Ivan Pace Jr. Still Has Work To Do This Offseason
Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Ivan Pace Jr. has been a rock star of a UDFA find for the Minnesota Vikings defense. To take the next step, however, he’ll have to fix his biggest flaw.
Thanks in part to Pace, inside linebacker looks like a rock-solid area of their roster, especially compared to pressing needs like running back, interior defensive line, and cornerback. Pace burst onto the scene as a rookie with 102 tackles, following it up with 72 in 11 games as a sophomore, a 111-tackle pace over 17 games. Along with Eden Prairie’s finest, Blake Cashman, they form a terrifying duo in the middle of the field.
But between the two, there’s no doubt: Cashman is the better player, by a long shot. Cashman’s versatility not only made him an integral piece of Brian Flores’ defense, but arguably the most valuable player on a unit with Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel. Anyone who thinks that sounds crazy can review Minnesota’s defensive performance from Weeks 7 to 10, when Cashman was injured.
To say all that isn’t a knock on Pace, it’s just that Cashman is a brilliant all-around player who has almost no weaknesses.
At the end of an 11-play drive, Blake Cashman blitzed and then turned around and hustled to make a tackle… then on the next play tracks a RB man to man and makes a 3rd down stop. He was everywhere vs. Arizona pic.twitter.com/DxOrOCaEQ8
— Matthew Coller (@MatthewColler) December 4, 2024
The same isn’t true of Pace. He’s a fantastic player in certain roles, but his total package comes out as being a bit pedestrian. We can start with what he’s tremendous at: During the 2024 season, Pace ranked as a top-three linebacker in PFF’s Pass-Rush Grade (89.1) and was 14th in Run Defense Grade (85.4). Those two things alone still make him one of the best moves Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has ever made.
However, Pace massively regressed in coverage from his rookie campaign to last season. In 2023, Pace was incredible against the pass, and not just by rookie standards either. Ivan Pace ranked 17th amongst all linebackers with a 77.7 coverage grade, establishing himself as the Vikings’ best inside linebacker at just 23 years old. But in his sophomore season, things took a complete 180. Pace wound up finishing 2024 as the lowest-graded coverage linebacker among players who had at least 300 snaps.
That’s right, in 12 months, Pace went from borderline-elite to dead-last in coverage. If he’s to be in the long-term plans of the team, he must rebound back to his all-around excellence.
Ivan Pace Jr.: 75.9 passer rating allowed in coverage this season
1st among all LBs 💥 pic.twitter.com/EgjL27rl2O
— PFF MIN Vikings (@PFF_Vikings) January 12, 2024
Pace is most certainly good enough to be a league-average starter. His skill set as both a top pass-rusher and run defender nicely complements Cashman’s strengths in coverage. The bigger question, though, is whether or not Pace is better suited as a starting off-ball linebacker who can hold his own in coverage, or more of a rotational pass-rusher who is good against the run. In short: Is Pace going to be Prime Anthony Barr or Ben Gedeon.
At his peak, Barr had the athleticism to hold up in space and was excellent covering opposing running backs in the passing game. Pace has great instincts, but if he had Barr’s athletic traits, he would have been drafted ninth overall instead of undrafted. Meanwhile, Gedeon was a productive off-ball linebacker in college who was drafted in the fourth round. In his short-lived prime, Gedeon served as the Vikings’ third linebacker behind Barr and Eric Kendricks. Although Gedeon wasn’t a starter, he was a star in a run-stopping role, earning a 79.9 PFF Run Defense Grade in 2017.
14: 2018 vs Minnesota: Ben Gedeon plays this well, actually plugs that gap perfectly, he just can't stand Carson up. pic.twitter.com/dNA0MIkV2H
— hashtag MVGeno (@wrongopinionman) March 23, 2024
The Vikings need to figure out where Pace is on that spectrum. Is he a Barr-esque, bona-fide NFL starter, or a Rich Man’s Gedeon, a high-end role player? Now, Pace is definitely more impactful at this stage of his career than Gedeon ever was, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he should be locked in as a starter in 2025, and certainly beyond, if better options are available.
Especially since the depth behind Pace and Cashman leaves a lot to be desired. Kamu Grugier-Hill is a career backup who is now on the wrong side of 30. Brian Asamoah had a good rookie season for Ed Donatell in 2022, but hasn’t been able to earn enough of Flores’ trust to get some snaps anywhere other than on special teams. If the team isn’t confident Pace can fix his coverage issues, maybe this is an area to address now.
One player to keep an eye on is San Francisco 49ers linebacker Dre Greenlaw, who is set to be a free agent. Greenlaw is one of the best coverage linebackers in the league, and if the Vikings signed him, he could add yet another dimension to Minnesota’s pass defense. Brian Flores loves versatile linebackers like Greenard, Van Ginkel, Cashman, and Dallas Turner, all of whom can rush the passer and drop back into coverage. Adding Greenlaw into the mix would make it even more difficult for opposing offenses to establish the intermediate passing game.
INT NO. 2 FROM DRE GREENLAW!
📺: #GBvsSF on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/yDUx5ZutVa pic.twitter.com/m2bUwvM8TK— NFL (@NFL) January 21, 2024
The problem with potentially signing Greenlaw is that he’s projected to fetch a salary of at least $6 million per year on the open market, and possibly more. Handing Greenlaw a $6-to-8 million deal could theoretically prevent Kwesi from signing a bigger-name free agent at a greater position of need. Since Pace is on his rookie-scale contract, it’s much more likely that Minnesota will stick with with him in hopes that he returns to his 2023 form. That might be the right call, but Pace’s decline from his rookie to sophomore season makes upgrading their inside linebacker depth a sneaky-crucial item on Minnesota’s offseason checklist.
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