Year Three Is Really Year One In Minnesota
Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Things feel different these days for the Minnesota Vikings. For the first time in six years, Kirk Cousins is not around for the Purple faithful to argue about. There is an enthusiasm bounding about the fanbase, the kind only available to young teams springing with hope and potential. The future feels like an adventure, as opposed to a known path with a relatively certain ceiling. It’s Year 3 of the Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O’Connell regime, but in many ways, it feels like the first year of their real plan.
The young general manager and head coach inherited a difficult roster and financial situation despite coming into a very healthy and supportive organization. A mismanaged allocation of resources and an organization that didn’t want to tear it all down immediately made Years 1 and 2 a part of the overly-discussed “competitive rebuild.”
But here we are now. Changes have happened. Things are different. For the first time we will be judging KOC and Kwesi without the context of their predecessors actions. That judgment essentially funnels down to a major question for each leader.
KOC
Can he show an ability to CONSISTENTLY run an offense?
Now this question might offend some Viking fans. “What the hell are you talking about? He’s an offensive genius!”
No one is debating KOC’s offensive acumen as a play designer. On any individual down, the man can scheme up a play that makes his players look great and his opponents look silly. But the reality over his first two seasons in Minnesota is that he’s lacked consistent performances. Scoring droughts, and sometimes even simply “good drive” droughts, have plagued the team, even during his highly successful first year. An inability to put together four quarters of an offensive performance has been as much a staple of the Vikings offense as his unique play calls.
Despite very little talent and money spent on the defense, that side of the ball consistently bailed out the offense over the last two years. In 2022, it was Ed Donatell’s statistically terrible group forcing crucial turnover after crucial turnover as the offense failed to close games in 2022, and in 2023, Brian Flores’ historically high blitz rate kept teams in check. Time and again, Minnesota’s defense has had to be the failsafe for an offense guru who has the resources to perform better.
No one in Minnesota wants to talk about it, but the sooner that fans are honest about the offense’s below-average success despite the money spent, the sooner those expectations can dictate a better result.
For context, most people in Minnesota thought Mike Zimmer and his staff were an absolute disaster from an offensive standpoint. Yet in both of his last two seasons (years where he was destroyed by the fans and media for his offensive approach), Zimmer’s offenses averaged more points per game (26.9 and 25) than O’Connell’s have in his first two (24.9 and 20.2).
Sure, that second number is influenced by the loss of Cousins, but the team wasn’t above the 25 points-per-game mark before the quarterback got injured. The funny thing about Zimmer is that it was ultimately his chosen side of the ball failing consistently that cost Minnesota the ability to be competitive, and eventually, his job. It’s time for O’Connell to prove in Year 3 that he can avoid similar fate. It’s fair to expect this proclaimed offensive guru to actually put up the numbers of an offensive guru.
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah
Can HIS vision succeed?
Kwesi is an analytics and process oriented guy. Everyone knew the moment he got the job that he had a big-picture belief structure that he wanted to apply to the organization and roster.
In the NFL, unfortunately, it’s not always as simple as walking in the door and plastering your vision across the team. Being a new GM is a lot like being a college coach; you come in and want to do things your way, but you’re stuck with the last guy’s recruits. There is no argument here that Rick Spielman left this organization in a bad way. Bloated contracts for veterans late in their prime and a lack of draft success outside of Justin Jefferson made the Vikings overhaul a task. Especially when you consider that the organization never seemed interested in an immediate teardown.
Kwesi has had some head-scratchers early. His first draft was an abomination. The trade for TJ Hockenson was odd. No doubt Hockenson is an extremely skilled player, but handing over a draft pick in a draft full of high-end tight ends to trade for a guy who is immediately going to demand huge money raised questions around the league from experts.
Yet this season, Kwesi was finally able to drive his new car without someone in the passenger seat. He moved on from his polarizing star quarterback and the albatross contract that went with him. He had successfully moved on from every bloated veteran contract except Harrison Smith, whom he restructured. He went on a spending spree on defensive players and Aaron Jones as if to say “See, this is what you can do when you don’t have to pay a quarterback all that money.” He got two potential blue-chip draft picks in the first round.
Now, will it all work? Moving on from the quarterback means a question mark at sport’s most important position. Yet, if this team comes out and competes in a meaningful way this season, Kwesi is going to look very good. If his first and second-year guys like Jordan Addison and Dallas Turner show true superstar potential like many believe they can, he’s going to look great. If his new quarterback gets any run before the end of the season and he looks like he belongs, Kwesi might get a statue.
With the insane amount of pending cap room they have, Minnesota should be well-equipped going into the future if the roster starts to take shape this year. Even if they’re still a few pieces away from being a true competitor, Kwesi will have taken his early criticisms and turned them into non-stop praise. If the Vikings don’t look like they’re heading down the path to big-moment football and many of his offseason moves continue to fall flat, his seat will get hot in an awful hurry.
Year 3 of the Vikings new regime will be crucial for how this regime is allowed to operate in the future. This will be the year that sets the narrative and dictates the questions and expectations that the Vikings’ leaders will face going forward. They must answer these key questions as they move forward in trying to build a contender, with many eyes closely monitoring the situation in a crucial season.
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