Buffalo Can’t Fall For the Cooper Kupp Trap
Credit: Gary A. Vasquez via Imagn Images
Hey, Buffalo Bills fans, can I interest you in a wide receiver who hasn’t played more than 12 games in the last three years and hasn’t finished with more than 812 yards in any of the seasons? No? OK, what if he carries a cap hit of almost $30 million?
Wait, still no? Well, that’s exactly what the Bills would be getting if they decide to swing a trade for Cooper Kupp, a 31-year-old receiver who looks well past his prime. After Kupp announced via Twitter that the LA Rams were seeking to trade him, it didn’t take long for insiders to link the former Offensive Player of the Year to the Bills.
I was informed that the team will be seeking a trade immediately and will be working with me and my family to find the right place to continue competing for championships. I don’t agree with the decision and always believed it was going to begin and end in LA.
Still, if there’s… pic.twitter.com/XWmbGVscGy
— Cooper Kupp (@CooperKupp) February 4, 2025
“Buffalo will do whatever it takes to supplant Kansas City as the AFC’s best team, and adding Kupp could help them do that,” Bryan DeArdo of CBS Sports wrote. “Kupp could be a safety valve for Josh Allen, especially on possession downs. Kupp’s presence would surely benefit Buffalo’s young receiving corps [which] includes rookie Keon Coleman and 2022 third-round pick Khalil Shakir.
Most of what DeArdo says makes a whole lot of sense. It’s clear the Bills want a true No. 1 receiver alongside Coleman and Shakir, but are we even sure Kupp can still fill that role?
There have been countless times in the last two decades when a team has held onto a wide receiver for too long or signed them to a big contract in free agency which ended up being a huge waste of money. The Cowboys signed Dez Bryant to a five-year deal that was set to pay him over $70 million, and it was an instant flop. Bryant had just finished with three straight years of over 1,200 yards, but after the big extension, his best year saw him finish with 838 yards… and that was in Year 3 of the contract. His biggest issue was injuries.
Sound familiar?
For a more recent example, look at Odell Beckham Jr. He was one of the best wide receivers in NFL history early in his career, but he didn’t fulfill his second contract. Unlike Bryant, Beckham’s first year of his big contract was successful with the Cleveland Browns, catching 74 passes for 1,033 yards and four touchdowns. But then injuries set in, and he has played in 10 games just once since 2020.
We hope you’re noticing a theme here.
Now, maybe Kupp does magically stay healthy for a full couple of seasons and gets back to his 2021 ways when he caught 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns, but the chances aren’t really in the Bills’ favor. Now if we were talking about a $10 million contract for a year, yeah that would make a lot of sense, but here we are talking about almost $30 million and some draft capital that would need to be given up to get him.
Want to know who would make a lot more sense if the Bills really feel like spending $30 million on a wide receiver? Tee Higgins. Jeremy Fowler of ESPN believes that’s around what the current Bengals standout will commend in free agency.
“The over/under on Bengals receiver Tee Higgins’ market is $30 million per season, and the majority of team personnel that I spoke with believe he’ll hit or clear the over. The lowest estimate I heard was somewhere slightly above DeVonta Smith’s three-year, $75 million deal. The rest saw him breaking into the $30 million range, based on his status as a No. 1-caliber receiver and the number of teams desperate for pass-catching help,” Fowler wrote.
According to OverTheCap, the Bills are projected to have around $12 million in cap space to work with this offseason. More can always be opened up by moving contracts around, cutting players, and restructuring deals, but that limited cap space further highlights how crucial it is that they get their wide receiver move right.
One more wide receiver could be the difference in the Bills winning the Super Bowl next season or getting knocked out in the AFC Championship Game (again). But Kupp, or any other receiver, isn’t going to do a lot of good to get them to the ultimate goal if he’s not even on the field. At first glance, it makes sense why the thought of Kupp in Buffalo makes sense, but a quick dive into the numbers and his production over the last few years paints a clear picture. The Bills still need a true No. 1, but that guy shouldn’t be Kupp.
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