Dolphins Must Embrace Boredom In Week 1
Credit: Jim Rassol / Imagn Images
They say the third time’s the charm, and that’s “huge, if true” news for the Miami Dolphins, who have Mike McDaniel entering Year 3 of his tenure. By now, most football fans with a pulse know McDaniel’s backstory, education, quirkiness, and mad-scientist style of offensive game planning.
McDaniel came to South Florida after making a name for himself with the San Francisco 49ers as an offensive guru with a doctorate in the running game. He even brought guys like Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson along with him. McDaniel’s backs collectively led the NFL in yards per carry last season (5.1) and tied for the lead in rushing touchdowns with 27.
Looking at the raw statistics and the individual big plays for Miami, it’s initially hard to knock anything about McDaniel’s play-calling. In fact, many of his calls include motions and nuances that are rather unique. From the different formations they will line up in, to the ways quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will misdirect defenses after the snap, there are so many small, but important moving parts in McDaniel’s scheme and system.
Tagovailoa and McDaniel are also spoiled with wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, which has caused McDaniel’s play-calling to lean toward the pass in crunch time. Even in situations where nearly the entire NFL would choose to run, McDaniel has been known to deviate from his ground attack.
Sure, gunning for big plays works out for Miami most of the time. The Dolphins didn’t just lead the NFL in yards per game, but they also had a league-best 255 plays that went for 10-plus yards. The NFL average was 205. Impressive!
But once we dig into certain situations, especially third or fourth-and-short, we see the spots where McDaniel has to show confidence in his running backs. When needing three or fewer yards on third down, Miami called just 18 run plays versus 41 passes. As a result, their explosive offense fell to the middle of the pack, converting just 59.3% of those plays.
We see the fear of the rush become even more striking on third/fourth-and-one. Miami was ranked last in the NFL in rushing attempts in those situations with 15. The league’s average run rate in these spots was 72.8% (870 runs vs. 325 passes), but Miami ran the ball on just 48.4% of those plays. They were the only team below 50%.
This was despite getting better results on the ground, converting on eight of their 15 rushing plays, as opposed to going 6-for-16 when trying to pass. Neither percentage is anything to write home about, but it’s not like throwing more is leading to greater success.
The league-wide conversion percentage of running on third/fourth-and-one is 72.8% (633-for-870; as opposed to 57.8% on passing plays). In any other scenario, picking up three feet is a breeze for Miami, but this is when McDaniel overthinks. Sometimes he would put his ball carriers in the worst position to gain positive yards, such as when utilizing a screen pass. Essentially, it seemed McDaniel relied on speed over power on these plays.
This goes a long way to explain why Miami fades on the road, especially against top-tier teams. The “warm-weather team going to the cold” narrative is a stigma that a team from South Florida will always deal with, but McDaniel also ignores the best way to have success on the road. When you’re in both the elements and a loud stadium, the best way to quiet things down is to grind out first downs with a tedious and efficient rushing attack.
In 2023, the Dolphins picked up 64 first downs on the ground at home, as opposed to just 49 on the road. At Hard Rock Stadium, the Phins averaged 149.6 rushing yards per game on 28.7 attempts. On the road, those numbers dipped to 120.4 yards on 24.8 carries.
Overall, Miami created 223 first downs from the pass last season, the third-most in the league. When it came to rushing first downs, their 113 was tied for 12th. These figures need to become more balanced. If the Dolphins prove they can pick up short yardage, even when everyone expects a run, that will go a long way toward making a move into the NFL’s elite tier.
Having Hill and Waddle is a fantastic luxury, the real money-maker in this league is the boring stuff. By simply extending drives, keeping the clock moving, and forcing an opposing defense to stay on the field, the Dolphins can thrill Miami Gardens by being a bit duller.
McDaniel and the Phins will have their first test on Sunday when the Jacksonville Jaguars come to Hard Rock Stadium at 1:00 PM on Sunday. The Jags’ defense ranked 20th last season in allowing third and short conversions, letting their opponents move the chains 60.6% of the time. The time is now for McDaniel and his Dolphins to show they can fix their issues.
Up Next