The Commanders Make For the Perfect Lions’ Feast
Credit: Junfu Han - Imagn Images
After a rest and recovery, the Detroit Lions returned to work on Monday morning. Aaron Glenn and Ben Johnson may have been weary from head coaching interviews, while Dan Campbell may have ringing in his ears after listening to Master of Puppets on full blast for the billionth time. But however the Lions spent their bye week, they returned to work to find their next opponent would be the Washington Commanders.
At a glance, the Commanders are the perfect scenario for the Lions. While they finished the regular season with a 12-5 record, they have just one win against a team currently in the playoffs. Their head coach wears a backward hat in his mid-50s, and his crowning achievement was blowing a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl. Even their star quarterback is rookie Jayden Daniels, who is about to step into the biggest game of his life on Saturday afternoon.
While a good matchup on paper isn’t always what it seems during the playoffs, the Commanders appear to be a perfect feast for a Lions team hungry for a return trip to the NFC Championship Game.
That’s not to say the Commanders don’t pose a problem for Detroit. Washington started the season with a 7-2 record, but lost three straight games to put their playoff push in jeopardy. A win over the Tennesse Titans before their bye week pushed them to 8-5 and began a six-game winning streak to close the regular season, which included a 36-33 win over the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 16.
Even Zane Gonzalez’s bank-shot field goal at the end of a 23-20 Wild Card victory over the Buccaneers showed this isn’t a team easily rattled, a quality that they’ll need heading into Ford Field. But you still have to wonder about Daniels, who has shown he’s more than just a typical rookie.
Daniels has become the latest dual-threat quarterback to take the league by storm. With 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns against nine interceptions, he’s the front-runner for this league’s Offensive Rookie of the Year Award and just led Washington to its first playoff victory since 2006. But as much work as his arm has done for him, Daniels also has a type of running threat the Lions haven’t seen much of this season.
Detroit has played three quarterbacks known for their rushing ability this season. A full-strength Lions defense was able to hold Kyler Murray to 207 yards passing with a touchdown and an interception in a win over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 3 and also kept him in check on the ground with five carries for 45 yards.
The Lions allowed 10 carries and 61 yards to Anthony Richardson in a Week 12 win over the Indianapolis Colts but his difficulties in the passing game showed, completing 11-of-28 throws for 172 scoreless yards.
Then there was Josh Allen, who racked up 430 yards of total offense and scored four touchdowns (two passing, two rushing) in Detroit’s Week 15 loss to the Buffalo Bills.
The Allen performance leaves some scars for Lions fans, but comes with some caveats. Detroit’s defense was severely depleted by that point of the season, and Allen represents the high end of dual-threat quarterbacks. He and Lamar Jackson are the two favorites to secure league MVP honors.
The good news is, while Daniels is a strong quarterback, he’s not nearly on Allen’s level. In some ways, he could be on a similar path that Murray has walked in his career, and he holds some deficiencies that the Lions can attack.
Daniels has fared well against the blitz this season with an 81.9 overall grade in those situations, according to Pro Football Focus. But that hasn’t stopped teams from sending extra attackers, as Daniels has seen the highest blitz rate in the NFL at 38.8% of his dropbacks.
The reason is that Daniels uses his legs against the blitz more than his arm, with a league-high 29 scrambles. And it’s not even close. Caleb Williams is next on the list with 18 scrambles, while Jalen Hurts and Bo Nix are third with 13 scrambles each.
This is a bit of a problem when you consider the Lions have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks (454) and are tied for third with six touchdowns allowed to quarterbacks. Daniels also does a modest job of avoiding sacks while scrambling, with a modest 22 percent pass-to-sack rate against the blitz this season.
The key will be to get Daniels to throw the ball and when he does, the Lions should be able to take advantage in man coverage. Detroit’s man coverage rate has spiked out of necessity over the past few weeks, and Washington’s top targets haven’t put up great numbers against man looks this season.
Dyami Brown is Washington’s leading receiver against man coverage with 2.22 yards per route run, but he’s also had just 15 targets against man coverage this season. Terry McLaurin is the Commanders’ top overall receiver, but ranks 57th among qualifying pass-catchers this season with just 1.74 yards per route run against man.
The return of Alex Anzalone also helped Detroit improve their man coverage against the Vikings, but tight end Zach Ertz hasn’t been a threat against man anyway, with 0.93 yards per route run this season.
Stopping a running game led by Austin Ekeler (4.8 yards per carry) and Brian Robinson Jr. (4.3 YPC) will be the Lions’ next priority, but if they can pounce on Daniels with the blitz, there’s a chance they can neutralize Washington’s ground game.
From there, it’s a matter of scoring points, and the Lions offense has been able to do that all season long. With the return of David Montgomery in the backfield, the Lions can smash a Commanders run defense that ranked third in yards (2,337) and yards per carry (4.8) allowed this season.
Anything can happen in the playoffs, and Daniels would become a legend if he could pull out a win in Detroit. But the style the Commanders have played this season falls right into the hands of the Lions. If Detroit’s blitz gets home, Daniels could struggle and the Commanders could become a magnificent feast for a team starving to march through the playoffs.
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