Past And Present Tells Vikings Not To Sell The House For A QB
Syndication: USA TODAY
On March 15th, the Vikings acquired the 23rd overall pick and a seventh rounder from the Texans in exchange for a 2nd round pick, a 6th round pick, and a 2025 second round pick. The announcement of that trade with Huston sent the “Will the Vikings trade up to draft a QB?” rumors into overdrive.
Vikings ⬆️ for JJ McCarthy
Six trades we’d like to see on night one of the NFL Drafthttps://t.co/jRD5oDO3El
— PFF (@PFF) March 28, 2024
After the departure of Kirk Cousins, Minnesota went out and acquired Sam Darnold via free agency. Even with the rumors of trading up persisting, Kevin O’Connell remains confident in his newest quarterback.
"Sam Darnold was a guy that jumped out to me personally and I've evaluated him at different points of his QB journey… I can't wait to get working with him and I think his best football is ahead of him" 👀
– #Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell
pic.twitter.com/bhpFs1ZUFY— The Purple Persuasion (@TPPSkol) March 26, 2024
It’s understandable why some Vikings fans would want to do this. Sam Darnold has not been the QB that football fans thought he would be since he was drafted third overall in 2018. In addition, a team selecting a QB in the first round marks the beginning of a new era and provides a sign of optimism for the future. Fans are justified in wanting Kwesi Adofo-Mensah to make a huge move to find the man that can maximize the potential of the Vikes’ elite receiver corps.
However, even with the elite potential of some of the QBs at the top, there is no reason to do so.
Yes, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye all offer elite potential, but the Vikings are highly unlikely to take any of them. Not only are they all expected to be the first three quarterbacks taken in this year’s draft, but they’re also expected to be the first players taken in this year’s draft. The Bears, Commanders, and Patriots, who all need quarterbacks, hold picks 1-3 this year. Should the Vikings try to trade up into the top three, they will have to negotiate with a team with all the leverage, and they will need to pay a king’s ransom.
When teams have done that of late, it has not been worth it. Last year’s draft can be seen as a prime example.
I don’t think people understand just how historical it would be if the Panthers give the Bears the #1 overall pick.
It would be literally unheard of.
Bears trade:
#1 Overall (Bryce Young)Panthers trade:
#1 Overall
#9 Overall (Darnell Wright)
DJ Moore
2nd rounder
2nd rounder— Sadeek 🪐 (@SadeekNextWave) October 8, 2023
It has barely been over one year since the trade took place. By holding the Panthers’ first overall pick this year, the trade is already a net victory for Chicago, and the Panthers will now have to wait until round two to build around Bryce Young.
It hardly stops there. Three years ago, the 49ers sold the house and traded up nine spots to select Trey Lance, who is the current Dallas Cowboys’ third string QB. The Bears have fallen victim to this twice in recent memory – trading up for Justin Fields in 2021 and Mitch Trubisky in 2017, which is bleak for a team that once again needs a signal caller. Other QBs that teams have traded up for recently include the aforementioned Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, and Carson Wentz.
There are successful examples such as Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson. However, the trades up over the years have proven to be far too risky, and the risks have not paid off the majority of the time.
Even with the past history, there are a certain pocket of Vikings fans who remain hopeful that Adofo-Mensah makes a move for one name in particular.
Posting a JJ McCarthy highlight everyday until he gets drafted by the Vikings
Day Eight: pic.twitter.com/KJ096Dafbs
— ≋𝘿≋ (@VikingsDynasty) March 28, 2024
The reigning national champion is a likely top ten pick. Even with the championship accolades, history is not on McCarthy’s side. More often than not, QBs who win it all in college don’t succeed in the NFL. Since 1998, the only elite exceptions to this are Joe Burrow and Cam Newton, and they both had otherworldly seasons in the years they won it all. Six national title winning QBs since ‘98 (Tee Martin, Josh Heupel, Matt Mauck, Chris Leak, Cardale Jones, and Jake Coker) did not throw a single NFL touchdown. That number could grow to seven, depending on how Stetson Bennett’s career plays out.
Even with the history of trades and national champions in mind, McCarthy has been the subject of a rumored bidding war. The two teams directly after the Vikings in the draft (Las Vegas and Denver) both need a franchise quarterback. They will face the Chargers, who are led by JJ McCarthy’s college coach, Jim Harbaugh, twice a year. One longtime national analyst even sees the Broncos as a team that could make that move.
"Sean Payton's the one I'd keep an eye on… I've felt all along Sean Payton wants JJ McCarthy and he's not going to fall to them at 13, you're going to have to go get him. What are you going to pay to go get him?"
-DP thinks Sean Payton will make a move for a QB at the Draft pic.twitter.com/CsdoEYv4pa
— Dan Patrick Show (@dpshow) March 26, 2024
Minnesota currently holds the 11th and 23rd picks in the 2024 NFL Draft. The Vikes could very well watch the other top QBs land elsewhere and stand pat with their picks. In such a case, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah could look to other potential options in the first round, or even high in the second round, such as Michael Penix or Bo Nix. They could even make the gutsy call to address other needs and try their luck with Sam Darnold.
Only one thing is certain – whoever is under center will be elated at the opportunity to lead an offense with Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, and Jordan Addison as pass catchers.
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