Will the Real Sam Darnold Please Stand Up?
Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images
In the offseason, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah elected to not resign Kirk Cousins, who ended with him signing a four-year, $180 million contract ($100 million guaranteed) with the Atlanta Falcons. The irony is that the Minnesota Vikings were in a similar position with Cousins when he first signed in 2018. In both circumstances, each team had a roster tailored-made for a quarterback to be determined, and Cousins was the safest, best available option.
The Vikings’ strategy didn’t work as intended, as they only mustered two playoff appearances (one win) during his six-year tenure. The story is still left to be told with the Falcons, who currently sit in first place in the NFC South with a 4-2 record, but Vikings fans should feel confident about how it will end.
But forget about Atlanta, and let’s look at Kwesi’s alternate plan: sign Sam Darnold.
Wait, what? was the general reaction at the time. We were talking about Sam Darnold, right? The same Sam Darnold that was a career 21-35 as a starter with a lukewarm 1.13 TD-to-INT ratio (63 TDs, 56 INTs) and a pedestrian 59.7% completion percentage entering his seventh season in 2024?
Yeah, that one.
His one-year, $10 million “prove it” deal was the tip of the iceberg in what has turned out to be a convincing offseason for Kwesi where all but one of his 13 offseason additions have contributed in one form or another this season (Sorry, Jonah Williams). The idea was signing Darnold before drafting J.J McCarthy tenth overall in the draft maintains the long-term vision of a franchise quarterback in perspective while having an insurance policy with Darnold.
Darnold’s checkered past is pretty well known at this point. A former third-overall pick with the New York Jets in 2018, he struggled to find any rhythm as he was surrounded by organizational dysfunction from both the Jets and the Carolina Panthers.
Kevin O’Connell echoed the importance of an organization’s responsibility for players like Darnold. “I just think as a whole, there’s not enough emphasis put on the organization’s role in the development of the position, meaning I believe that organizations fail young quarterbacks before young quarterbacks fail organizations,” O’Connell said. His rationale on team leaders taking ownership of player development speaks volumes for the type of culture O’Connell is evolving — one that encompasses support, engagement, and teamwork at all levels.
Context matters, which is why O’Connell is viewed within league circles as a “quarterback whisper” for how he interacts with people and relates his experience from playing the position. Cousins arguably had his best seasons under his tutelage, with O’Connell urging the veteran to play with a “quiet mind,” and now he’s extracting some of Darnold’s best qualities this season.
Darnold has been masterful with the deep ball and ranks seventh according to PFF in big-time throws. He’s connecting with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jalen Nailor on several large chunk plays, highlighted by the 97-yard touchdown catch-and-run by Jefferson, which saw the ball travel 50 yards in the air.
SAM DARNOLD TO JUSTIN JEFFERSON!!! 97-YARD TD!!!!!
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/K8MgguObbX
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) September 15, 2024
Against the New York Giants in Week 1, the long ball touch was on full display as he feathered the pass between two defenders and the sideline for a perfect placement, over-the-shoulder throw to Jefferson:
Darnold. Jefferson. 44 yards.
📺: #MINvsNYG on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/1bXf4WV1Bg— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2024
Despite some regression in performance against opportunistic defenses in his last couple of games, Darnold is fourth in touchdown passes (11), fifth in average yards per attempt (8.1), and seventh in quarterback rating (103.4). When kept clean in the pocket, his passer rating spikes to 113.0 with 9.5 yards per attempt and a 72% completion rate. The offensive line has done a good job for the most part in giving Darnold time to throw as, according to NextGen Stats, he ranks second in average time-to-throw (3.14), which enables Darnold to go big game hunting downfield more often.
His blistering start is MVP-caliber and his physical tools have never been in question, but there are warranted reservations with his performance from his lsat six quarters that give pause. During those 90 minutes, he completed 53.5% of his passes for 318 yards with zero touchdowns and four turnovers (two interceptions, two fumbles).
When pressured this season, Darnold has a 77.0 passer rating with 4.5 yards per attempt and 42% completion percentage. His pressure-to-sack rate (23.3) is 34th amongst 55 qualifying quarterbacks, indicating there is more work to be done using his mobility, finding escape outlets or time and space to intentionally throw incompletions to avoid sacks.
One reason for the pressure is KOC has been dialing up deep dropbacks and long developing plays. Those generate big yardage plays, but at the expense of defensive pressure sometimes causing disruption and hesitation for Darnold when going through his read progressions.
Against the New York Jets, Darnold generally had a clean pocket to throw, but was pressured 14 times throughout the game, which will give any quarterback happy feet and feeling the need to force-feed his star receiver. Jefferson had half of Darnold’s 28 attempts thrown his way.
That left other opportunities on the table. We can see that when tight end Johnny Mundt ran up the seam into a post-corner route where he was wide open underneath Jefferson’s route, but Darnold made the wrong choice.
The lesson for Darnold from the Jets game is that you have tight ends you can target when they're open- especially when the Jets have two excellent corners covering your top receivers. Here is Johnny Mundt wide open but Darnold targets Jets against DJ Reed. pic.twitter.com/ZTBpVFmbaM
— Warren Ludford (@wludford) October 7, 2024
During his NFL career, Darnold has been knocked for his decision-making, field vision, and lack of touch on intermediate throws. All these tendencies have been showing up more against the better defenses in the league, which is understandable given the level of competition. These are also areas KOC most likely saw when scouting him, and he has to have been working with Darnold to improve upon them during the bye.
This Sunday, Darnold faces a Detroit Lions defense that lost front-runner Defensive Player of the Year candidate, Aiden Hutchinson, to a season-ending leg injury. His league-leading pressures (45) and sacks (7.5) are gone now. Worse, the Lions’ defense has been vulnerable against the pass, ranking 27th in passing yards per game (246.2). This gives Darnold the opportunity to change the narrative with a career-defining performance against a Super Bowl contender, or reinforce it by exposing the limitations that have plagued his career.
Everyone will be watching. Will the real Sam Darnold please stand up?
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