Minnesota Shouldn’t Be Scared Of Less Targets For Jefferson
John Jones-Imagn Images
Something smells a little different here in Minnesota. No, it’s not pumpkin spice. It’s not the crisp autumn air slowly creeping in, either. Nor is it even the stench of whatever happened down in Atlanta in Week 1 wafting up north (sorry, not sorry Kirk). No. It’s the winds of change here in the Land of 10,000 Missed Opportunities. It feels as if we’ve witnessed a new, more refined brand of football. I believe the wise ones call it… Balance.
See, this is a new concept for the Minnesota Vikings. Before there was Justin Jefferson, it was Adrian Peterson, and prior to that, it was Randy Moss. When the Vikings get superstars, they sure like to ram them down everyone’s throats. Like most things, too much of anything is usually a bad thing.
Leading up to the 2002 NFL season, newly-appointed head coach Mike Tice — who would later get on that grindset with a lucrative side hustle as a ticket salesman on the secondary market — decided that in order for the Vikings to be competitive, they’d need 40% of their offensive plays to go to Randy Moss. He called it “The Randy Ratio.”
What followed was a ratio closer to 30% and, to no one’s surprise, a disaster. The Vikings would go on to limp to a 6-10 record. The Randy Ratio carried on to the next season, but yet again, the Vikings failed to make the playoffs. However, it did result in some hefty yardage for Moss, as he amassed 2,979 yards over those two “magical” seasons.
Ultimately, dumb ideas like the The Randy Ratio got Tice fired. Looking a bit further down the road, you can’t really blame the organization for leaning heavily on Adrian Peterson, since he was consistently paired with elite QBs such as Christian Ponder, Tarvaris Jackson, and Donovan McNabb. But still, filling up on an all-AD diet never created lots of success.
As easy as it is to believe in Kevin O’Connell — and believe me, it’s easy — this trend of force-feeding superstars has largely continued since he took the reins in 2021. Not taking into account the 2023 season that saw both Kirk Cousins AND Justin Jefferson miss significant portions of the season, over 29% of Kirk’s 1,204 passing attempts were thrust Jefferson’s way.
The next closest receiver during that time frame was Adam Thielen, and the percentage of throws directed at the Minnesota native was nearly half that of Jefferson’s. You couple all that with a largely non-existent run game, and it simply wasn’t a sustainable brand of football.
However, Week 1 of 2024, we saw something new — we saw Sam Darnold spreading the ball around. Eight different players had receptions, seven of whom had multiple receptions. We also saw more runs than passing attempts. What is going on around here?
The running backs and fullback had more combined targets than Jefferson. It’s hard to fathom! All of this balance, coupled with a defensive score, catapulted the Vikings to a dominant 28-6 win over the Giants. It was that “compete game” feeling that we have’t really felt during the KOC era.
Now, before we get ahead of ourselves, yes, this is only one week of football. And yes, Week 2 brings the San Francisco 49ers into town to truly put this new “formula” to the test. But, I do believe there’s some maturity happening with this ball-club, and this Sunday is a chance to prove it to the rest of the football world.
The 49ers have a host of stars that they can rely on, but week to week, game to game, there’s never just “one guy” who has to go off in order for them to win a substantial amount of football games. Sometimes it’s Deebo Samuel, sometimes it’s George Kittle, sometimes it’s Christian McCaffrey. Hell, last week it was McCaffrey’s backup, Jordan Mason. It’s all about finding the right recipe for success during THAT particular week against THAT particular opponent.
When O’Connell first came to Minnesota, most thought he would be a Sean McVay clone. The more likely truth is he falls on the other half of the “Shanahan tree” and wants to build things more like Mike’s son Kyle. This week will be an excellent opportunity to watch the Vikings battle the team that they may just be modeling their future after.
Time will tell how this breath of fresh, balanced air tastes as the season shakes out. But for now, it seems the less space Jefferson occupies from a usage standpoint, the better the Vikings may end up being for it. This organization has a rich history of superstars who have, or will, wind up in the conversations of the greatest of all time at their position. What it doesn’t have is an all time great who also has a Super Bowl ring.
So remember, on Sunday and beyond, that despite your desire for big stats and Hall Of Fame conversations, saying goodbye to the Jefferson Ratio is likely Minneosta’s best chance to build a contender.
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