Three Improvements the Vikings Must Shore Up Before the Playoffs
Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images
The 2024 Minnesota Vikings season has been jam-packed with storylines galore. From Sam Darnold’s renaissance season that should garner MVP votes, to career seasons from many on the defense like Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel, to Justin Jefferson being Justin Jefferson, continuing his dominance, and smashing records with each passing week. It’s been quite the season, and fans must continue to soak it all in.
This season is giving both players and fans all the feels, and conquering this array of feelings is how winners are manifested. In the face of adversity or uncertainty, winning teams see a semblance of clarity. It’s never an easy path, but the journey is fulfilling, as it was on Sunday when the Vikings claimed their first victory at Lumen Field since 2006. Every team has their moments for good or for bad, and the Vikings are living in their moment.
As such, recognizing opportunities to improve is part of the voyage, and facing the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions — who combine for a 24-6 record — is the ultimate litmus test. It’s a series of trials and tribulations the Vikings want to be challenged with, as this will be the standard level of competition in their upcoming sudden-death battle royale in the NFC playoffs.
For all the success the Vikings are having this season, there are opportunities for the team to improve. Sometimes recognizing your biggest faults is part of becoming a winner, so let’s look at where the Vikings will be tested.
Setback By Sacks
Darnold was sacked three times on Sunday against the Seahawks and has taken three-plus sacks in four out of the last five games. It’s an issue that has challenged the team all season, as the Vikings are 24th in sacks allowed (46). Conversely, the Packers are second (19) and the Lions are ninth (29).
Some of these sack issues are by design, as Darnold holds onto the ball longer to allow plays to develop downfield in Kevin O’Connell‘s offense. His 3.09 average time to throw is the third-highest in the NFL among regular quarterbacks, and while Darnold has mobility in the pocket, it’s not been enough to avoid those 46 sacks.
But it’s a double-edged sword, and Darnold has to keep honing that balance between holding onto the ball and not taking negative plays. His 31 big-time throws are third in the NFL, behind only Josh Allen (34) and Joe Burrow (32). That’s great. But continuing to use his mobility and get rid of the ball can help cut down on sacks and the devastating impact of those plays.
Protect the Middle
Of course, the sacks aren’t entirely on the quarterback. Minnesota’s biggest opportunity comes from improved play from their interior offensive line. The line has seen a revolving door take place at right guard as former starter Ed Ingram was replaced by Dalton Risner one game after he returned from injured reserve.
How bad was it? Ingram played 580 snaps before being benched, and amongst qualifying guards, he ranked 54th out of 57 with a 54.0 PFF offensive grade. His run-blocking (58.1) and pass-blocking (49.1) grades ranked 41st and 55th, respectively.
Comparatively, Risner has played 400 snaps and ranks 32nd in offensive grade (63.9), 55th in run-blocking (54.9), and 12th in pass-blocking (74.2) out of 65 qualifying guards.
The advanced analytics suggest the Vikings made the right move, even if it comes at the expense of Risner’s inferior run blocking. The downgrade is a marginal difference, however. Risner’s overall grade is in line with average guards in the league, while his pass-blocking has been far superior. It was a move that simply needed to be made for a pass-centric offense.
However, the interior offensive line is not out of the woods. Blake Brandel has had an up-and-down season, as he has given up the 11th most pressures (30) amongst guards, even though his pass-blocking grade (65.6) is league-average. Garrett Bradbury has been an average center, according to his 63.2 offensive line grade, but has struggled mightily with pass protection, which is the quickest path to the quarterback. Bradbury is dead-last amongst centers in pass-blocking efficiency (96.6%).
Overall, the offensive line is 26th in pass-blocking efficiency (83.3%) and a mediocre run-blocking unit, but throughout the season, O’Connell has done a masterful job with max protection packages. Along with Darnold’s pocket awareness and mobility, the Vikings have made the interior offensive line work well enough to have the run play off the pass.
But the Packers, Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, LA Rams, and Washington Commanders have active interior defensive lines, and the Vikings’ O-line must hold up against some of the best defenders in the NFL. But luckily, Darnold’s 94.5 passer rating when pressured is the highest in the NFL. We’ll see if QB and line can work in tandem to improve, or if these flaws will sink them in the playoffs.
You Shall Not Pass?
The Vikings’ defense has been the backbone of this team all season, but their bend-don’t-break style has given up a lot of yards and explosive plays. Those flaws have been papered up by elite defensive efficiency on third down and in the red zone, as well as their ability to generate turnovers.
Giving up passing yards has been the biggest Achilles’ Heel, as they are 30th in yards allowed per game (248.7). It’s partially been a byproduct of getting out to early leads, as they lead the league in first-quarter points scored (7.3 per game). The defense creating 30 takeaways has also often given the offense shorter fields to score points, which has also helped Minnesota create big early leads.
The most telling stat is opposing offenses throw the ball a league-high 38.8 times per game against Flores’ defensive scheme, which plays in zone coverage on 76.8% of plays, the fourth-most in the NFL. The zone coverage is a necessity because of a combination of an aging cornerback room that isn’t as fast or quick along as they used to be, along with the zone-blitz schemes Flores likes to deploy. The benefits are well-documented, but that leaves the defense susceptible to big plays, with a lot of moving defenders needing to cover large zone pockets on the field.
The Vikings will see Ivan Pace Jr. and Harrison Smith likely to return this week, and when fully healthy, the team leads the league in explosive play rate allowed (7.7%) compared to their 21st-place rank for the season. Amongst the contending NFC playoff teams, the Rams and Commanders are the only two teams outside of the top 15 in explosive play percentage with the Packers, Lions, and Buccaneers all in the top five.
With how the NFC playoff picture is shaping up, the Vikings will face teams with strong interior defensive lines and potent offenses that can produce explosive plays. How Darnold, the interior offensive line, and the secondary can handle two top teams in Weeks 17 and 18 will be a telling sign of how long their playoff run will go. If both O’Connell and Flores can improve upon these areas through their creative protections and schemes, the hope of a dream season could become reality.
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