Debating the Pat Freiermuth Extension Conundrum
Credit: Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK
After securing Cameron Heyward with a three-year contract earlier this week, the Pittsburgh Steelers have another extension candidate on the docket. Pat Freiermuth is in the fourth and final season of his rookie deal, which means that for now, he’s a pending free agent.
This situation has divided the Steel City into two halves, and they’re both right. If you think the Steelers should take a leap of faith and extend Freiermuth right now, there are compelling reasons to do. And if you think the underperforming tight end needs to show you more before such a deal should be made, that’s perfectly reasonable, too.
Heck, it’s a conundrum that’s even dividing the beat writers. Brooke Pryor of ESPN said on an interview on 93.7 The Fan, “I’m less optimistic that [a Freiermuth extension] gets done.” Within hours, the Post-Gazette’s Matt Fittipaldo went on the same station to tell Steelers Nation the deal was coming “Any time now. I do think it’s gonna happen.”
So, while the fans can both be right (because you’re great and smart and read The Noise!), two beat writers predicting the opposite thing can’t be. So let’s look at the pros and cons of signing Freiermuth while we wait for it to happen (or not).
The Case To Extend
Say what you want about Freiermuth’s disappointing 2023, but we’ve seen proof of concept for him being a solid NFL tight end. Scrap the down year, and here is where Freiermuth ranked among tight ends between 2021 and 2022:
- 7th in receptions (123)
- 8th in yards (1,229)
- 9th in touchdowns (tied, 9)
- 6th in first downs (71)
- 12th in yards per game (38.4)
You might be left wanting more from Freiermuth, but at the same time, he spent his first two seasons as a top-10 tight end in the NFL. Looking at that, it’s easy to see Freiermuth’s 2023 as simply a product of injuries. A hamstring strain in Week 4 appeared to linger throughout the rest of the year, and hey, that’s something that happens.
It’s way more likely that Freiermuth bounces back to that previous level of play now that he’s healthy. Especially now that he’s in Arthur Smith’s offense and poised to be the de facto No. 2 receiver in Pittsburgh. Smith’s Atlanta Falcons had two top tight ends (Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith), rather than one main option like Pittsburgh has, but over 30% of the passing attempts targeted a tight end.
Why wait for Freiermuth to see 100-plus targets and rebound when you can sign him now, presumably for a cheaper price? He’s young, he still has potential, and we can pinpoint a reasonable explanation as to why he couldn’t build on the success of his first two years in 2023. It’s a risk worth taking.
The Case To Wait
Wait a second: How do we know Freiermuth is going to break out in Smith’s offense? We saw Freiermuth get 98 targets in 2022, and while he got 63 receptions and 732 yards (both sixth among tight ends), it didn’t feel like he was a game-changer. He scored just two touchdowns and ranked just 14th at his position in terms of yards per target (7.5; minimum 50 targets).
Maybe that’s nitpicky, especially since Kenny Pickett was throwing to him, but we also don’t know if Russell Wilson is going to bring a meaningful upgrade to Pickett. Prime Russ? Absolutely. Denver Russ? We’re not sure about that, especially since Wilson is entering his age-36 season.
And while you can attribute Freiermuth’s poor 2023 season to health, it’s worth pointing out that he’s been hurt in each of his three seasons. He had three concussions between 2021 and 2022, and while head injuries haven’t kept him out of many games thus far, those don’t tend to get better as a career goes on. As it stands, Freiermuth is yet to have played a full 17-game season.
So, let Freiermuth get a good, healthy season under his belt before giving him that payday. It’s not like signing him now is going to save a ton of money. A top-10 tight end — which Freiermuth can claim to be when healthy — makes around $10 million. The gap between that and a top-5 tight end is only around $4 million. Sure, every dollar counts, but also, it’s a relative drop in the bucket. If Freiermuth has a breakout year, you’ll gladly pay extra for that peace of mind.
Who’s ultimately right? Again, both of you. If the Steelers lock down Freiermuth, you can be fairly confident that it’s going to be at least decent value, so long as Freiermuth stays healthy. And if they wait, that’s fine, too. He can go into 2023 with something to prove and have a big year, and Pittsburgh should still be in a good position to extend him. It’s hard to see a bad outcome.
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