How Buffalo Can Topple Derrick Henry And Win The Run Battle
Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images
While the Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens isn’t quite as anticipated as the Bills/Kansas City Chiefs rematch most across the NFL are hoping for, it’s a close, close second. It’s a game that pits the consensus top two MVP candidates head-to-head in Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson.
It’s pretty obvious to say those future Hall of Famers will have a big impact on the game, but the aerial attack isn’t likely to determine who will match up with the Chiefs or the Texans (OK, let’s be honest, it’s going to be the Chiefs) next week. It’s much likelier that whichever team can control the running game on both sides of the ball is going to advance.
The Bills have more than enough talent to topple the Ravens. They’ve proved it with a better record in the regular season, and by actually beating the Chiefs, something the Ravens couldn’t do. The problem with their first matchup with Baltimore (one of the Bills’ only two losses before Week 18’s pseudo-bye week) was that they couldn’t control the ground game.
The Ravens jumped out to a fast start, which put the Bills’ offense in the rare position of having to be one-dimensional. When you’re down 21-3 at halftime, it’s not shocking to abandon the run, but even worse, the run attempts they had weren’t good. James Cook finished the game with nine rushes for 39 yards, and Ray Davis carried the ball seven times for 11 yards.
Not only was the offense unable to get things going on the ground, the run defense was awful also. They allowed Derrick Henry to rush 24 times for 199 yards and a touchdown, with Jackson adding another 54 yards and a score.
DERRICK HENRY TO THE HOUSE ON THE 1ST PLAY 🤯
87 YARDS TD.
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/PG2LE1xyQs
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 30, 2024
So how do the Bills make this result different in a game against the No. 1 rushing offense and defense? Even in the games that the Ravens have lost, their run game was rarely bad, except for their game against the Philadelphia Eagles and Saquon Barkley. Even then, though Barkley had a strong game, it felt like more an elite player getting his numbers rather than the Ravens’ defense struggling. After all, Barkley averaged only 4.7 yards per attempt, which is one the lowest marks of his season. Take, for example, the following week against the Carolina Panthers, where he finished with 6.2 yards per game.
The game isn’t to exploit vulnerabilities in the Ravens’ D. They aren’t going to let up many big plays on the ground — they have given up only three rushes of more than 20 yards and zero over 40 yards. This is more about what James Cook and Company can do to at least be somewhat of a threat.
The strength of the Bills’ rushing game has come behind the center or right side of the offensive line, where Buffalo has gained 867 of their 1,129 yards. Playing to that strength is going to be key. It’s also going to be about not abandoning the run game, and to make sure that happens, they can’t find themselves down by multiple scores early.
Which means that, while Cook must be solid, this game is going to come down to the run defense. The same talking point has persisted all season: the Bills can’t stop the run. This was painfully true early in the season. It wasn’t just Henry who torched Buffalo’s defense. Breece Hall rushed for 113 yards, Kyren Williams rushed for 87 yards and two touchdowns, and Jonathan Taylor rushed for 112 yards.
But lately, the Bills’ run defense has shown some signs of life. In their second game against the New York Jets, Breece Hall managed only 45 yards. Last week against the Denver Broncos, their top rusher was quarterback Bo Nix, who finished with 43 yards.
So what has changed? After the Bills’ 31-7 Wild Card win over the Broncos, there was a common sentiment coming from the locker room about the team having switched on a quiet confidence.
“Just playing good team defense,” Bills defensive end Greg Rousseau said. “I feel like third-down success starts with first down, so not having big gains on first down so we don’t get into those 2nd-&-2 or 3rd-&-1 situations. When it’s 3rd-&-8, 3rd-&-6, it’s more manageable for us.”
Rousseau also believes that in the last few weeks, the group has had a better focus, especially against the run.
“At times this season, we’ve had a sense of urgency for the run game… It’s playoff football, so we’re up for the challenge. We’re amped. So there is no lack of urgency or lackadaisicalness or none of that. We’re going to go.”
Having a sense of urgency is nice, but that only goes so far in finding a way to slow down an elite running back. Henry is averaging a whopping 9.5 yards per carry around the left side of the line. Compare that to around the right side of the line, where he is averaging 3.1 yards per carry. Shifting the defense over to the left side and forcing Henry to beat them somewhere else must be the core of their gameplan.
Want to know another way to slow down the Ravens’ run game? Keeping the ball out of the hands of their offense altogether, which can be accomplished by putting together long drives by moving the chains methodically on the ground. It’s not an exact science, but it’s not that crazy of a statement to say one of the best ways to slow down the Ravens’ stars is by having a strong run game of their own. As Rousseau said, it’s been a complete team effort that has changed the tone, and that’s what it will take to get that showdown in the AFC Championship game against the Chiefs.
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