The Vikings Can Set A Championship Tone With One of Two Premier Free Agent Paths
Credit: Anders Leiva via Imagn Images
The 2025 NFL league year starts on March 12, at which point teams must be under the $272.5 million salary cap to be compliant. Luckily, the Vikings aren’t even close to being one of the eight teams currently over the cap, as they boast the seventh-most cap space in the NFL, according to Over the Cap. Extensions, signing bonus conversions, and void years could free up even more cap space.
One team’s cap casualty is another team’s opportunity, and the Vikings will get a shot at many players added to the free agent pool. And with the amount of space they possess, as well as their 14-3 record and fantastic reputation among the NFLPA, they should have few problems attracting a premier free agent.
Now, spending roughly $20 million for a top player is a luxury Minnesota can afford, but that also doesn’t mean to throw money around without thinking. With several roster spots to fill and limited draft picks in 2025, the Vikings will need to be strategic with their resources as they hope to sustainably build into perennial contenders.
Arguably, the Vikings’ two biggest needs involve their interior offensive line and their secondary. The offensive line has been a major talking point for years, while the secondary may have to replace five players, depending on how things play out with Byron Murphy and Cam Bynum’s free agency and Harrison Smith‘s potential retirement.
Barring what teams do with their franchise tags, there are currently two free agent candidates that stand above the rest in terms of addressing the Vikings’ biggest needs. It’s very possible that they can only sign one such premier player, so who should they choose?
Trey Smith, Right Guard, Kansas City Chiefs
The two-time defending Super Bowl champions are on the precipice of battling for an unprecedented third-straight ring, and Trey Smith is a big part of that success.
The Chiefs may technically have $11.5 million in cap space for 2025, but they a minus-$2.07 million in effective cap space (meaning, the cap space a team will have after signing at least 51 players and its projected rookie class to its roster), according to Over The Cap. The Chiefs will have a difficult time creating enough cap space to franchise tag Smith, given the project cost for an offensive lineman is $25.2 million, and the transition tag is $22.7 million.
Therefore, the probability of him entering free agency without either tag is likely. Smith, listed No. 2 on PFFs free agency rankings, is estimated to command about $20.5 million avg/year. Turning 26-years-old by the start of the 2025 season, he is well in his prime and would solve a right guard position that saw a revolving door take place between Ed Ingram and Dalton Risner last season.
His 78.8 PFF Overall Grade was 11th amongst guards, including eighth in Run Blocking (80.8) and 23 in Pass Blocking (70.6). The interior offensive line was far too inconsistent on both fronts, and Smith would unquestionably be a dramatic upgrade. Still, at $20.5 million AAV, there are other guard options where arguably the cap would be better utilized.
The Detroit Lions’ Kevin Zeitler (86.8 Overall Grade), the Chicago Bears’ Teven Jenkins (75.4), and the Philadelphia Eagles’ Mekhi Becton (75.2) offer comparable output at a fraction of the cost, as their projected value ranges from $6.25 million to $13.33 million.
Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers’ James Daniels (92.9) and the Indianapolis Colts’ Will Fries (86.9) both are coming off season-ending injuries and are still relatively young at 27-years-old. This duo’s AAV is projected at $5.5 million and $14.3 million, respectively, and they each will greatly help the offensive line, if they are healthy.
Smith is considered the crown jewel of the guard marketplace given his production, age, and resume. But as much as he would be a dramatic upgrade, there are other viable options at cheaper salaries on a multi-year contract, and even short-term, plug-and-play veteran options that would shore up the Vikings’ line on a budget.
Ultimately, the goal is to find long-term answers to a unit that has been a weak spot for much of the last decade, but even with a short-term, cheaper veteran addition like Zeitler, Jenkins, Daniels, or Fries would lend Minnesota a credible right guard without paying a premium for Smith.
Jevon Holland, Safety, Miami Dolphins
Safety is not a premium position, but Jevon Holland is a premium player who fits precisely with what the Vikings love to do on defense. Holland is extremely versatile, taking snaps at safety (434), in the box (235), at slot cornerback (142), and on the defensive line (38) in 2024.
The Vikings have several holes in the secondary with the assumption that Josh Metellus, Mekhi Blackmon (who will be returning from a torn ACL), and Theo Jackson will be the secondary holdovers from the 2024 roster. UDFA cornerback Dwight McGlothern is also a name who could be a viable option for playing time, as he showed flashes in limited action.
Holland’s versatility checks several boxes as a defensive back and he’s an imposing presence, listed at 6-foot-1, 210 pounds. He also has familiarity playing under Flores in Miami when he was the head coach. In 2021, his only year with Flores, Holland sported an 84.7 Overall Grade from PFF as a rookie.
2024 was a down year, with a 63.0 Overall Grade, but the Dolphins were a dumpster fire, and back in 2023, he had an impressive 90.4 Overall Grade, which ranked third among safeties and included an 89.9 Coverage Grade. There might be reservations given his down year, but he’d be reuiniting with a talented coach, and the culture within TCO tends to get the most out of players.
His projected salary is $19.5 million AAV, which is probably worth it for the No. 3 player by PFF’s rankings, especially since he’s not quite yet 25 years old. It might be blasphemy, but Holland’s play is reminiscent of Harrison Smith in his prime — a versatile threat who defensive coordinators need to always account for. Paired with Metellus’ own brand of versatility, and Flores would have two Swiss Army Knife-like toys with which to create maximize confusion and havoc for opposing offenses.
Realistically, the Vikings will need to find at least two or three potential starting defensive backs with a combination of free agency and the draft. Murphy is a candidate to re-sign, but he’s projected to command $17.3 million on the open market, so if the Vikings elected to target Holland, they’d have to find more cost-effective options.
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has a challenging offseason ahead of him as he will need to be crisp and strategic with his resources. One of those is the cap space of signing one — and likely just one — top free agent, and who he chooses will set the tone for how he navigates the remainder of the offseason. Both Smith or Holland could be the home run signing Vikings fans are hoping for, but even if Minnesota can land one of them, there will be much, much more to the offseason puzzle than that choice.
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