The Vikings Are At The Dark Horse Team Crossroads
Credit: Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images
The Minnesota Vikings’ 30-27 win against the Chicago Bears on Sunday kept fans on both sides at the edge of their seats. The Bears rallied to score 17 points in the fourth quarter, including 11 points in the final 22 seconds of regulation to force overtime. How improbable was that comeback? According to ESPN Analytics, the Vikings had a 99.9% win probability at 51 seconds remaining, when the Vikings enjoyed a 27-16 lead.
It looked like another painful round of the Minnesota Sports curse. But this time, the sky didn’t fall on the Vikings. Ultimately, Minnesota prevailed with a 29-yard field goal by John Parker Romo that cleansed the stain of the comeback and brought a sigh of relief to fans after another weird game in Chicago. The Vikings’ streak of ugly wins trend continued and raised questions about the legitimacy of this team, even as they survived the trap game.
Let’s address the elephant in the room: The Vikings are winning a lot of one-score games against lowly competition lately, giving fans flashbacks to the 2022 version that turned out to be a paper tiger. It’s why the fans’ clamoring for decisive wins are growing more and more each week.
Justin Jefferson certainly acknowledges that this team has not yet hit its peak, “I feel like a lot of people wouldn’t be able to compete with the different guys we have on this team,” he said, “we’re waiting for that day when we put it all together, for sure.”
So it begs the question, how good is this team, really?
From a standings perspective, the 2024 Vikings look similar to the 2022 squad, which went 13-4 in Kevin O’Connell’s rookie season as head coach (resulting in a first-round playoff exit). In 2022, the team finished in the top 10 in both offensive yards per game (seventh) and points per game (eighth), but near the bottom defensively in yards per game (31st) and points per game (28th). That resulted in an almost-impossible minus-three point differential for a 13-win team. It’s a simplistic metric, but it accurately flagged the 2022 team as a fraud.
The offense was proficient, but Ed Donatell’s soft-shell coverage defense proved to be the Achilles heel that allowed Daniel Jones (who, for an extra kick, was recently cut by the Giants) to score 31 points in that infamous playoff loss.
Those 13 wins came via a historic 11-0 record in one-score regular season games, which turned out to be more magic than a sustainable winning formula. Aaron Schatz, the creator of DVOA, reiterates that evaluation: “The 2022 team was close to the strangest year I’ve ever seen.” The 2022 Vikings DVOA ranked 28th overall, profiling as an eight-win team. Their DVOA wound up being the worst of any 11-plus-win team in 45 years.
Don’t look now, but this 2024 squad, which now boasts a 6-1 record in one-score games, which gives an eerie resemblance to 2022.
But the resemblances pretty much end there. While this year’s team has a top-10 offense in yards and points per game, this squad has an elite defense relative, especially when compared to the 2022 team. That defense is the reason why the Vikings are now fourth in point differential (plus-77), which neatly aligns with their fourth-ranked DVOA (22.2), all of which paint a picture of a team that is one of the best teams in the NFL.
Now the 2024 Vikings do resemble a 13-win squad in recent franchise history, but it isn’t the 2022 version. No, the most direct comparable comes from 2017, the Mike Zimmer-coached squad that made it to the NFC Championship Game. Both teams had a quarterback injured early (Sam Bradford; J.J. McCarthy), turned to journeymen quarterbacks (Case Keenum; Sam Darnold) who unexpectedly took off thanks to an offense loaded with weapons.
Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook, and Kyle Rudolph were all in their prime offensively in 2017, and the 2024 team has direct parallels in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones, and T.J. Hockenson. Each offense was led by a brilliant offensive mind (Pat Shurmur; O’Connell) who got the most from their quarterbacks.
Both defenses were elite units led by masterminds (Zimmer, Brian Flores), but went about it in different ways. Zimmer’s 2017 defense finished the year first in yards (275.9) and points (15.8) allowed per game, while Flores is orchestrating a defense that leads the league in defensive DVOA, pressures (126), and interceptions (16). Looking at the final result, getting blown out in the NFC Championship Game was disappointing, but those memories were much better than the ones we got in 2022.
There are two roads the 9-2 Vikings can go down if they keep winning: The 2017 road, and the 2022 road. Fortunately, the stats suggest that Minnesota is looking much more like a real, credible threat in the NFC (a la 2017) and less like a smoke-and-mirrors team headed for a rude playoff awakening.
While Vikings fans know better than to put the cart before the horse, you still have to acknowledge that there’s an energy and culture with this team that gives them those 2017 vibes, and while the analytics back it up, Minnesota needs to prove it. If Jefferson is right about this team having another level, then this team will continue to raise expectations as they approach what increasingly feels like an inevitable one-game showdown against the Detroit Lions to advance to the Super Bowl.
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