Finding Sanity In The Sam Darnold/J.J. McCarthy Debate
Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and the Minnesota Vikings organization have a quarterback conundrum on their hands. The Vikings drafted J.J. McCarthy 10th overall with the expectation that he’d be the franchise guy, while they signed Sam Darnold on a one-year deal to be the bridge quarterback. However, no one outside of TCO Performance Center (and probably not many inside) expected Darnold to play at an MVP-caliber level, and at 27 years old, he’s making a legitimate case to be Minnesota’s franchise guy moving forward.
Adam Schefter reported that teams are expected to call the Vikings to inquire about McCarthy’s trade availability. Schefter believes that Minnesota could get back all the draft capital they put into him and then some, adding that “McCarthy would’ve been a top, if not, the top quarterback in this draft.” Colin Cowherd thinks the Daniel Jones signing could be indicative of a potential McCarthy trade, and that Minnesota would be wise to trade McCarthy for a package built around a second-round pick-plus to a quarterback-needy team to replenish their 2025 draft capital.
.@ColinCowherd says the Seahawks should trade for J.J. McCarthy:
"If I ran Seattle… I'd make the deal tomorrow." pic.twitter.com/SHL7nqKxU7
— Herd w/Colin Cowherd (@TheHerd) January 2, 2025
On the opposite end of the spectrum, we have SKOR North’s Thor Nystrom, who is all-in on McCarthy for 2025 and beyond, regardless of the circumstances. Thor argues that the better Darnold performs, the more he’ll price himself out of Minnesota. Because of that, he believes this creates a predetermined outcome where the value proposition in keeping Darnold is no longer feasible, and extending him would go against Kwesi’s carefully constructed multi-year plan that led up to this point.
But honestly… why does it have to be one or the other? The Vikings might well be best served by keeping both for 2025.
"Let's throw away the future so that we can pay him for the statistical manifestation of his circumstance, it's not going to happen" 🙅♂️
– @thorku on the possibility of extending Sam Darnold pic.twitter.com/MXYqQ817W7
— SKOR North – Minnesota Sports (@SKORNorth) January 3, 2025
The problem with Thor’s take is that aside from a small sample size of college and preseason film, we have no idea if McCarthy will play better than Darnold. Even if they load up on high-level free agents with the money saved by not retaining Darnold, the odds of the Vikings being worse in 2025 with an inexperienced quarterback are pretty high. If Minnesota lets Darnold go too early and the (for all intents and purposes) rookie struggles, people are going to start saying that the front office made the wrong decision, and being perceived as mishandling a QB situation is how GMs get fired.
Having said that, the issue with Cowherd’s take is that trading McCarthy for anything less than the 10th overall pick (or the equivalent of it) would mean the Vikings would have to accept losing value on a trade, which is also not a great look. McCarthy is also the most talented quarterback prospect the Vikings can expect to be in a position to draft, because their roster is too talented to be able to tank. The only reason why the Vikings were able to land McCarthy in the first place is because Kirk Cousins suffered a season-ending injury which led to the Vikings finishing the 2023 season 7-10.
Behind the ESPN+ paywall, Jeremy Fowler proposed a three year, $100 million extension for Darnold with strong cash flow as a potential option for Minnesota. A similar framework to this proposal would be beneficial for Darnold, McCarthy, and the Vikings organization as a whole. For Darnold, re-signing with the Vikings this offseason is in his best interests, because it ensures his play won’t regress due to a drop-off in roster quality. This also keeps the organization’s short-term window open, allowing them to see if Darnold can truly lead Minnesota to a Super Bowl win.
After asking several league executives what they thought the @Vikings will do with Sam Darnold this offseason, @JFowlerESPN says a "slight majority" believes they keep Darnold via an extension or franchise tag.
Fowler noted a 3-year / $100M deal with strong cash flow as an… https://t.co/dvgp6sVEEJ pic.twitter.com/oRS0dC3mb2
— The Purple Persuasion (@TPPSkol) January 2, 2025
Even if Darnold fails to lead the Vikings to the promised land, keeping him in Minnesota through 2027 may be what’s best for McCarthy’s long-term development. McCarthy, 21, is one of the youngest and least experienced quarterbacks from his draft class, only starting in 28 games at Michigan. The Green Bay Packers have found success with their non-traditional quarterback development approach, putting Aaron Rodgers on the bench behind Brett Favre for three years before earning the starting role, and doing it again with Jordan Love, who was Rodgers’ backup for two years before he took over as the starter.
Minnesota would be wise to take a page out of the Packers’ book by having McCarthy sit and learn Kevin O’Connell’s notably complex offense for the next three years until he’s fully prepared to become the starter. Lastly, it’s in Kwesi’s best interest from a negotiation standpoint to reduce McCarthy’s agents’ leverage to demand a highly-lucrative second contract for McCarthy. The best way to do that is by keeping Darnold around long enough to prevent McCarthy from starting in too many games and gaining negotiating leverage before his rookie contract expires.
Pundits across the board are divided on which quarterback the Vikings should keep after this season. Some, like Thor Nystrom and Nick Miller, won’t entertain the possibility of keeping Darnold past 2024 because of their belief in McCarthy as a prospect and the financial benefits of having a quarterback on a rookie scale contract. Others, like Cowherd and Mike Tannenbaum, think there’s value in Minnesota selling high on McCarthy and rolling with Darnold as the franchise guy. There are benefits to keeping both, so why not keep both? There’s no reason why Minnesota can’t have McCarthy and Darnold in Minnesota for the medium term.
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