Power Ranking X-Factors For the Vikings Playoff Run
Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images
With the Minnesota Vikings’ dominant (but somehow, lethargic) Monday night win against the Chicago Bears, the team is massively exceeding expectations from what was viewed as a fringe playoff team, at best. Now the 12-2 Vikings are in the thick of fighting for the No. 1 seed in the NFC to obtain home-field advantage and be rewarded with a first-round bye.
A lot is at stake (including a chance to win the NFC North) and if we learned anything from the heartbreaking end of the 2017 season, it’s that having home-field in an NFC Championship Game is a significant advantage. That boost is within grasp with three games left in the regular season.
Just like Latavius Murray and third-year players Danielle Hunter and Eric Kendricks in 2017, it takes both unsung veterans and younger players stepping up as the team approaches the most vital portion of the season as they jockey for playoff positioning.
Let’s do a power ranking of the under-the-radar X-Factors who will need to step up from now until the end of the season.
No. 4 – Dallas Turner
The 2024 first-round rookie edge rusher (No. 17 overall) from Alabama has been an afterthought for much of the season, with defensive free agent additions Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, and Blake Cashman stealing the spotlight and each enjoying banner seasons.
Entering Week 16, however, the effectiveness of edge rushers Greenard and Van Ginkel has waned a bit over the past couple of weeks. Despite seven pressures and a strip sack by Greenard against the Bears, since Week 13, Greenard has averaged a 52.8 PFF grade and Van Ginkel a 59.6 grade, a signal that the wear-and-tear of an NFL season may be catching up with them. But Brian Flores gave them a bit of a breather on Monday night by increasing Turner’s playing time.
Turner partook in his most defensive snaps in a game since Week 1 (34), resulting in three tackles and one sack, as well as the third-highest defensive grade on the team (71.2). His snap counts have been sporadic throughout the year, but in Weeks 13 and 14, he played 26 defensive snaps in each game. Flores is giving him more trust and responsibility, and Turner is proving he can handle it.
His sack against the Bears is a reminder of the tantalizing physical tools and skill set the Vikings invested so much draft capital to acquire. While his consistency has been lacking, that can easily be explained by the growing pains most rookies face, as well as playing in Flores’ complex hybrid defensive schemes.
Nasty move from Dallas Turner against Darnell Wright on his sack. Dip, bend, slide, explode to the QB. pic.twitter.com/QJJFN9LDOh
— Will Ragatz (@WillRagatz) December 17, 2024
Turner’s sequence of acceleration, shoulder dip, body bend, agility, pursuit, and finish on that sack is not normal, not even by NFL standards. There are not many players that have that repertoire in their tool bag, and the Vikings could have another disruptor on defense if he can keep refining his consistency in the final three regular season games. It’s easy to see how his athleticism and fresh legs will help in the playoffs.
No. 3 – The Vikings’ Backfield
It’s odd to include a backfield that features a star in Aaron Jones, but here we are. Kevin O’Connell’s identity is the passing attack, which leaves the running game lost in the shuffle at times. But the Vikings eventually showed last Monday that when the passing game sputters, they can leverage their running backs to control the game.
Jones had 106 scrimmage yards on 20 touches (5.3 average) and a touchdown against the Bears, along with Cam Akers adding another goal-line rushing touchdown in the fourth quarter. The two backs proved they can provide a threat to support the passing game, even when Darnold is having an off night.
The Vikings’ offense is predicated on explosive plays, as evident by Darnold leading the league in throws over 20 yards (53) and the team being one of the league leaders in explosive play rate (18.7%), and yes, most of those big-time plays are via the pass.
However, Monday proved that the team does have a viable running game that can carry them at times, even though it may not be their identity. The pass-centric offense will still need to rely on Jones and Akers being effective to set up play action and support Darnold on those days when he might not be at his sharpest. The Vikings have to keep recognizing it, or it could be an early exit in the playoffs.
No. 2 – Ivan Pace Jr.
It is no coincidence that Pace’s absence over the past three weeks lines up perfectly with the worst three-game stretch of run defense for Minnesota.
Prior to Pace’s hamstring injury, the Vikings were first in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (74.7). While they’re still second in the league (89.1), they’ve given up 141.7 rushing yards per game with Pace out.
Pace has an 85.6 run defense grade, which comes from his strength in shedding blocks and his field vision to defend gap discipline. He is also strong as a pass rusher, with an 83.2 pass rush grade, which gives a plausible reason for the Vikings only having four sacks in the past three weeks.
His presence in the middle of the field has been missed and will be a welcomed return (which, cross your fingers, might be as early as the Packers game) to support a defense that hasn’t been at its sharpest since the injury.
No. 1 – Cam Robinson
We head to the trenches for the biggest X-Factor on the Vikings: left tackle Cam Robinson. The offensive line can be shaky at times, and as the anchor of the line, Robinson’s play will garner the most attention as the unit tries to stabilize a quarterback and offense that needs plays to develop for explosive gains.
Robinson, who Minnesota traded for after Pro Bowler Christian Darrisaw suffered a season-ending knee injury, had his worst game as a Viking against the Bears on Monday. His four penalties (three false starts, one illegal formation) killed their offensive rhythm and were a big part of why the game felt so lethargic.
But despite his struggles last game, he has been what the Vikings hoped for when they gave up a 2026 conditional fifth-round draft pick. His run blocking needs more consistency, but when the offense is focused on passing the rock, his 75.6 PFF pass blocking grade answers the call.
With Brian O’Neill dinged up, that makes the offensive line even less formidable, and Robinson will be needed more than ever to limit penalties and defend Darnold’s blind spot so he can continue to go big-game hunting downfield while avoiding the pressure that can cause him to put the ball in harm’s way.
The Vikings are gearing up for the playoffs and have a handful of players that, if they are playing their best football by the time the playoffs start, could catapult this team onto the ultimate playoff run.
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