How High Can Jordan Addison Fly?
Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Find someone who loves you as much as the Minnesota Vikings love 31 teams handing them elite wide receivers. It’s a lineage that goes back as far as time immemorial. Anthony Carter was a three-time All-American, but the Miami Dolphins all but gave him to the Vikings in 1985. The Vikes snagged Cris Carter off waivers in 1990. 20 different franchises passed on Randy Moss in the 1998 Draft, and let’s not forget the Vikings’ brain trust laughing their actual asses off as the Philadelphia Eagles drafted Jalen Reagor over Justin Jefferson.
Three years after Jefferson landed to the Vikings at Pick 22 in the 2020 Draft, the Wild scooped up a falling Jordan Addison at 23rd overall. All he did was catch 70 passes for 911 yards and 10 touchdowns. Oh, yeah, and he says he’s going to be even better this year. Let’s have Jesse Pinkman stand in as the face of 31 other franchises right now:
His coach is perhaps the biggest believer in Addison’s further breakout. “[He] had as good of an offseason program as really you can ask for,” Kevin O’Connell told ESPN’s Kevin Siefert. “From a standpoint of getting a little stronger, getting a little more comfortable playing through contact… you saw some real growth there.”
It’s at the same time easy and difficult to see Addison hitting another level. On one hand, he was a rookie, which means he should get better. At the same time, Addison was about as great as anyone can be for a rookie receiver. Siefert notes that the only receivers to clear 70 catches, 900 yards, and 10 touchdowns as a rookie over the Super Bowl Era were Odell Beckham, Jr. and Ja’Marr Chase.
That’s absurdly limited company, but did those two players have another level to get to?
Arguably? No. Or at least, not a gigantic leap. Though perhaps the heights they both reached were so high that no one could realistically build on them. Beckham, Jr. dominated like almost no one ever has in the NFL before. His 108.8 yards per game that season wasn’t just unrepeatable for him, but almost everyone else in league history. Antonio Brown is the only person to average more than Beckham, Jr 108.8-yards per game more than once. Beckham, Jr. followed up his rookie season with 6.4 catches per game (down from 7.6) and 96.7 yards per game as a sophomore.
After evenly splitting targets with Tee Higgins as a rookie, Chase established himself as Cincinnati’s true No. 1 receiver in Year 2. That added responsibility added more catches per game (7.3, up from 4.8 as a rookie), but the corresponding attention made yardage harder to come by than it was the year before. Sophomore Chase’s two-and-a-half catches per game only gave him a 1.6 yard gain (87.2, up from 85.6) compared to his rookie season.
As great as Addison was, and as rarified the air as he’s in, he hasn’t put that ceiling on himself. Sure, 70 catches and 911 yards and 10 TDs is a big amount, but among all players, those totals “only” ranked 40th, 33rd, and (tied for) fourth in the NFL last year. There’s room to grow.
Going back to comparing Addison’s rookie year to every rookie wide receiver in the Super Bow Era, we can lower the cutoffs to 60 receptions/800 yards/8 TDs and get a list of 18 names for which we have data on their sophomore seasons. As a group, this is the statline they averaged as rookies, prorated to 17 games:
79 receptions / 1,166 yards / 11 TDs
How did they do as sophomores, on average? Let’s do the same math.
85 receptions / 1,143 yards / 7 TDs
Right there, that’d be an incredible stat line for Addison heading into Year 2. We’re talking about a slightly more explosive sophomore season as the one we saw from Jordan Matthews for the Philadelphia Eagles (85/997/8). That’s a slight dip in touchdowns from 10, but ask any fantasy owner how stable receiving touchdowns are from season-to-season.
Even if we want to look at a percentage increase from year-to-year, rather than the average of these 18 players, we’re looking at a 7.6% increase in receptions, a 2% decrease in yardage, and a 36.3% decrease in touchdown receptions. Applying those to Addison, and we reach this as a reasonable floor:
77 receptions / 893 yards / 6 TDs
The potential worry here, though, is that Addison could get better but still not have that reflect in his numbers. It’s a question of targets. In Weeks 1-4, then 14-18, when Jefferson was in the lineup, Addison had only 46 targets over nine games, or 5.1 per game. Meanwhile, Jefferson got fed over twice as much as Addison, with 94 targets over those nine games.
So Weeks 6 through 12 — the seven games where Jefferson was fully out and not a factor at all — saw Addison get 50.1% of his targets, 50.0% of his catches, and 48.6% of his yards. Let’s expand the With Jefferson and Without Jefferson versions of Addison to a full 17-game schedule:
With Jefferson: 85 catches (129 targets), 1,061 yards, 10 TDs
Without Jefferson: 55 catches (87 targets), 774 yards, 9 TDs
That second sample includes three games where Addison was a non-factor (Weeks 4, 13, and 16), which dilutes the numbers, but that’s also the risk with Addison as a No. 2 receiver. There are only so many balls to go around, and it’s easy to get lost in the shuffle.
TJ Hockenson’s health is in doubt to start this season, and he was so often the safety valve for Minnesota’s rotating cast of quarterbacks. That might theoretically open up targets for Addison, but Aaron Jones is also entering the mix. Over the past five seasons, Jones averaged 4.3 targets per game, which is only slightly less than Alexander Mattison, and Cam Akers had combined last year (4.8).
While there’s certainly room for Addison to grow, and he’s had a great offseason, it might be wise to not completely run wild when projecting out his sophomore season. Regardless of whether or not the breakout is coming this season or next, however, Addison should still be able to shine alongside Jefferson, with plenty of upside if things go smoothly.
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