The Minnesota Vikings Need the Right Sort Of Win
Credit: Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images
It’s easy to dismiss any concerns Minnesota Vikings fans have by saying “Scoreboard.” Or, rather, “Standings.” And hey, no one’s going to argue that the Vikings aren’t 7-2, which is the third-best record in the NFC going into the weekend. They’re much closer to being at the top of the Conference (one game behind the Detroit Lions) than they are to being out of the playoff picture (two games up on 8th-place San Francisco, with the head-to-head tiebreaker).
But ask yourselves… when was the last time this team truly inspired confidence in you? If you’re being honest, it was probably the 31-29 win against the Green Bay Packers in Week 4. And even then, the vibes were much better at halftime, when they took a 28-7 lead at Lambeau Field.
The before-and-after of that game is low-key nuts. The Vikings’ first four opponents only have a 19-19 record this season, but they included last year’s NFC Champs and two current playoff teams. And they crushed, out-scoring opponents 116 to 59. Since then, however, the Vikings are 3-2, but against a slate of five teams combining for a 21-27 record, and one of those are the 8-1 Lions. And they have not crushed, sporting a plus-7 point differential (105-98).
We can throw out that weird London game, but Minnesota looks like a completely different team from Weeks 1-4 and 7-10. Here’s the before and after on their first four and last four games:
Offensive Points Per Game: 27.3 / 19.0
Defensive Points Allowed: 14.8 / 18.0
Yards Per Game: 340.8 / 369.0
3rd Down%: 43.5 / 39.5
3rd Down% Against: 31.5 / 38.1
Sacks (Offense): 11 / 12
Sacks (Defense): 17 / 10
Turnovers: 7 / 8
Takeaways: 10 / 7
In just about every aspect of the game, the Vikings were better to start the season than they’ve been over the past month. They were more efficient on both sides of the ball and their offense was potent. Sure, they might have had every break going their way — Brian Flores’ new-look defense got to sneak up on Brock Purdy and Stroud, and Jordan Love was rusty due to injury — but they were undeniably dominant.
Meanwhile, it’s not just the stat sheet that makes these past four games look bad. Watching these games doesn’t help put the concerns to bed. It’s great that Minnesota got the win against the Indianapolis Colts, for example. But there’s zero reason the Vikings should have had to come back from down 7-0 at halftime (at home!) and win a nail-biter. The Jacksonville Jaguars have won two games this year and started Mac Jones, but Cam Bynum needed to snag a last-minute interception to make four field goals enough to win last Sunday.
You have to stack wins, yes, and the Vikings have found a way. Great. The team’s playoff odds are at 92% right now, per Next Gen Stats. Minnesota has to be less about getting wins, and more about getting the right sort of win, and that starts on Sunday in Nashville.
Let’s not make any mistakes here: The Titans are bad, and good teams obliterate them. The Lions demolished them 52-14 in Week 8, needing just 15 passes from Jared Goff to get the job done. The week before, the Buffalo Bills smoked them 34-10, putting up 34 unanswered points after an early-game scare. Heck, the Packers creamed them in Week 3 (30-14) with Will Levis, the quarterback who was so bad that the Titans surrendered him for a seventh-round pick.
If the Vikings get saved by the defense in another squeaker, they’re going to look like pretenders. No one’s going to remember how they destroyed C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans anymore, what will be fresh in their mind is how they barely escaped the dregs of the AFC South with a 3-0 record.
No, they need to prove that they’re among the NFL’s elite, and that only is going to happen if they take care of business against an inferior opponent. We’re talking 60 minutes where the Vikings look good in all three phases of the game. Their offense can’t just march down the field, they need to score touchdowns. Their defense has to get pressures and sacks. Their special teams must be mistake-free.
They don’t need every break to go their way like it did in September. But it shouldn’t take many breaks going Minnesota’s way to easily dispatch the Titans. They just need to play disciplined football, not shoot themselves in the foot, and have their players feeling themselves and building confidence. Anything less will only perpetuate the creeping concerns around the team.
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