Minnesota Won Its 2024 QB Divorce. Can They Win 2025’s?
Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images
In the closing minutes of the victory where Sam Darnold‘s Minnesota Vikings crushed Kirk Cousins‘ Atlanta Falcons 42-21, the discussion wasn’t about how the Vikings came out the victor in their break-up with their former QB. Instead, the announcers marveled at the idea that there might be another pending divorce between the Vikings and a successful QB.
“I think it’d be hard to make an argument if things continue like this that… how do you not bring back Sam Darnold and just try to continue to keep things rolling?” wondered Greg Olsen. “They’ve got some tough decisions to make this offseason.”
And while the Vikings picked J.J. McCarthy 10th overall in the draft and are poised to get a high-end QB prospect on a rookie contract… Olson’s got a point. Darnold is on pace to throw for 4,314 yards and 37 touchdowns. The only Viking to throw for more yards in a season are Daunte Culpepper in 2004 and Cousins in 2022. The only one to throw more touchdowns was ’04 Daunte. That’s it. List over.
The Vikings have had many aging QBs come in for a one-or-two year stint as an elite signal-caller. Warren Moon, Randall Cunningham, and Brett Favre all dazzled for a brief moment, but they all had an expiration date when the Super Bowl window slammed hard. As the Falcons are discovering, Minnesota may have had a similar dynamic had they brought Cousins back.
That expiration date shouldn’t exist with Darnold. If they brought him back on, say, a Baker Mayfield-style contract, he’d only be 28 years old for the 2025 season. He’s a year younger than Case Keenum was in 2017, when he brought the Vikings to the NFC Championship Game. While the Vikings rightly sought to upgrade from Keenum, Darnold’s draft pedigree (and Kevin O’Connell‘s coaching) provides protection against him turning back into a pumpkin.
At the same time, O’Connell made the call to spend the Vikings’ best draft capital in years to draft McCarthy because the coach believes McCarthy can succeed. What about that production has changed in the last four months? In fact, Darnold might stand as proof of concept for someone like McCarthy to succeed. They both have a similar frame, a big arm, and mobility in the pocket.
Darnold’s brilliant play would have kept McCarthy learning on the sidelines even if the rookie hadn’t torn his meniscus. That gives O’Connell a year to ingrain good habits and teach his QB of the Future his system before he ever has to take a snap in a regular season game. This was the plan all along, the only reason this is even a debate is because the transition plan is working better than anyone imagined.
And there’s a good reason the plan has always been to have Darnold pass the torch to McCarthy. Darnold is probably going to command about $30 million per year on the low end and as much as $38 million on the high. If you’re sold on Darnold and don’t have options, that’s a good deal. It’s not as good of a deal, however, as having McCarthy locked in for three more years at anywhere between $4 and $6 million. Just by definition, that’s two or three quality players you can add with those cap savings. It’s a Kirk-lite conundrum.
Though that opens up the Vikings coaches and front office to another round of scrutiny and second-guessing. If you thought Minnesotans were deranged about losing a geriatric Kirk Cousins coming off an Achilles injury, imagine the doomerism that will foment around letting a 35-plus touchdown QB hit the free agent market before his 28th birthday. It makes a ton of sense to stick with McCarthy as the future of the franchise… but Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell had better be right.
What happens when McCarthy struggles under center in September next season, and Darnold is throwing touchdown passes to Brock Bowers in Las Vegas, or Malik Nabers in New York? What happens if it takes a full year for McCarthy to adjust? Or, hey, what if he never gets to Darnold’s level, ever?
On some level, that’s not dramatically different than the situation would be if Darnold hadn’t transformed from a journeyman into a borderline MVP. If Darnold was simply passable in 2024, fully justifying a transition to McCarthy, Minnesota would still be in a position where they’d better be right with their rookie QB. When you’re billed as a quarterback guru, and you can’t make it work with the quarterback you hand-picked, that’s usually a fireable offense.
But the potential of Darnold flourishing elsewhere after thriving in Minneapolis has the potential to crank the temperature up even higher. It’s hindsight, but it feels like it was going to be very easy to win the Kirk divorce — again, there was a shelf life there. This next split with a beloved QB looks like a much trickier situation to come out on top of again.
Up Next