Can Buffalo’s Insane Turnover Record Persevere Through A Super Bowl Run?
Chris Pedota via Imagn Images
Do a Google search for “fewest turnovers in a season in NFL history,” and one of the first links that comes up will be the website for Guinness World Records. That page lists the New Orleans Saints, who only committed eight turnovers in the 2019 season. The 2024 Buffalo Bills have officially tied that record, which allows them to be mentioned in the same rarified air as the 2019 Saints and the woman with the world’s longest fingernails. Elite company!
The Bills have made mincemeat of their weaker opponents, and turnovers have played a big role in those games. However, every team in the AFC playoff picture has at least a plus-6 turnover differential, and Buffalo’s turnover differential has been “only” plus-4 in their five games against playoff teams. The Denver Broncos picked off 15 passes and arguably have the league’s best defensive back on the opposite sideline in Patrick Surtain II. Continuing to rely on dominating the turnover battle to lead them to a run to the promised land might be wishful thinking.
The most unique thing about their record is that all eight of the Bills’ turnovers (six picks, two fumbles) in 2024 were committed by Josh Allen. That’s still a fairly efficient total for the quarterback, but it’s a mind-boggling achievement for everyone else on the Bills roster. While Allen has been as effective at ball security as an athletic cup, he’ll have to keep making good decisions when the pressure is ramped up the highest.
But so far, so good. “The job that Josh has done [in] being smart with the ball, throwing the ball away when he needs to, sliding when he needs to as well,” head coach Sean McDermott said. “His level of decision-making has increased this season and been very important to our team, and the wins that we’ve had.”
Unfortunately for the defense, Buffalo won’t have the luxury of playing the Desmond Ridders of the world in the postseason, so they likely won’t create turnovers at the blistering rate they’re used to. In the first round, they will have to go up against Bo Nix, who, being a rookie, has been up and down at times this year. Still, he has only thrown a single pick over his last three games. Elsewhere, Lamar Jackson (Allen’s main competition for MVP this season) has turned the ball over a mere nine times on 600-plus combined passes and runs.
“Every team in the playoffs is dangerous,” McDermott said to the media on Friday. “This is high-level competition, high stakes, so, it doesn’t matter what your seed is, that’s been played out over and over again, year after year, so it’s who plays the best on the field.”
While Buffalo has played largely turnover-free football, they have not been completely absolved of mistakes.
This game eventually came down to (2) terrible McDermott decisions…
1. Accepting the penalty which led to a TD rather than a FG attempt
2. Calling a run on the goal line, knowing if you didn't get it you would burn a TO and have .0003% chance of winning
— Gregory 🏈 (@TheSportsBully1) December 9, 2024
While Allen’s play has been superhuman, and his gunslinger mentality has been toned down this year, Sean McDermott has made some clock management decisions that even Allen hasn’t been able to bail him out of. Decisions like throwing on three consecutive plays against the Texans while Houston had three timeouts, or running a QB sneak, causing Buffalo to burn a much-needed timeout against the Rams have led to extra scrutiny on McDermott. Arguably, they’re the reason why Buffalo doesn’t have home field advantage, which they very much might regret if they can’t take a win at Arrowhead Stadium.
Why mention those? Because those clock management mishaps sunk Buffalo in games that didn’t see them commit a single turnover. It’s another example of why turnover differential might not dictate playoff success.
However, much to my surprise given McDermott’s occasional poor clock management, he has actually been the NFL’s best head coach in terms of fourth-down decision-making.
The Athletic's Austin Mock put together a list of 4th down decision makers who gave their team the best edge in games this season. #Bills head coach Sean McDermott edged out Detroit's Dan Campbell for the top spot in the league. https://t.co/VC19O1Nhrm pic.twitter.com/OQKG4wwAqs
— Chris Brown (@ChrisBrownBills) January 9, 2025
Granted, much of that has to do with the fact that McDermott has a one-of-one quarterback whose name he can call on fourth down. That said, even with turnovers being a non-issue in 2024, games in the playoffs are often won and lost by a single decision or play call (just ask Pete Carroll if you don’t believe me). What’s more, the teams in the playoffs have also been dominant in the turnover battle, so Buffalo will have to find other ways to win besides pouncing on mistakes from other teams.
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