Acquiring Adam Thielen Comes With A Hidden Advantage
Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images
There are so many reasons why the Adam Thielen-to-Minnesota fires were burning for much of the summer. Once the Minnesota Vikings and their fanbase started feeling the creeping need to acquire a receiver, the draw to Thielen was obvious. Bringing back a two-time Pro Bowler, one who’s had experience in your coach’s complicated offense, and whose hometown connection would guarantee happiness on the part of the player? Swish. Who cares if he just turned 35? You make that move without thinking.
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No Vikings fan needs to learn what Thielen brings to his table, we all know about his route-running and hands. Even in a diminished form, he should be a strong complement to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison from Week 4 on.
But the best reason for the Vikings to adopt tunnel vision in targeting Thielen is what he offers to J.J. McCarthy, specifically. That is, a receiver whose production has been quarterback-proof throughout his whole career.
That might not sound like a necessity, given that Justin Jefferson has had huge games with Nick Mullens throwing at him. Obviously, Jefferson has succeeded with any signal caller he’s been given, and it’ll be shocking if he doesn’t put up big numbers with McCarthy.
Still, someone with Thielen’s track record of success with just about any quarterback throwing to him should only benefit McCarthy as he starts his reign as Minnesota’s starter. As confident as the Vikings are in their first-round pick, we just aren’t going to know if it’ll click or not until he starts at Soldier Field. The team is aware of that, seeing that their offseason strategy has been to insulate McCarthy as much as possible.
Thielen’s reliability under almost any circumstance only furthers that goal.
Obviously, the bulk of Thielen’s career has been with Kirk Cousins throwing him the ball. For whatever Cousins’ faults were, he was an above-average, reliable, steady quarterback. Over his five seasons with Cousins, Thielen averaged 58.6 yards per game.
During the two seasons before Cousins came to town and the two seasons after Thielen left, he averaged 65.6 yards per game. His quarterbacks over that span ranged from Game Managers to Rookies Chucked Into the Deep End. Among Sam Bradford, Case Keenum, Bryce Young, and Andy Dalton, which guy are you writing home about?
But in all that time, there was Thielen, racking up catches and yards. He even broke the 1K barrier on a 2-15 team with a quarterback who had a 73.7 QB rating in 2023.
The Vikings are hoping that McCarthy will step into a level higher than game manager and certainly not look as lost as Young did as a rookie. But if Minnesota is preparing for any possible outcome, Thielen helps them do exactly that.
Since the start of the 2018 season, quarterbacks have had a 111.3 rating when targeting Thielen. That’s ranked 13th among the 199 wideouts with 100-plus targets over that time. We’re talking a (slightly) higher QB rating than Justin Jefferson (108.4, 21st) and Jordan Addison (102.0, 43rd).
Beyond the stellar overall stats, Thielen’s also had an incredible amount of consistency. Here’s the year-by-year breakdown of QB rating when targeted:
2018: 115.2 (with Cousins)
2019: 130.0 (Cousins)
2020: 119.0 (Cousins)
2021: 119.0 (Cousins)
2022: 91.5 (Cousins)
2023: 102.3 (Young)
2024: 107.9 (Young/Dalton)
While we can’t get those numbers for 2016 and 2017, we know that Thielen caught 75% of his targets with Bradford under center, and 64.1% of his targets from Keenum. Presumably, we’d also be talking about QB ratings in the 100-plus range.
Some of those numbers are fueled by Thielen’s role — being a deep threat has never been his calling card — but they’re also a testament to how good Thielen is at what he does. Getting open isn’t easy in the NFL, but he’s able to find daylight when weaving through the mess of linebackers, safeties, and nickel corners that populate the intermediate passing game.
Regardless of how good and ready McCarthy is, he will need that security blanket. Ideally, Thielen will spend Weeks 3 through 17 competing with Jalen Nailor for the fourth-most receiving touches, behind Jefferson, Addison, and T.J. Hockenson. It’s a crowded room when healthy, and it’ll be a rare moment when defenses are able to blanket Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson. But those moments will arise.
They did last season. Minnesota’s interior offensive line took most of the heat when the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams defenses shut Minnesota down last winter. But does Sam Darnold hold onto the ball for far too long if Thielen was there to get open for a short catch?
Perhaps not, and that’s part of the bet that the Vikings are making with McCarthy. By investing in Jordan Mason, Will Fries, Ryan Kelly, and Donovan Jackson, Minnesota is creating a situation where McCarthy can not just hang in there, but thrive where Darnold faltered. Thielen is a perfect fit for that project.
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