The Bucs Have A Serious Space And Time Problem
Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images
In order to play effective offense in the NFL you essentially need two things: Space and time. A clean pocket with enough time to go through progressions and make good decisions can make the difference between a top ranked unit and a coordinator getting fired.
The secret to Baker Mayfield‘s early success in 2024 has been his decision-making. He sees the plays, reads what the defense gives him and what his protection allows him to do, and makes the correct decision. Todd Bowles has called that out specifically in praising his quarterback. “He knows when to get down, he knows when the pocket’s clean to throw, and he knows when to run,” Bowles said of his game after a gritty Week 2 win.
Mayfield started Sunday missing the magic of the first two weeks, throwing a bad pick on his first deep ball of the game, despite solid protection. This throw, and the seven Denver Broncos points that followed to create a 0-14 hole for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, are on him.
PICKED!
Brandon Jones gets the ball back for the @Broncos.
📺: #DENvsTB – Sunday on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/gbDwujQh4b— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2024
But for the rest of the game, it was hard to argue that Mayfield didn’t take what was given to him. The problem was, the Bucs didn’t give him much at all. Every aspect of support surrounding the quarterback seemed to operate at a deficit.
Baker went 25-for-33 in the air, though calling it an “air game” is roughly as generous as calling Tommy Wiseau’s passing offense “The Greatest Show on Turf.”
Following both Tampa’s 26-7 loss to Denver and the late afternoon games on Sunday, Mayfield sat dead-last among quarterbacks in Average Intended Air Yards, with his passing attempts averaging 3.6 yards in the air (according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats). That’s the lowest mark of any quarterback in a game so far this season, with the exception of recently-benched Bryce Young in Week 2.
The high amount of touchdowns Mayfield’s thrown has obscured the fact that the big-armed quarterback has been fairly conservative going down the field. Among 35 eligible quarterbacks, Mayfield sits at 33rd with an average of 5.1 air yards per attempt. We’re talking Mayfield being lower on the list than backups like Thompson, Andy Dalton, and Malik Wills.
That shouldn’t be possible in this offense. Not only does Mayfield have the arm strength to play the deep game, they also have one of the best deep threats of the last decade in Mike Evans. Last year with Mayfield under center, Evans had an average depth of target of 14.0 yards, according to Pro-Football-Reference. His ADOT has never been below 12.0 yards.
Through two weeks, it’s been 8.9, and Mayfield didn’t look much Evans’ way on Sunday. The future Hall of Famer got just three targets thrown his way on the day.
It sounds like Mayfield had a clunker of a game, given all that, and he’s definitely not blameless. But we saw what happened when he tried to look further down the field and do more than a quick, short read: He got sacked. A lot. His seven sacks taken were the second-most in any game of his career to only a 2022 game with the Cleveland Browns, going against T.J. Watt‘s Steelers (he took nine).
For the second week in a row, Mayfield faced tremendous pressure from the defensive front. Against Aidan Hutchinson (who ran roughshod over Mayfield for 4.5 sacks last week), it was understandable. It’s Aidan Freaking Hutchinson. What the hell are you gonna do? But to be humbled this much by the Denver Broncos offensive line is a much more troubling showing for the offensive line. Denver’s pass rush was mediocre over the first two weeks of the season, earning a grade of 64.5 that put them as 18th-best in the NFL, according to PFF. The Broncos went from just four sacks in two games to being tied for the league’s fifth-best in an afternoon. That’s insane, and concerning.
Mayfield’s had to make the best of some rough blocking in front of him this season, and he’s done well mostly dinking-and-dunking down the field. You can’t really criticize him for that, but this offense needs more than a short-yardage aerial attack. Denver took away any time Mayfield had to look down the field, and they shut down the Bucs. But even if Baker is able to beat that defensive gameplan, as he did in Week 2 against Detroit, corralling Mayfield into that kind of play is a victory in itself.
Defenses (thanks to some poor pass-blocking) are effectively taking the ball out of Evans’ hands. In the past two weeks, Evans has five catches on nine targets for 59 yards. Eliminating Evans from Tampa’s toolbox isn’t going to lead to the kind of offensive explosion they want under Liam Coen, and it’s not going to help them win many games. But Evans can’t throw the ball to himself, and Mayfield can’t find Evans if he doesn’t have time to even more than five yards down the field. The Bucs simply need to give Mayfield the space to let him cook (or bake, I guess) the way he did last season.
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