Can Buffalo Overcome The Brutal AFC Playoff Math Equation?
Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Despite a deep seeded Bills love, it’s awfully hard to deny that it’s been Patrick Mahomes‘ league. His Kansas City Chiefs have been so successful that it’s breaking fans’ brains and creating conspiracy theories at a level not seen in sports since the NBA (we can not stress enough: allegedly!) popped an envelope in the freezer. This is his fifth Super Bowl trip in seven seasons as a starter. That makes it a great time to be a Chief, and an awful time to be anyone else.
Especially in the AFC. The two quarterbacks who’ve knocked Mahomes off in a playoff game was Tom Brady (as a New England Patriot and Tampa Bay Buccaneer) and Joe Burrow. That era has coincided with several quarterbacks who would (easily) be the best in the NFC: Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert, to name a few.
And of course, Josh Allen, who started his career in 2018… Mahomes’ first year as a full-time starter. It’s tough to say that Allen wouldn’t have already taken the Bills to the Super Bowl had it not been for Mahomes. He’s been to two AFC Championship Games, only to be thwarted by Mahomes twice, this last time by a meager three points on the road. A loss to Burrow’s Cincinnati Bengals in 2021 is a blemish on his record, sure, but Allen boasts a 2-0 record against Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens.
And if he was in the NFC? Forget it. Who’s keeping Allen out of the Super Bowl there? Maybe Matthew Stafford? Jalen Hurts? Neither are in the same league as Mahomes/Burrow/Jackson.
All that would feel better if there was literally anything Buffalo could do about it. Because they — nor the Ravens, Bengals, or anyone else in the AFC — are going to have Mahomes removed as an obstacle. There’s not going to be conference realignment. Allen/Burrow/Jackson all started their careers near the start of the Mahomes Era, meaning they can’t rely on Mahomes fading out of the picture in the same way Mahomes waited out Brady.
That’s a harsh reality for Buffalo, because even if Allen has a decade more of him lining up at quarterback… well, there are only so many Super Bowls to go around, even in a relatively long career. Sure, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Drew Brees all got rings during their primes, which coincided with Brady’s, but those opportunities are few and far between.
Mind you, that was with those elite quarterbacks having a relatively even AFC/NFC split. Throw Rodgers and Brees in the AFC for their primes, and what happens then? Would Rodgers or Brees have gotten theirs? Or would they have found themselves permanently thwarted by Brady or Manning? How do you navigate that situation?
That’s the question that Allen, Burrow, and Jackson (a combined 1-6 against Playoff Mahomes) are facing now. Meanwhile, Herbert (0-2 in the playoffs) and C.J. Stroud (2-2; losses to Mahomes and Jackson) are going to need to figure out how to not become Phillip Rivers — a Hall of Fame-caliber signal-caller who never got past the AFC quarterback gauntlet.
Let’s say that Mahomes falls one short of Brady’s record 10 Super Bowl appearances (which already feels bold to assume), “only” giving him five over the next decade. That leaves just five bites of the apple for anyone else. Allen, Burrow, Jackson, Herbert, Stroud, Bo Nix, or any other quarterback who emerges in the AFC will have to duke it out for those appearances.
If that’s the case, then Allen doesn’t have a decade to lead Buffalo to glory. He has maybe five years, and we simply don’t know when those are going to come. We have no idea of knowing for sure whether Kansas City will stumble, or if the Bills truly have the right mix, or if the breaks will go Buffalo’s way in the moments that matter most.
All this means that Buffalo can’t necessarily play to be a perennial contender. Sure, with Allen, you’re always going to have a semblance of a shot, but when the moment arrives, the Bills have to go all-in. Maybe they feel that moment is 2025, given that they narrowly missed a Super Bowl trip this year. If so, great. They’re gonna have to go all-in on something; whether it’s moving heaven and earth to get a top wide receiver like Tee Higgins, or make a splash with Myles Garrett, or another major move to put up or shut up.
If it costs too much draft capital or pushes talented players out a few years after your window for besting the Chiefs, so be it. All that can matter is pushing Mahomes off the mountain once, then taking care of business in the following Super Bowl. If the Bills learned anything from the past half-decade, it’s that you can’t passively wait for The Year. They need to create it, or Allen’s Bills may end up in the same dustbin of history as the Rivers Era Chargers.
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