Brian Flores Must Navigate the Prevent Defense Trap
Credit: Brad Rempel-Imagn Images
With the 27-25 win over NFC North archrival Green Bay Packers on Sunday, Week 17 was the opportunity for several NFL analysts and national pundits to give the Minnesota Vikings the credit they deserve. Heading into the week, those talking heads largely viewed the Vikings as a fun story of a head coach in Kevin O’Connell creating confidence in his players to defy the odds. After the game, they learned this team is more than about fun, it’s about winning.
Sunday’s win and regular-season sweep of a highly-touted playoff contender should temper reservations about the legitimacy of the 2024 Minnesota Vikings. Getting a win against a battered Detroit Lions team next week and the Vikings would claim the NFC’s No. 1, the NFC North crown, and an air of undeniability.
Not too shabby for a team projected to win 6.5 games this year.
When Kirk Cousins signed with the Atlanta Falcons in the offseason, it was reasonable to think this would be a transitional year as Minnesota turned the page. Without Cousins and with Brian Flores retuning, the defense became the staple of the team after adding several key free agents to bolster the unit that went from 31st in total defense under Ed Donatell to 16th under Flores in one season.
In Flores’ second season as defensive coordinator, the Vikings’ defense is one of the premier units in the NFL, ranking fourth in points allowed (18.8) and looking outright dominant at times. One of those dominant performances was the first half on Sunday, when they held a team that had averaged 33.2 points in their last five games to three points through 30 minutes.
Flores got those results by changing things up. Coming into Week 17, the Vikings played zone coverage on 76.8% of their defensive plays, compared to 16.1% in man coverage, which ranks 30th in the NFL, per PFF. But in preparation for the Packers, Flores notified his unit that they would approach things differently this week, installing some new installs and designs against a challenging opponent.
“He watches the tape,” Stephon Gilmore said of Flores. “He knows what position to put us in. We’ve just got to make it work.”
The focus shifted from applying maximum pressure to playing disciplined rush concepts to bottle Packers quarterback Jordan Love in the pocket and limit his ability to roll right, where he is particularly dangerous, exposing defenses and discovering explosive plays off-script. His mobility, quick decision-making, and exceptional play from his offensive line are the reasons why Green Bay came into the game second-best in sacks allowed as a team (19).
The Vikings used man coverage on 47.1% of Jordan Love’s dropbacks, according to NextGen Stats, which is a far cry from the zone design concepts they have relied upon this season. This approach stymied Packers head coach Matt LaFleur in the first half, which he admitted to after the game:
“They had shown that [man coverage] a couple games,” LaFleur said. “Didn’t think we’d get it… we got to be able to adjust quicker and have some plays in there that can attack that coverage and that falls squarely on my shoulders.”
Flores’ game-planning and chameleon repertoire resulted in Love going 7-of-12 for 45 yards in the first half, which saw the Vikings take an imposing 13-3 lead.
But, as they say, football is a game of two halves.
In the second half, the Vikings were outscored 14-22, which was reminiscent of their first matchup. The Vikings jumped out to big leads in both games (28-0 in Week 4), only for the Packers to claw their way back to bring each game within two points.
As much as Flores has been a wizard in disguising his play-calling patterns, the core underlying theme in both cases was Flores’ decision to play more conservatively, throwing three-man rushes and soft shell, prevent coverages to minimize the threat of explosive plays, which the defense has been susceptible to this season.
The most glaring example occurred in the fourth quarter Sunday after Will Reichard’s second missed kick of the game that helped turn momentum the Packers’ way. While up 17 points, Flores used this cautious approach, which led to a quick nine-play drive and touchdown for the Packers that took only 3:06 off the clock. Instead of leaning on the disciplined scheme that had been working all game, Minnesota backed off on their focus to pressure Love and disrupt his timing.
While the final score wasn’t indicative of the dominating performances the Vikings displayed in each game — the lowest win probability the Vikings faced in either game during the second half was 77.3% — the fact is that changing their defensive approach allowed the end of those games to be much more stressful than necessary.
The Vikings face the Detroit Lions, the highest-scoring team in the NFL, on the road for Sunday Night Football this weekend. Even without David Montgomery, Detroit offers one of the biggest challenges any defensive coordinator can face. In their first matchup at home, the Vikings lost 31-29 on a field goal with 15 seconds left, making the Lions the first team to fully expose Flores’ zone coverage.
How Flores manipulates his installs, schemes, and play-calling this weekend will be telling. But no matter what adjustments he makes from their Week 7 showdown, Flores must learn from his defense being exposed twice in the second half against the Packers. If Flores can keep his foot on the gas and avoid reusing the prevent scheme, the Vikings can earn the right to play in the loudest home stadium in the league, with the Gjallarhorn horn, unified SKOL chants, and everything else that comes with it during the playoffs.
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