Rams vs Vikings Will Be An Ultimate Chess Match At Crucial Moment For Kevin O’Connell
Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
The 2024 regular season has concluded, and all the excitement that came with following the 14-3 Minnesota Vikings comes down to a win-or-go-home game in Los Angeles. Minnesota won’t have long to wash out the sour taste in their mouths after their 31-9 loss to the Detroit Lions cost them home field advantage and a first-round bye. Nope, instead, they must face the LA Rams in the Wild Card round — the exact team and site where the Vikings lost 30-20 back in Week 8.
[Update: The game’s location has since been moved to Glendale due to the wildfires in California.]
There are, unfortunately, no consolation prizes or badges of honor after setting the NFL record for the most wins of any Wild Card team in NFL history.
Despite the offensive line playing their worst game of the season in Week 18, which allowed pressure up the middle regularly, Sam Darnold’s lack of footwork fundamentals resulted in consistent overthrows to open receivers. There was also a complete lack of adjustments in offensive play-calling on a night when it seemed like all the wrong buttons were pushed. All those issues must be fixed, and Kevin O’Connell has to do it against his old master, Sean McVay.
McVay knows O’Connell — his offensive coordinator from 2020-2021 — very well, and the Rams coach showed that knowledge by exploiting several vulnerabilities against his protege’s team in their first matchup.
Back in Week 8, the Rams got receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back from injury, the former of which took Brian Flores by surprise, perhaps explaining their seeming lack of defensive preparation. McVay and Matthew Stafford obliterated Minnesota’s defense, with Nacua pacing the Rams in receptions (seven) and yards (106), including six catches for first downs. Kupp also chipped in 51 yards on five catches and a touchdown of his own.
Of course, it should also be pointed out that the Vikings also played the Rams on Thursday Night Football, four days after their 31-29 loss to the incredibly physical Detroit Lions. They also lost Christian Darrisaw in the first half, with current fill-in Cam Robinson still being on the Jacksonville Jaguars.
But still, credit to McVay for pouncing on the opportunities with some smart scheming. At the time of their matchup, the Vikings played zone coverage at a 79.2% rate, which ranked third. Blake Cashman was also out with a turf toe injury, losing his presence in patrolling the middle of the field.
So the Rams’ play-caller attacked the middle of the field 20 times over 66 total plays, which included 32 carries, decisions that helped LA win the time of possession battle 33:37 to 26:23. The Rams also leveraged several screens and quick-throwing play designs to attack zone pockets, forcing the Vikings defense to react faster and hedging against an aging secondary without Cashman’s presence in the middle.
“A lot more screens this week [Week 8] than we’d seen against Detroit, so I’d say that’s a different thing,” Metellus added after the game. “For the most part, the stuff on tape we’ve been giving up, that’s going to be on there for the season, so it’s on us to stop that.”
Flores’ plan to counter Stafford was a break from his usual aggressive, pressure-reliant style. The Vikings had their sixth-lowest blitz rate of the season (35.3%) as Flores incorporated more simulated pressures, stunts, and disguised coverages to try and confuse the future Hall of Famer.
It didn’t work. The Vikings had their lowest number of pressures (four) of the season, including zero sacks. The lack of pass rush exposed Flores’ secondary as Stafford continued to execute in the middle of the field, generating nine explosive plays and four passing touchdowns as the Rams offensive line supplied good protection, helped by Flores’ lack of blitz packages and odd-man pressures.
Not only does McVay have an intimate knowledge of KOC’s offense, but Detroit gave LA plenty of things to look at when trying to exploit Darnold and the Vikings’ offense. They struggled in Week 18 as KOC continued to rely on explosive plays at the expense of any balance in running the ball. Despite career-highs in rushing attempts (255) and yards (1,138), Aaron Jones and the Vikings’ rushing attack have struggled to find continuity, especially in the red zone.
The Vikings passed on nine of their 11 goal-to-go situations against the Lions, and their offensive success in the red zone is just 41.9%, well below the 47.6% league average.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Vikings’ running backs have the highest rate in the league (72.2%) for being hit at the line of scrimmage inside their opponents’ 10-yard line. As frustrating as it is to watch the Vikings continue to pass in those situations, the lack of efficiency and leverage the offensive line is displaying in those situations makes it a somewhat defensible call.
Now, it’s not all doom and gloom looking ahead to Monday’s playoff showdown. Cashman is healthy this go-around to man the middle of the field. According to PFF, the Vikings run two high safeties at the highest rate in the NFL, which is a look that Stafford has struggled against, ranking 22nd in passing grade despite his success in Week 8.
The Rams’ offense has also been inconsistent lately, and the unit ranks as the second-worst first-quarter offense in the NFL (1.8 points per game). They failed to score a touchdown in 14 of 17 first quarters this season and were completely shut out in 11 of them. Meanwhile, the Vikings are tied for second in first-quarter points per game (6.41) and are tied for third in allowing points in the opening frame (2.8), so this game could be a recipe for getting out to a quick lead, which would be good to build confidence.
Darnold was pressured on 60 percent of his dropbacks against the Lions’ heavy man-coverage schemes, but the Rams are top five in zone coverage, relying on their stout front four to generate pressure. LA is 20th in blitz rate (23.1%), according to Pro Football Reference, and if the Rams play outside their tendency, Darnold has been one of the best QBs in the league against the blitz. The caveat is the Vikings offensive line — specifically on the interior — must play better.
Despite struggles with running the ball at times, the Vikings also rely on play action, with Darnold ranking third in the NFL in passing yards off play action. It’s a bad matchup for a Rams’ defense that ranks 25th in yards allowed per play action, according to PFF. Minnesota’s formula for success plays into a lot of the Rams’ weaknesses.
Monday will be the ultimate chess game matchup between the student in O’Connell and the teacher in McVay, as the two won a Super Bowl together in 2021 with the Rams. Both teams will certainly try to predict each other’s move by using their opening plays to probe for vulnerabilities, set the tone, and bait the other side into adjustments. How each team tailors their gameplans against the strengths and weaknesses of the other will be a telling tale of the continued evolution of both head coaches, with everything on the line.
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