Justin Jefferson Is the Minnesota Vikings’ Plan At Quarterback
Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
We’re a week past watching Justin Jefferson sign his new contract with the Minnesota Vikings, and the sticker shock still hasn’t quite worn off. The four-year, $140 million deal (with $110 million guaranteed) doesn’t just make Jefferson the highest-paid wide receiver in the league by $3 million per year. It makes him the highest-paid non-quarterback in the NFL.
Look at how the Vikings valued Jefferson, and he’s right there with several other mid-to-high end starting quarterbacks in the league. Jefferson makes more than Baker Mayfield does for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($33.3 million), coming off a 4,000-yard season where he delivered the Bucs a playoff win. He’s a stone’s throw away from the salaries boasted by New Orleans Saints’ Derek Carr and former Super Bowl Champion/Future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers ($37.5 million).
Jefferson’s Average Annual Value sits at 16th in the NFL, with only Nick Bosa ($34 million), A.J. Brown ($32 million) and Chris Jones ($31.75 million) as the non-quarterbacks joining in the top 20. We know Jefferson is great, and he might just be the best non-quarterback player in the league. But still, why pay any non-quarterback in the NFL the kind of money that quarterbacks command?
The reason is simple: Jefferson isn’t just a terrific wide receiver. He is, for all intents and purposes, the Vikings’ plan at quarterback. They are counting on him to have a quarterback-like impact on the team, and are right to do so.
Essentially, Jefferson is sticking around to make sure the Vikings are quarterback-proof. Sure, they’re hoping that their evaluation of No. 10 overall pick JJ McCarthy is the real deal, particularly under the tutelage of Kevin O’Connell and Josh McCown. Can Minnesota put all their eggs in that basket, though? As strong of an arm and pedigree of winning McCarthy has, more highly-touted prospects than him have failed to deliver before.
First-round quarterbacks simply don’t have the strongest record. Or at least, not nearly as strong of a record as signal-callers that get to throw the ball to Jefferson. If McCarthy is Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s Plan A, a Jefferson-oriented offense is the best backup plan the GM can put in place.
After all, as Matthew Coller of Purple Insider pointed out last week, quarterbacks had a 112.1 QB rating when throwing to Jefferson last season. Those 100 targets that went Jefferson’s way represented about 26% of every pass attempt thrown over the 10 games in which he played. Yes, playing five of those games with Kirk Cousins, who if nothing else, can pile up some stats, helps with that. But there’s also a lot of Nick Mullens with a sprinkling of Josh Dobbs and Jaren Hall in that mix, as well.
Jefferson setting that high of a floor for over a quarter of his field general’s throws is a major impact on its own. The attention he draws almost certainly opens up the field for other weapons in Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson. You could see the difference in explosiveness in these players with and without Jefferson last season.
From Weeks 6-12, Addison had 35 catches on 53 targets for 437 yards. It was a strong performance, which even came with a higher catch percentage (66.0%) than in the weeks Addison played with Jefferson (63.6%). On the whole, though, you might still give Addison with Jefferson the edge. He gained 8.62 yards per target in games he played with Jefferson, as opposed to a slightly lower 8.25 in games where he was the No. 1 option at wide receiver.
Hockenson also saw a slight uptick with Jefferson in the lineup, where he caught a whopping 45 of 58 targets (77.6%) for 7.38 yards per target. In Weeks 6-12, Hockenson saw his catch rate drop somewhat (72.5%), though he did have the edge in yards per target (7.71). The upside of this group could climb even higher, with Jefferson being fully healthy (he was held to under 100 yards in three of his first four games after returning from injury) and Addison looking to take a jump from rookie to sophomore. Led by Jefferson, this group is here to insulate any quarterback and set a high floor on whoever goes under center.
We’ll get our first test to see if Jefferson is able to make a quarterback-like impact when he’s tasked with single-handedly raising Sam Darnold‘s game this season. Bad situations or no, Darnold’s career 78.3% rating is pretty ugly to gaze upon. If Darnold can go or most of the season while averaging something in the 90s, it’d be surprising if we couldn’t attribute 10 or more points of QB Rating on Jefferson’s shoulders.
And if Jefferson can have that kind of impact with a journeyman like Darnold, it stands to reason that he can also single-handedly raise the ceiling of McCarthy. Sure, Jefferson plays near the sidelines and is listed at wide receiver on the depth chart. Still, make no mistake: His $35 million average salary is being dumped into the quarterback position.
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