Don’t Hold Strength Of Schedule Against Sam Darnold
Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images
If you’re an NFC contender looking to dismiss the Minnesota Vikings as a paper tiger, it’s really easy to do. All you have to do is say three words: Strength of schedule.
Never mind that the Vikings have vanquished the 11-4 Green Bay Packers twice. Don’t look at how they dismantled the 9-7, playoff-bound Houston Texans. And of course, feel free to ignore them doubling up the 8-8 playoff-hopeful Atlanta Falcons, or taking a tough game on the road against the 8-8 Seattle Seahawks.
Nope, all you have to do is say, “Well, they beat the Bears twice and the AFC South” and call it a day. Congratulations, you just did an analysis.
ESPN. Keep yappin about the Vikings.
They’ll finish with the harder strength of schedule than the Eagles.
But they don’t want to admit that. 😂 pic.twitter.com/3PCwuV1b34
— Bull Run (@run_bull_) December 17, 2024
NFL talking heads have (with some exceptions) waited for the underdog Vikings to turn back into a pumpkin. Bitter NFC fans, most of them residing in the North, have been looking for a way to dismiss them. It’s not new. We remember how the 2022 Vikings were dismissed as frauds, despite their 13-4 record. We also remember how the national media and naysayers were proven right in the playoffs.
It looks like we’re getting Part 2 of that talk in 2024, with another 13-win team (and perhaps more) getting discounted as a fluke. Watch their games, and even the announcers seem surprised that they keep on winning. A big part of the incredulity is the emergence of Sam Darnold, who went from a notorious draft bust to a 35-touchdown-tossing juggernaut overnight.
The thing is, you can’t dismiss Darnold, certainly not because of his strength of schedule. He’s had his biggest games against the best teams in the league. Including the Vikings, there are 12 teams that have already clinched spots in the playoffs. The Vikings have played five of them: The Packers twice, the Texans, the Detroit Lions, and LA Rams.
Darnold has done nothing in those games… except go Sicko Mode. During those five games, he’s gone 3-2, throwing 13 touchdowns against two interceptions. The highlight reels are every bit as impressive as the numbers.
Darnold ➡️ Addison for the Vikings TD 😤
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/8Xck6Z2MTP
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) December 29, 2024
These aren’t pushover defenses, either. Detroit, Green Bay, and Houston are all ranked by PFF as top-10 teams in terms of coverage grade. The Packers hadn’t allowed a completion of 30-plus yards until Darnold found Jalen Nailor for a touchdown on Sunday.
But against the cream of the crop, Darnold is crushing it by almost any metric. Remember how we said there were 12 teams that have already clinched the playoffs? Let’s look at how Darnold stacks up against those other 11 quarterbacks while playing against playoff teams. We’ll start with:
TD-to-INT Differential vs. Playoff Teams
Lamar Jackson: +11 (8 GP, 14 TD, 3 INT)
SAM DARNOLD: +11 (5 GP, 13 TD, 2 INT)
Jared Goff: +7 (6 GP, 14 TD, 7 INT)
Matthew Stafford: +7 (5GP, 10 TD, 3 INT)
Patrick Mahomes: +6 (6 GP, 10 TD, 4 INT)
Josh Allen: +6 (5 GP, 7 TD, 1 INT)
Jordan Love: +5 (7 GP, 13 TD, 8 INT)
Jayden Daniels: +5 (4 GP, 8 TD, 3 INT)
Jalen Hurts: +4 (6 GP, 6 TD, 2 INT)
Justin Herbert: +3 (4 GP, 3 TD, 0 INT)
Russell Wilson: +2 (5 GP, 6 TD, 4 INT)
C.J. Stroud: -3 (6 GP, 5 TD, 8 INT)
Right away, we see Darnold at the top of the list, hanging out tied for first with a three-time MVP in Jackson. But Darnold’s not just been amazing at getting huge plays and limiting turnovers, he’s also been as accurate as anyone — again, against some of the best cover units the NFL has to offer.
Completion Percentage vs. Playoff Teams
DARNOLD: 72.8%
Goff: 69.8%
Stafford: 69.6%
Mahomes: 69.4%
Jackson: 65.0%
Hurts: 64.7%
Herbert: 63.1%
Daniels: 62.1%
Wilson: 61.5%
Love: 60.7%
Stroud: 60.6%
Allen: 56.1%
And for good measure, he’s also been able to keep pushing the ball down the field against top teams better than any (current) playoff quarterback.
Yards Per Attempt vs. Playoff Teams
DARNOLD: 8.82
Allen: 8.24
Jackson: 8.17
Goff: 8.09
Hurts: 7.89
Love: 7.51
Mahomes: 7.39
Stafford: 7.31
Stroud: 6.70
Herbert: 6.62
Daniels: 6.57
Wilson: 6.09
How on earth do you dismiss all that?
Looking at how well he’s performed against playoff teams should not just give Vikings fans confidence going into Week 18, but also heading into the playoffs. This isn’t a player who shrinks from the moment. He’s raised his performance in the biggest games Minnesota has put in front of him.
Darnold doesn’t just stand out when stacking up his stats against playoff teams to the best quarterbacks of 2024. Here’s how he looks compared to the signal-callers leading the 12-plus-win Vikings teams of the last 30 years:
Sam Darnold, 2024, vs. Playoff Teams:
5 GP, 110-for-151 (72.8%), 8.82 Yards/Attempt, 13:2 TD:INT
Kirk Cousins, 2022, vs. Playoff Teams:
5 GP; 123-for-197 (62.4%), 5.87 Y/A, 7:5 TD:INT
Case Keenum, 2017, vs. Playoff Teams:
4 GP; 99-for-149 (66.4%), 6.40 Y/A, 5:3 TD:INT
Brett Favre, 2009, vs. Playoff Teams:
5 GP; 109-for-163 (66.9%), 7.73 Y/A, 13:3 TD:INT
Randall Cunningham, 1998, vs. Playoff Teams
4 GP; 73-for-127 (57.5%), 10.04 Y/A, 13:2 TD:INT
It has to feel good seeing this laid out, knowing that the two closest players to Darnold — given both Favre and Cunningham took big shots down the field without many turnovers — were the two closest looks the Vikings have had at a Super Bowl since the 1970s. It’s not the most Minnesota Vikings fan thing to say, but I’ll take those odds.
So bring on the Detroit Lions in Week 17, and bring on any playoff team the NFC has to offer. This isn’t a team that’s benefitted against a cupcake schedule, and Darnold isn’t a QB that’s feasted on bottom-feeders. They’ve held their own against the best the NFL has to offer, and it’s hard to see why that should change over the next month.
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