McDermott Needs To Bring Bo Nix Back To Reality
Credit: Tina McIntyre-Yee via Imagn Images
The Buffalo Bills finally know their Wild Card opponent after the Denver Broncos were able to knock off the Kansas City Chiefs, who basically just rolled over and let Denver cruise into the playoffs. With the matchup coming on Sunday, the Bills are going to face off against a rookie quarterback in Bo Nix.
With that matchup set in stone, the talk going into the game is how the rookie Nix will fare going against the Bills’ defense and, more importantly, Sean McDermott. After all, McDermott has gone 11-4 rookie quarterbacks throughout his career.
Those stats are impressive, but are they all that relative to this game? After all, Nix, on paper, is better than a lot of those rookies that McDermott has knocked off. Let’s take a deep dive into the stats, and break down what impact the Bills’ recent history against rookie QBs might or might not have on this game.
The first game that McDermott faced off against a rookie quarterback was all the way back in 2018, against Sam Darnold, a game Buffalo actually lost. Even though they lost that game, Darnold only threw for 180 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. After that loss, the Bills reeled off five straight wins against first-year quarterbacks, but two of those five were against guys who aren’t even starting anymore (and a third was Dwayne Haskins, who tragically passed away before the book was written on his career). Devlin “Duck” Hodges is probably out doing some hunting, and a big reason might be because of what McDermott did when they faced off in 2019. He threw for 202 yards and a touchdown, but McDermott’s defense picked him off four times.
In the playoffs, McDermott has faced two rookie quarterbacks, one in 2021 and the following year in 2022. During the 2021 playoffs, the Bills were able to knock off Mac Jones and the Patriots 47-17. Jones completed 24 of his 38 passes for 232 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. Skylar Thompson filled in for an injured Tua Tagovailoa the following year, and the seventh-round rookie finished the game completing less than half of his passes for a touchdown and two picks.
One thing that has been consistent when they have faced rookie quarterbacks, especially in the playoffs, has been their ability to create turnovers. While we can throw out Thompson’s stats, given he was a backup and seventh-rounder, we should take a close look at what Buffalo did to Jones.
Jones’ rookie year feels very similar to Nix. Yes, Jones has looked awful for the last couple of years, but his rookie season was different. Back then, Jones had a Hall-of-Fame coach in Bill Belichick; Nix has a future Hall-of-Fame coach in Sean Payton. The former Alabama Crimson Tide standout led the Patriots to a 10-7 record in 2021. The former Auburn Tiger and Oregon Duck led the Broncos to a 10-7 record in 2024.
A closer look at the stats for both players’ rookie seasons reveal how much they look alike. Jones had a completion percentage of 67.6% for 3,801 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. Nix has completed 66.3% of his passes, 3,375 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Nix has been a little more dynamic in the run game, but the passing stats look very similar. And that should be a concern for Broncos fans as they head into the next couple of years with Nix as their quarterback, though that is a talker for a different day.
The biggest key stat for this weekend with Nix has to do with his home/road splits. Nix broke the NFL record for passing touchdowns at home during a season with 19. That means Nix has only thrown 10 touchdowns on the road, and three of them came in his final road game against the Cincinnati Bengals, which is one of the worst defenses in the league. That means over the other eight road games, Nix only threw seven total touchdowns.
That should both worry Broncos fans and excite the Bills Mafia. As good of a story as Nix and the Broncos have been this year, McDermott has faced very similar rookie quarterbacks and completely thumped them in playoff games. Nix’s road struggles are a huge red flag for a team that is going to have to travel into an intimidating stadium against a much better team. Especially if the Bills can force a couple of turnovers, the Bills should have no trouble reminding the rest of the league that Nix is a rookie.
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