Where Should the Expectations For Deshaun Watson Be?
Credit: Jessica Rapfogel-USA TODAY Sports
Ever since the sign-and-trade that fully guaranteed Deshaun Watson $230 million, he has been the No. 1 talking point for the Cleveland Browns. This is despite him playing only 12 games in the two years since. With inconsistent health and mediocre performance, most of the media, the NFL commentariat, and even Browns fans have chosen to give up on Watson.
If they’re right, the Browns made arguably the worst move in NFL history. Those two years are in the past, however, and the Browns are moving forward with Watson, hoping he can regain the form he showed with the Houston Texans. What must Watson do to flip the narrative on its head and prove that he is worth the price tag?
It’s easy to say, Go 17-0, or Lead the Browns to a Super Bowl victory, and go 17-0 on top of that,” which would be nice, considering he has wasted two years on his five-year contract. And those were the cheap years, where Watson’s total cap hit has been $28 million… combined. With it ballooning to nearly $64 million this year, the organization has to make up that lost ground, starting now.
Forget someone with Watson’s on-and-off-field baggage, how does anyone deliver on a $64 million cap hit for the next three years? One year at a time, perhaps. It might be unfair to expect the Browns to make the Super Bowl, but a playoff victory may be enough to silence the critics. If it’s clear that he’s part of the solution (rather than along for the ride, which it’s felt like the past two seasons) getting a win in the playoffs might get some positive momentum towards the public opinion on Watson’s contract.
That’s not going to be easy to do. For Watson to get a playoff win (or more) in his most important season, he’ll be going against an AFC that is fully loaded, to say the least.
The Kansas City Chiefs are attempting to complete the NFL’s first three-peat. Then there are perennial playoff teams like the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills, upstart playoff newbies like the Texans (who demolished a Watson-less Cleveland last postseason) and New York Jets. And that’s if the Browns make it out of the AFC North, the league’s toughest division.
The point is, even if Watson plays at an elite level during the 2024 regular season, nothing is guaranteed. Not even a Cleveland Browns playoff berth. It’s very possible we could see an 11-win Browns team miss the playoffs due to some weird tiebreaker, even if Watson can regain his form.
Where would that scenario leave Watson? Playing well individually, but missing the playoffs, might have worked for Cleveland in Years 1 or 2. But this year, it won’t come close to justifying a contract of Watson’s magnitude.
Even a playoff win might not turn down the heat that much. Let’s say Watson manages to lead Cleveland out of the Wild Card Round. Congrats. That brings up his Playoff Win Total during Cleveland’s Watson Era to a tie with… Daniel Jones. For $64 million, that’s not much bang for the buck.
With how much talent is surrounding Watson, many of whom will be cap casualties before Watson’s contract expires, the mindset for the Browns Super Bowl or Bust. If the Browns miss the playoffs in any of the three years left on Watson’s contract, it will be viewed as a monumental disappointment, one that Watson most likely won’t recover from. It might be enough to end his tenure in Cleveland.
Towards the end of his contract, the bare minimum expectations for Watson has to be set at an AFC Championship appearance. And that’s the absolute minimum, just to avoid having the reputation of this being one of the worst trades in NFL history. Considering his past, his talent, the talent around him, and his exorbitant salary, anything less will be considered a colossal embarrassment.
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