Minnesota Is Developing A Blend of Winning Formulas
Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images
Against a scrappy Arizona Cardinals team on Sunday, the Minnesota Vikings prevailed in another nail-biter. They took their first lead with 1:13 left in the fourth quarter and then intercepted Kylar Murray on the ensuing possession to seal the 23-22 victory. A fitting end for a team that continues to play with a moxie that lets them overcome adversity, and they improved their record to 7-1 in one-score games in 2024.
While they have some parallels to the 2017 and 2022 Vikings’ teams, the 2024 version shows they can win in multiple ways, even as fans clamor for more decisive victories. Vikings fans may jokingly claim to battle heart attacks most weeks, but that’s simply life in the NFL, where on “Any Given Sunday,” margins are razor-thin and parity abundant.
Of the 388 NFL games this year, 307 have been decided by 8 points or less. So, almost 80 percent of games come down to one score. Solid product.
— Alec Lewis (@alec_lewis) December 2, 2024
When asked about the legitimacy of gaining style-point victories, Jordan Addison responded, “To me, I got that ‘find a way to win mentality.’ At the end of the day, it is still the NFL…every game is going to be a game because it’s the NFL.”
Despite these edge-of-your-seat games, the Vikings are below the league average for one-score games at 67%, and have gotten wins in a variety of ways (including 3-1 in multi-score games). The team’s personnel and sensible game plans allow them to create in-game adjustments that creates a winning formula most weeks.
Brian O’Neill reiterated this sentiment, “I think it matters that we are finding different ways to win football games. There hasn’t been one exact formula… there has been a lot of different ways to win football games and [finding them is] the sign of maturity of this team… a win, is a win in the NFL.”
The first five weeks saw the Vikings get decisive wins (versus the New York Giants and Houston Texans) while racking up three more (San Francisco 49ers, Green Bay Packers, and New York Jets) where they jumped out to big leads where the final one-score victories weren’t indicative to how well they played. During that span, the Vikings had the fifth-least amount of time trailing through five games in NFL history.
A truly dominant 5-0 start for the Vikings: pic.twitter.com/ecLar2h9Oz
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) October 7, 2024
Darnold was playing at an MVP level with 11 touchdown passes, 8.2 yards per attempt, and a 103.2 passer rating. The defense was at a historic pace in terms of defensive DVOA (-37.1%) and a dark horse contributor, kicker Will Reichard, stabilized the special teams as he was perfect on field goals (nine) and extra points (16). All three phases of the game coalesced into a perfect 5-0 start heading into their bye week.
Weeks 7 and 8 witnessed the only two losses so far this season, as they faced two high-powered offenses in the Detroit Lions and LA Rams, who exposed the Vikings defense primarily in the middle of the field with Blake Cashman out in each game. Meanwhile, the Vikings started to struggle with consistency on offense. But despite showing kinks in defensive armor and overall inconsistent play, the Vikings lost by an average of six points.
The last five weeks have been ugly wins against teams that are a combined 21-40, but even those wins have come in different forms. Darnold was erratic against the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars in back-to-back weeks with six turnovers (five interceptions, one fumble), but the defense forced five takeaways in what became vanilla, defensive slugfests, despite the Vikings dominating in total yards and time of possession in each game.
Now over the last three games, we’re seeing Darnold playing with renewed confidence and transitioning into the ultimate field general. He’s quietly had six touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 111.6 passer rating that is reminiscent to his early season MVP-caliber play. He even executed game-winning drives in back-to-back weeks.
Against the Chicago Bears, Darnold went 6-for-6 with 90 yards in overtime, leading the VIkings to a game-winning field goal. Finally, on the final three possessions against the Cardinals, he exhibited total command of the offense. Climbing back from 13 points down, he went 12-for-17 for 156 yards and two touchdowns in another pivotal one-score win.
The Vikings’ defense faced mobile quarterbacks the last two weeks (Caleb Williams and Kylar Murray) and despite only getting three sacks total, they got pressure on 35 of 92 passing attempts, according to PFF. That pressure led to several downfield incompletions and forced Murray to throw two costly interceptions (his second of which being Shaq Griffin’s game-sealer).
Now, this isn’t a perfect team. While the defense has been the staple of this team with its variety of blitzes and man-zone coverage schemes, the pass defense has shown vulnerability to chunk plays. Offensively, the running game has been mildly inconsistent despite some flashes, and the offensive line has struggled at times. These are all areas this team can improve upon with the coaching of KOC and Flores, along with the talented mix of player personnel.
But there’s something to be said about finding ways to win, even if we saw there was a limit to that mantra in 2022. Whether jumping out to big leads or playing close games, winning or losing time of possession, sustaining long, methodical drives or connecting on explosive plays, or if the defense smothers offenses or has to play a bend-but-don’t-break game, it doesn’t matter. This team continues to be effective and they continue to stack dubs. O’Connell prepares his team to do anything they must to claw out a win, and each week he gives a different, but practical recipe for doing so.
O’Connell’s 24-9 record in one-score games and third all-time winning percentage (.727) is a monument to how resilient his teams have been and how good the coach is at finding the right mixture and in-game adjustments to win football games. The law of averages would contradict this notion, and it would be hard-pressed to believe this team will win every game the rest of the season, but as a counterpoint: Scoreboard.
As players have highlighted, winning in the NFL is tough, and a team can’t have its A-game every week. There are going to be times when a team has to capitalize on miscues to win games they otherwise wouldn’t. And while the Vikings have, as of late, adopted an “Ugly wins are still wins” mantra, it’s also important to point out that they’re still fifth in the NFL in point differential (plus-78).
That’s a far cry from going 13-4 with a minus-three point differential. This year’s Vikings squad is good at winning close games because they’re good at the things that lead to winning games. They’re proving it by winning in every way possible, and the confidence that comes from having a blend of winning formulas should only help come playoff time.
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