What History Tells Us About J.J. McCarthy’s Injury
Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
J.J. McCarthy’s NFL career just hit its first bump in the road. Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell announced on Tuesday that McCarthy will undergo knee surgery to repair a torn meniscus. The No. 10 overall pick in 2024 reported knee soreness following an impressive preseason debut (11-for-17, 206 total yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT vs. the Las Vegas Raiders.)
.@jjmccarthy09's throw.
Trishton's catch.@JJettas2's reaction.
Everything about this video is gold.
Absolute gold.
📺: @FOX9 | @NFLNetwork pic.twitter.com/qVMMx4e5BY
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) August 10, 2024
The good news for the rookie is that this isn’t just the first time he has injured his knee, but the first serious injury of any kind throughout his career. McCarthy was unlikely to be the Vikings’ Week 1 starter, so the injury shouldn’t affect his immediate schedule. Though, depending on how long he’s out, it could affect next season and beyond.
McCarthy is far from the first quarterback to be injured prior to or during his rookie season. So what does history tell us about quarterbacks that have hit the same bump, or similar?
Joe Burrow was 10 games into his rookie season before tearing his ACL, PCL, MCL, and meniscus in Week 11 on a high-low hit in the pocket. Burrow returned to start the next season and looked even better than before the injury. Burrow was on pace to put up 4,570 yards with a 22-to-9 TD-to-INT ratio as a rookie. He blew those numbers away in his sophomore season, with 4,611 yards, 34 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions
That performance earned him the Comeback Player of the Year Award. He also ended the Bengals’ playoff win drought, leading them to a Super Bowl loss against the Rams. He did this even despite re-injuring the same knee twice in the playoffs. Before then, Burrow started 16 games, sitting out only for a meaningless Week 18 matchup. Since then, he has fully bounced back to become a top-five quarterback in the NFL.
This bounceback gives Vikings fans hope and reason to believe McCarthy can make a full recovery and still reach his full potential. Now, Burrow was fully polished as a prospect, ready to go on Day 1. McCarthy is seen as more of a project, but it gives hope his (much more minor) injury won’t slow him down.
Deshaun Watson is another quarterback who had his rookie year cut short due to a knee injury. Watson tore his ACL during practice in Week 8 of his rookie season on a non-contact injury. Like Burrow, Watson was lighting it up, with 1,699 yards and a 19-to-8 TD-to-INT over six starts. Also like Burrow, Watson was back in Week 1 the next season and had his best year to date. He posted 4,146 passing yards (4,716 total), 26 TDs and 9 INTs. He led the Houston Texans to a Wild Card berth. Watson’s had a lot of problems since, but none have to do with re-injuring his knee.
These examples should encourage some optimism for the Vikings and McCarthy. Burrow’s trajectory wasn’t thrown off, and Watson regained his passing form and his mobility. For them, both were just a bump in the road.
Still, knee injuries are terrifying, as you can glean from the sad case of Robert Griffin III. Griffin was on a superstar pace before he tore his ACL, LCL, and meniscus in the Wild Card Round of his Rookie of the Year-winning season. RGIII never re-injured his knee, but his play was never the same. What was once a star ready to take over the league became an unreliable shell of his former self.
After the injury, he played scared, and the coaching staff in Washington played scared. They tried to turn him into a pocket passer, effectively eliminating his biggest strength. He was soon replaced by Kirk Cousins, and he has since bounced around the league and retired.
McCarthy still is early in his development, so this injury shouldn’t kill his confidence as it seemed to with Griffin. And while Kevin O’Connell wasn’t yet in Washington for the injury, he later joined the coaching staff meaning he saw first-hand how the injury and how it was dealt with affected the organization. This experience hopefully taught O’Connell how not to deal with a serious injury to a young quarterback.
The Vikings also have much more talent on the offense, and particularly, in pass protection. There won’t be as much pressure on McCarthy to carry an offensive load like RGIII had to do.
What happens when you’re not an uber-talented, athletic freak like Burrow, Watson, and RGIII, though? You could just be Matt Corral, a third-rounder from the 2022 Draft. Corral was expected to get a shot as the QB of the Future for the Carolina Panthers, until a Lisfranc (a foot, not knee) injury took away his rookie season. Since then, the Panthers sold their soul for Bryce Young, and Corral is still waiting for his first NFL snap.
Corral is relevant to McCarthy because both injured themselves in the offseason, before any regular season action, and that cost Corral his shot at a starting gig. Now, the injury is different, and the situations are different. Matt Rhule, the head coach who drafted Corral, got fired. With his coach gone the new Panthers regime didn’t commit to Corral, nor did they invest in him as much as the Vikings have with McCarthy.
As seen with Burrow, Watson, and many before them, there is still plenty of hope and reason to believe this injury will not be the one to throw off McCarthy’s success in the NFL. What it will come down to is the support system around him. The organization, KOC, and the players will need to make for the softest and safest possible landing for their QB of the future.
This means that the organization can’t rush him back just because they’ve invested so many assets into him. If it turns out McCarthy needs season-ending surgery it’s important they just bite the bullet and get it over with. His long-term health and success are more important than his having a chance to play this season.
O’Connell will need to do his part to acclimate his franchise QB to the league, regardless of when McCarthy returns. The coach will need to walk a tightrope, editing the playbook to limit dangerous plays while allowing McCarthy to play his game. The skill players need to make plays for his confidence, and the blockers need to keep him healthy. Avoiding the mistakes the Washington coaching staff made with RGIII will significantly boost McCarthy’s odds of returning with the same swagger he had before.
What history has taught us is that although the odds of failure are increased, it’s possible to take an injury like this on the chin and stay on track. McCarthy is just 21 years old and won’t turn 22 until near season’s end. He’ll have plenty of time to make a full recovery and continue his development. McCarthy’s injury shouldn’t deter any optimism on his future. It’s a minor setback, but he is still in full control. His success is still ultimately up to him.
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