Vikings Need to Worry Less About Wins in 2024
Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Zygi Wilf and the Wilf family purchased the Minnesota Vikings in 2005 and this ownership group started with their “triangle of authority” when they first purchased the franchise, to Rick Speilman being sole GM, to current GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah with this underlying mandate: stay competitive each season.
Adofo-Mensah reiterated this organizational philosophy by summing it up at his 2023 end-of-year press conference. “You want to get to a point…where you can overcome the adversity we have. We want to get to a place where there’s no rebuild, right? It’s just competitive in a window, and I think we’re close to that.” Adofo-Mensah’s “competitive rebuild” approach, to use his verbiage, was meant to appease ownership through some rough times.
But with J.J. McCarthy in the fold and Justin Jefferson on-board for the long haul, the concept of the “competitive rebuild” needs to evolve, and be directed toward player development in 2024 while coaches build more continuity within both KOC’s and Flores’ dynamic schemes.
The “competitive rebuild” began in 2022, and had the distinction of kicking off with a disastrous draft – one that netted a single subpar starter in G Ed Ingram with his 10 picks. The Vikings followed that up by winning 13 games that turned to ashes after a first-round exit against the New York Giants. Then the roller coaster headed up in a productive 2023 Draft highlighted by Jordan Addison in the first round, then down again after injuries to Cousins and Jefferson derailed the season.
That low point was compounded Adofo-Mensah not being aggressive in trading Danielle Hunter or Jordan Hicks. If not for the desire to remain competitive even after a 1-4 start, Minnesota could have secured valuable draft capital. Such is the life of chasing wins, even when there are few to be found.
Credit to the Wilfs, they’ve kept Minnesota competitive throughout their tenure. Since 2005, the Vikings are 161-144-2, which ranks 12th in the NFL according to Statmuse.com. This includes highlights by two NFC Championship Games (both losses) in 2009 and 2017. They were aggressive in signing Kirk Cousins to two fully guaranteed contracts starting in 2018 to secure the missing piece to a championship-ready roster.
We know what chasing those wins led to: one playoff win during the Cousin’s six-year reign with the Vikings. There was no rebuilding to be found, and that’s been the thing that has put a hard ceiling on this organization’s success.
In the Wilf Era, the Vikings have only drafted in the top five picks once (Matt Kalil) and the top 10 just four times (Adrian Peterson, Kalil, Anthony Barr, McCarthy). Expand that figure to the top 20, and the cupboard is still very bare at 11 such players. A franchise focused on staying competitive each season but earning little postseason success undeniably hindered building a true championship contender.
Again, credit the Vikings for finding gold late in the first round. With great finds like Percy Harvin (22 overall in 2009), Harrison Smith (29 overall in 2012), Xavier Rhodes (25 overall in 2013), Jefferson (22 overall in 2020), and Christian Darrisaw (23 overall in 2021), they’ve built strong positional groups. Still, they were always out of the running for top-flight franchise quarterback.
In the Vikings 63-year existence, they have drafted a QB in the first round only 5 times (Tommy Kramer, Daunte Culpepper, Christian Ponder, Teddy Bridgewater, and McCarthy). It’s not surprising that the position has consistently been the team’s Achilles Heel.
Of the past 19 Super Bowl winners, just six had starting quarterbacks drafted outside of the top 15: Tom Brady (4x), Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Nick Foles. That group includes just two (Flacco and Foles) whp won’t be enshrined in Canton someday. Selecting McCarthy with the 10th overall pick opened the door to greater heights, and their hopes are pinned on developing him into the franchise chess piece. The Vikings have a former quarterback and offensive mastermind in Kevin O’Connell as head coach and added Josh McCown as quarterbacks coach – who is viewed as a strong mentor in his own right to help McCarthy in his development.
Therefore, the 2024 season should be about prioritizing player development to advance towards an elite, sustainable window to contend for Super Bowls – Not just 10-win seasons, or NFC North titles, or even the occasional Minneapolis Miracle.
Ideally, that means McCarthy sits the whole 2024 season, taking a page from the Packers’ development approach with Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love. Win or lose, Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell must let Darnold provide a veteran presence playing this season. The end game is making sure McCarthy is fully prepared and ready before taking the field as the long-term starter. The front office and coaches are talking the right talk now, but is that going to last if the team starts 1-4 again? Or 0-6? We’ll see.
Sure, if McCarthy grabs the reins sometime this season, it makes sense to give KOC and the staff the benefit of the doubt with that decision. Minnesota is trusting O’Connell with McCarthy’s progress for a reason. But that decision must only be informed by McCarthy’s readiness. The NFC North is only getting tougher and each team within the division has adopting a long-term approach towards player development and building quarterback-centric teams.
The Vikings need to be disciplined in staying on that path to build another Super Bowl-contending team, but will they (and ownership) have the patience to execute their plan? Their future hinges on that question.
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