The Importance of the Dallas Turner Butterfly Effect
Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
The NFL is the ultimate What have you done for me lately? league. Most of the time, that fact is used negatively. Sure, maybe you took us to a Super Bowl three years ago… but you just went 6-11. Bye. It rarely works in your favor. But Minnesota’s third-year general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is gunning to get the recency bias on his side, even as his highest-profile failure took its final ugly turn on Tuesday.
Lewis Cine, the front office leader’s first-ever first-round draft pick, was officially cut by the Vikings as they finalized their 53-man roster. Cine’s departure is the culmination of two atrocious years with the team. Even worse, the young safety’s departure comes just two weeks after Kwesi’s second-ever draft pick, Andrew Booth, was dumped onto the Dallas Cowboys for Nahshon Wright, a player Minnesota valued so little that they cut him along with Cine.
By any standard, losing your top two picks in a draft before they even fu;fill their rookie deals is an absolute disaster. For Kwesi, an unproven youngster with a non-traditional football background, it just added gas to the fires of doubt from Vikings fans and media.
Year 2 saw the GM ward off the angry mob with a home run first-round pick in Jordan Addison and the use of his second-round pick to acquire a star tight end in T.J. Hockenson. Now, heading into a crucial Year 3, most believe that Kwesi’s 2024 Draft class will be the crucial tie-breaker in evaluating his performance. But while most view that discussion mainly through the success or failure of quarterback J.J. McCarthy, Dallas Turner is every bit as much of a make-or-break pick.
A historically offense-centric draft led to one of the year’s top, elite defensive prospects falling all the way to No. 17 overall, where the Vikings pulled the trigger on a trade up from 23. Turner, who some draft experts have even been so bold as to compare to Micah Parsons, has every tool in the bag to make that projection a reality. But Turner’s impact could go even further than potentially matching the All-Pro Cowboy’s consistent double-digit sack seasons.
The NFL is ultimately a math equation, and finding an out-of-the-gate superstar who gives a team big-money production on a rookie contract can change the entire landscape of a team’s future. On the other hand, a bust can bring a young team’s development to a screeching halt. And if you’re Kwesi, Turner busting would that mean the question, What have you done for me lately? becomes dangerous for his tenure.
If Turner is a Day 1 stud, however, that’ll be what Kwesi will have done for Minnesota lately: Bring in a cheap impact player. The top edge-rusher in the league is Nick Bosa, with a contract averaging $34 million per season. The Vikings said goodbye to Danielle Hunter, who’s making $24.5 million a year, tied for sixth at his position. Minnesota replaced him with Jonathan Greenard, whose average salary was tied for 14th, at $19 million.
Turner’s locked in at an average of $3.94 million for the next four seasons. That’s 11.6% of the price of Bosa, 16.1% of Hunter’s salary, and one-fifth of the cost for Greenard. In the math equation that is the NFL, that means if Turner’s a top-15 edge, he frees up $15 million for somewhere else on the roster.
We all know how much a solid rookie-contract QB can elevate a team. It’s a tried-and-true path to a Super Bowl. The Vikings hope they have one in McCarthy ready to take over next year with a bunch of weapons at his disposal. But edge rusher is perhaps the premium position on the defensive side, and those high salaries we just listed reflect that fact. A star performance from Turner has the potential to open a Super Bowl window nearly by himself. In doing so, he would delete Cine and Booth from fans’ memories and cement himself as a Draft Guru.
If Turner doesn’t develop, things could spiral quickly. He would be three of five failed, high-profile draft picks under this regime – with the jury being out on McCarthy. Not to mention, the Ricky Williams-esque cost for Kwesi to flip the 42nd overall pick up to 17.
Mensah would essentially enter Year 4 on the hotseat, hoping a first-time quarterback can save his career. Instead of keeping his salary cap powder drive to go superstar-hunting, Kwesi may be tempted to splurge on the kind of players who can save his job in the short-term. Instead of seeing out a plan, Turner fizzling could leave the regime scrambling to stay afloat.
Now, obviously there are caveats here. Any draft pick stepping up to reach the same level of, say, Andrew Van Ginkel. could have a similar effect on the long-term picture. But Turner possess the high-end potential to be a true difference-maker. The talent is there, but so is the pressure, and as such he becomes a human butterfly effect that can send the front office and coaching staff into two very different realities.
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