What Should the Game Plan Be For Tua?
Credit: Jim Rassol via Imagn Images
For most teams, bringing back their $212 million man as quickly as possible would be a no-brainer the second their man is healthy. It’s slightly more complicated for the Miami Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa.
The former Alabama Crimson Tide star suffered another devastating concussion in Week 2 against the Buffalo Bills and has been on injured reserve since. After the injury, some questioned if he should ever step onto an NFL field again, and although that won’t be the case here, Mike McDaniel has made it clear they won’t be rushing him back here.
“I do expect to see him playing football in 2024,” McDaniel said Monday. “But where that is, exactly — we’ll let the process continue, since we still have time before he can even entertain anything. We’ll make sure that he’s diligent this week and assess after that.”
But when should that be? Should the Dolphins bring him back ready when he’s ready, or are more factors at play? Let’s break it down.
Tagovailoa being on the IR means he isn’t eligible to return to the field until Week 8 against the Arizona Cardinals. That means the Dolphins have at least one more game that Tagovailoa needs to sit out, next week against the Indianapolis Colts. With their offense since the injury, that’s far from a guaranteed win.
The Dolphins sit with a 2-3 record overall, and the AFC East is wide open right now, Miami is 1.5 games back of the 4-2 Buffalo Bills, and a half-game above the 2-4 New York Jets. And it’s a good thing the division is open, too. Given that every other division has at least two teams over .500, the Dolphins’ only path to the playoffs might be as division winners. If they lose against the Colts, the Dolphins fall to 2-4, and they fall even farther behind the Bills (who currently hold the head-to-head tiebreaker, which can only be taken from them with a win at Buffalo), making a playoff berth even more unlikely, even with a healthy Tagovailoa.
If that happens, then why risk his health now? A concussion can happen to anyone at any time, but the biggest predictor of future concussions is past concussions. During the 2022 season alone, he suffered two concussions and a third hit that, while not reported as a concussion, appeared to have the same characteristics as one.
If the Dolphins look to be out of the playoff race, or it looks like it’s going to take a nearly-perfect record just to sneak in, it doesn’t make sense to put the long-term health of Tua at risk. You never know when any player’s last NFL snap might be, but every play presents an elevated risk for Tagovailoa, and if that’s the case, shielding him from unnecessary NFL action may be the best long-term strategy, strictly from a keeping-him-on-the-field standpoint.
But what if the Dolphins win against the Colts, and Tua’s healthy enough to return against the Arizona Cardinals, then absolutely, it’s go time. If he’s been cleared by doctors, feels good enough to play, and the Dolphins are still in the thick of the playoff race, it makes a lot of sense to bring him back.
The Dolphins have tried Skylar Thompson and Tyler Huntley under center to replace Tua, and neither guy is leading Miami to the Super Bowl. Even though the Dolphins beat the New England Patriots in the last game, that was more about the defense playing well, and less about the offfense. There have already been a few times where Tyreek Hill has been wide open for an easy touchdown, and Huntley just missed him.
In the first game of the season before getting hurt, Tagovailoa threw for 338 yards and a touchdown against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Even though Jaylen Waddle is currently hurt, there are too many playmakers like him and Hill to waste their talents with a backup QB throwing them the ball in the middle of a playoff chase.
Most importantly, right now, the health of Tua comes first, and that needs to be the main concern with any decision. But the No. 2 concern must be whether the team is in position to make a true playoff run once he’s ready to return. The Dolphins have too much money invested in their quarterback to have Tua get hurt again and have him be out for part of next season, or longer, in some meaningless game this year. The way Miami will handle Tua coming back this year is going to have an impact that goes far beyond 2024. It’s a big decision, and the Dolphins have to be right.
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