Would Drafting A Round 1 Running Back Blow Up the Vikings’ Offseason Plans?
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With 22 roster spots needing to be filled in free agency, the Minnesota Vikings have a ton of questions to address this offseason. One of those is at running back. With Aaron Jones possibly hitting free agency alongside Cam Akers, that means Minnesota is potentially left with Ty Chandler as their sole back. Yes, that’s the same Chandler the Vikings trusted with a grand total of 12 carries in their final 12 games.
With Jones likely to be the top free agent running back on the market, the Vikings might have to look to the upcoming draft for answers. Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com took notice of this in his latest mock draft, where he projected Minnesota to take Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson with the No. 24 overall pick. That made Henderson the third tailback off the board, behind Ashton Jeanty and Omarion Hampton.
On paper, taking a running back makes a ton of sense. It’s a deep class, sure, but Henderson is one of the best RB prospects on offer. He rushed for over 1,000 yards for the National Championship-winning team, averaging 7.1 yards per carry and 10.5 yards per reception. The 33rd Team is high on him, stating that “Henderson offers vision, sharp-cut ability, and home run-hitting ability in a compact frame, and his passing down profile is that of an NFL contributor quickly upon his entry into the league.”
That sounds like a solid replacement for Jones and a good fit for Kevin O’Connell‘s system. But that’s not the issue here. The real question is if taking Henderson (or any other running back) at 24 would ruin the ideal blueprint for the Vikings offseason.
The simple answer to this is yes, although the reason why is a bit more complicated. It’s true that if J.J. McCarthy is starting under center, he’ll need to have a solid running game in place. However, is it crucial enough to take a running back at 24? I don’t think so.
To start, the Vikings only have three draft picks, and although they are expected to pick up another complimentary pick, it’s hard to imagine they will stick in the 24th overall spot. The most realistic scenario is for the Vikings to trade down into the second round so they can pick up a couple of extra selections. If the Vikings were to take a running back in the second round, after trading down, that would be much more reasonable. But to do so at 24 without picking up any additional draft capital would be a hard pass.
That’s not just for running back (though, it is especially for running back… we’ll get to that in a moment). The only way the Vikings should use their first-round pick on anyone is if they have identified a generational talent that has fallen in the draft, or if it’s an interior offensive lineman that they have fallen in love with. Having a solid running back is important for McCarthy, but do you know what’s even more important? Keeping their young quarterback upright when he drops back. Another Ohio State player, Donovan Jackson, gets selected by the Lions a few picks later in Jeremiah’s mock, and the Vikings taking him would be much preferable to splurging on a running back.
That’s because using a premium pick on a running back doesn’t jive with KOC’s system, which doesn’t treat running back as a premium position. Jones was still considered one of the better running backs in the league last season, but there were many games where the passing game would get on a roll, and it seemed like they had completely forgotten about the running game. Heck, they would forget about the running game even when Sam Darnold hit a wall!
Throughout 2024, the Vikings had 457 rushing attempts as a team, which was middle of the road in the league. Compare that to the Eagles, who led the NFL in rushing attempts at 621. There’s a talent gap between Saquon Barkley and Jones, for sure, but it’s hard to see KOC ever adopting a ground-and-pound offense.
This isn’t to say the Vikings don’t need a running back — they clearly do, and after Jones, there might be a quick drop-off as to who’s available on the open market. However, as we mentioned earlier, this is also a loaded draft class at running back. Former Kansas running back Devin Neal is projected to go somewhere between Rounds 3 and 6, and could step in and make a big impact in 2025, a la fourth-rounder Bucky Irving as a rookie for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
On some rankings, Damien Martinez is considered as low as the 15th-best running back in the class, and he might have one of the highest floors of anyone at the position. Sure, Henderson has flashed talent in college, but so has Martinez, who finished last year with 1,002 yards and 10 touchdowns for the Maimi Hurricanes last season.
There is no such thing as a sure bet in the NFL Draft. Take Trevor Lawrence, for example. When he got drafted, analysts talked about him as the league’s next great quarterback, and so far, the Jaguars are still hoping for that. If the Vikings are selecting a running back with their first-round pick, they need to believe that he’s going to be one of the best running backs in the NFL for the next ten years. Furthermore, they’d better be right.
If the Vikings don’t believe that 100%, they need to go in a different direction. Running back is a need this offseason, but there are more pressing needs to be addressed, and it’s much harder to find an impact, say, defensive tackle, in the middle rounds than it is to pluck a running back out of Day 2 or 3 obscurity. If the Vikings select a running back in the first round, it could lead them to forsake other crucial positions. And if they take the plunge and miss, it could set the franchise back seasons.
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