Chris Grier’s Spotty Draft Record Goes Beyond His Flops
Credit: Jasen Vinlove via Imagn Images
Miami Dolphins general manager Chris Grier is preparing to enter his 10th NFL Draft season. While his hit rate varies in the opinions of pundits and fans, his eye for talent is rather good. But even when smashing home runs like Laremy Tunsil, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Christian Wilkins, Grier has shown one consistent troublesome trait.
As super-agent Ari Gold once said in Entourage, “Bombs don’t kill careers; do you know what kills careers? Passing, on a hit.” This ideology applies to football as easily as it does to the entertainment industry. We can see this play out when looking at the hits Grier passed on over the past decade.
Tunsil and Fitzpatrick were great picks, since each of them are perennial Pro Bowlers… just never with Miami. Yes, those players were flipped to kick-start a rebuild after another failed Dolphins rebuild, but it’s hard to wonder what could have been. As for Wilkins, he became a salary cap casualty when the Dolphins oriented their franchise around their passing game and didn’t have the sort of money left that he was able to command, but that doesn’t make his presence any less noticeable.
And those are just the hits Grier passed on after he optioned them at the draft.
Let’s start at the 2016 Draft, when the Dolphins improved as Tunsil unexpectedly slid down the draft board to No. 13 overall. With hindsight being 20/20, there were a trio of Pro Bowl players picked after Tunsil: safety Keanu Neal, center Ryan Kelly, and defensive tackle Kenny Clark. The second round had All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones go to the Kansas City Chiefs.
It’s tough to be too hard on Grier here. Tunsil was a solid player, even if they didn’t hold onto him, and one pick after Jones went to the Chiefs, Grier snagged All-Pro Xavien Howard, who has been with the Dolphins ever since.
Now let’s go to the infamous Charles Harris draft in 2017. Not only was he a certifiable rotten tomato in South Florida, it’s hard to fathom why the Dolphins passed on some of the elite talent that came afterward. Eight picks later, the Pittsburgh Steelers stole a generational player in T.J. Watt, who is out-performing Harris in career sacks by a margin of 108 to 19.5 (3.5 with Miami).
Looking at 2018 (the Fitzpatrick draft), we can see a run of All-Pro players who haven’t changed teams come off the board. Most notably, fellow safety Derwin James, who made the Pro Bowl in 2024. Grier had the right idea but picked the wrong lead actor. James just finished his sixth season with the Chargers and is signed through 2026.
Now, hindsight and all that, but defensive tackles Vita Vea of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Daron Payne of the Washinton Commanders came off the board in the two picks immediately following Fitzpatrick. Of course, each of those guys are still with the teams that drafted them. And lest we forget: the last pick of the first round that year was Baltimore Ravens quarterback, Lamar Jackson.
But defensive tackle would get addressed the following draft with the Wilkins pick at 13th overall. It was a box office hit, until Wilkins bailed before Grier could produce the sequel to his rookie contract. It doesn’t help that four picks later, the New York Giants selected Dexter Lawrence, a top-three interior lineman in the league who is signed through the 2027 season. Two picks after Wilkins saw the Tennessee Titans take Jeffery Simmons, a two-time Pro Bowler who is inked to be in Nashville until 2028.
Lastly, the Dolphins passed on Josh Jacobs… or any other running back until the seventh round. That’s understandable… until you realize their rushing leader the previous season was Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Now we get to 2020, which was Grier’s chance to forge a sturdy structure to build a franchise on, but the critics are mixed on this draft. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa headlined the group with the fifth overall pick, but his status as a franchise quarterback is much more debated than Justin Herbert (sixth overall), Jordan Love (26th), and Jalen Hurts (53rd), all of whom were playoff participants in 2024.
Then we get to the fruit of the Minkah trade: Austin Jackson, picked over All-Universe wide receiver Justin Jefferson (22nd). Also in the 2024 playoff picture (as well as a few lackluster commercials), Jefferson is box-office gold. He’s currently the NFL’s all-time leader in receiving yards per game, drafted after a season where the Dolphins had just DeVante Parker, Jakeem Grant, Mack Hollins, Isaiah Ford, and Lynn Bowden Jr. waiting for Tua. Oops.
But Jackson was at least a solid tackle. Making matters worse was the Noah Igbinoghene Saga. First the Dolphins elected to trade back from 26th overall (Love) to 30th, missing out on Pro Bowler Patrick Queen (28th). Then, once again passing on a weapon for their quarterback in Tee Higgins (33rd overall), Grier took a defensive back in a secondary that already had Howard and Byron Jones, a top-tier cornerback tandem.
Missing out on elite wideouts meant Miami had to invest there with Jaylen Waddle at sixth overall, passing on franchise cornerstone tackle Penei Sewell. Although Waddle has had a solid start to his career, this past season was an off-year after receiving a hell of a payday. In the meantime, Sewell is the All-Pro who has arguably been the biggest roar in a revived Detroit Lions franchise. His second crack at the first round was Jaelan Phillips at Pick 18, whose injury issues are his only fault. We can’t pile on Grier here, as he’s a valuable member of the team and the community.
No NFL GM has a perfect record through a decade of drafting, and no head of a movie studio is going to produce an uninterrupted run of hits. But while the camera is still rolling for Waddle, Phillips, and 2024 first-rounder Chop Robinson, the early part of Grier’s tenure has been riddled with hits that ultimately slipped through his fingers or complete misses. Those missed hits didn’t catch up to him after this season, but at some point, the people financing a football team or blockbuster films need a return on their investment. Grier might have to deliver, and soon.
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