The Vikings Have To Be Smart With Harrison Smith’s Workload
Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images
The ongoing career of Minnesota Vikings safety Harrison Smith is one for the ages, so to speak. His on-the-field performance is undeniable, as he is one of four players all-time to have 35-plus interceptions and 20-plus sacks in their career, with his entire 13-year career coming with the Purple and Gold.
Smith’s reserved demeanor and stoic personality have been a rock of leadership for Minnesota over the past decade-plus. Although he may be a man of few words, when he speaks, others listen. He has earned respect by personifying the blood, sweat, and tears he’s poured into an organization, including on two occasions taking a pay cut to remain a Viking.
His career exemplifies dedication, longevity, and brilliant performance, which will surely see him enshrined in Canton someday. His name will unquestionably be etched into the Vikings Ring of Honor whenever he decides to hang up the cleats, but today is not that day.
Smith entered this season at the age of 35 and, impressively, leads the team in snaps (693) while continuing to play all over the field. Known for his bruising style of play, “Harry the Hitman” defines toughness and physicality with superior football IQ. That’s helped him lead the Vikings in tackles (64) along with one sack, seven passes defended, and two interceptions. Last Sunday against the Chicago Bears, the box score indicated that he played a strong game, collecting a team-high 11 total tackles (nine solo).
However, there are nuances in his play that hint that he is showing his age more than ever. Credit to him, he’s masking that with his intelligence and Brian Flores’ scheme putting him in the right position most of the time. But those signs are there, if you look carefully.
For example, midway through the fourth quarter with the Vikings up 24-10 against the Bears, D.J. Moore was the beneficiary of a pseudo-wide receiver screen with Rome Odunze (No. 15) and Braxton Jones (No. 70) out in front as primary blockers. Smith lined up near the goal line, and as Moore (No. 2) caught the ball, the safety had a line of sight and path to make a play on Moore. Instead, Smith hesitates, allowing Jones enough time to get to his spot and throw a block to get Moore into the end zone.
Caleb Williams (10) to DJ Moore (4)
Chicago Bears
10 yards
pic.twitter.com/jlhevK9J71— NFL Touchdown Videos (@NFLTDsVideos) November 24, 2024
No one says playing in the NFL is easy, but Smith historically plays with more aggression than this. Peak Smith would dart through the lane to beat the block and make a play on the ball, or at least take on the block in a way that could have redirected the play to the middle of the field, where he had help.
Regardless, it was a well-designed play by the Bears and Moore may have scored a touchdown either way, but the lack of decisive, aggressive play that fans have been accustomed to seeing from Smith gave some pause. Granted, Smith was tied with Blake Cashman for the team lead in snaps (76), and it was late in the game, so he could have simply and understandably run out of gas. But how often have we seen Smith without something left in the tank in the fourth quarter?
Another late-game situation (this time with the Vikings leading 27-16) saw Smith blitzing unblocked toward Caleb Williams. Instead of closing in and wrapping up, the rookie QB sidestepped Smith, running into open space for an easy loft toss to Keenan Allen for the touchdown.
The final touchdown is crazy as well. This is their biggest protection breakdown of the day as Harrison Smith is unblocked. I believe that is on 23.
Doesn't matter. He just ducks Smith, extends the play, and flips it to Keenan anyways. lol
24 got chewed out pic.twitter.com/1dcxPn8ttQ
— mike faltas (@mfaltas_) November 27, 2024
Now, Williams had been impressively eluding defenders all day. Andrew Van Ginkel also missed a sack while charging in unblocked earlier in the game, so that touchdown may have had more to do with Williams’ ability to evade the blitz than a failure on Smith. But once again, that’s a play that he would normally make at a crucial juncture in the game, and the failure to convert the sack ultimately paved the path for the game to go into overtime.
A deep dive into some of the analytics for Smith indicates some regression. Over the last seven weeks, he has averaged a 54.4 PFF overall grade, which would rank him in the bottom third amongst safeties. But thanks to a hot start, his season grade is tied for 35th in overall defensive grade (61.9) among 68 qualifying safeties with at least 400 snaps.
Amongst those same qualifiers, his strength has been in run defense (75.0) and tackling (68.8), while he has not been great in the pass rush (55.4) and coverage (57.1).
With six regular season games remaining before the playoffs start, Flores would be sensible to start limiting Smith’s snaps and turn to Theo Jackson in certain packages to help reduce some of the wear and tear on the veteran safety. As great as Smith is, we know Jackson is more than capable of picking up some of Smith’s workload.
Jackson sported a 67.6 PFF grade in 125 snaps last season, but has only played in 23 snaps in 2024. Still, in a small sample, his 70.9 overall grade would be top five on the Vikings if he qualified. Flores has the option of either leveraging Jackson more, or if he doesn’t want to do that for some reason, scheming fewer three-safety coverage packages to reduce some of Smith’s team-leading snap count.
There’s no denying Smith’s Hall of Fame resume, and his intelligence is going to be needed in the playoffs. His intelligence is going to be a weapon for the team, but not if they wear him out before the postseason. With his recent dip in play, it makes little sense to keep giving the 35-year-old the most playing time. It would be much smarter of Flores to cut back on some of those snaps and keep him fresh and ready for the games that matter most.
The Vikings have an opportunity to make noise in the playoffs, but today is not that day. Minnesota must use their 9-2 record as a luxury to ensure that key players like Smith are 100% ready when that day comes.
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