Lucky Breaks Make Browns’ Brutal Schedule Manageable
Credit: Jessica Rapfogel-USA TODAY Sports
The Cleveland Browns finished last season 11-6, the first time the franchise has reached 11-plus wins since the 2020 season, and the second since 1994. Off the backs of Joe Flacco’s Comeback Player of the Year season and a historic Browns defense, the team secured the No. 5 seed in the playoffs.
One factor that made the Browns’ season so successful was their schedule. At a low .460 win percentage from their opponents, their strength of schedule ranked 26th in the NFL. This year, Cleveland’s schedule isn’t nearly so tranquil, as they are slatted to enter the 2024 season with the toughest slate of matchups in the NFL.
The Browns’ 2024 campaign may not be as daunting as it sounds on paper, however. The schedule itself is brutal, but it also has some fortunate breaks that ease things somewhat for Cleveland. Let’s take a look at what could turn this harsh gauntlet of games into a manageable challenge.
A Fantastic Start
The Browns open the season at home for the second time in a row against the one and only Dallas Cowboys. Dallas is a formidable opponent, going 12-5 last season, and winning the NFC South… just to get embarrassed in the playoffs by a young Packers team. This surely isn’t the easiest Week 1 matchup for the Browns, but it will be a great test to see where they stand after months of off-season training.
The good news is Week 1 will be the Browns’ toughest task in the first month or so of the season. The next four games will see Cleveland go on the road to face the Jacksonville Jaguars, come back home to play the New York Giants, followed by a road trip to the Las Vegas Raiders and Washington Commanders. From Weeks 2 through 5, Cleveland’s opponents combined for a .397 win percentage in 2023.
The biggest challenge in this stretch is at Jacksonville, but don’t forget that the Browns confidently handled the Jags during their previous meeting. As for the other three teams, there is no reason Cleveland shouldn’t roll through them. At worst, the Browns should head into Week 6 with a 3-2 record, and a Week 1 win positions them to a fast 5-0 start.
Perfectly-Timed Home Games
The Browns must come out of that first stretch of games well over .500, as it only gets tougher from there, with the hardest games coming at the end. The final five games of the season see Cleveland face the Pittsburgh Steelers, Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, and Miami Dolphins before finishing at the Baltimore Ravens. The bright side of this trial is that the Browns will play both the Chiefs and Dolphins at home.
Having Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in your own building as opposed to theirs is great, but getting Miami in the dead of Northeast Ohio winter is the jackpot. Last postseason saw the Dolphins play in Kansas City for one of the coldest games in NFL history. The Chiefs embarrassed the Phins in a 26-7 win. Miami is also historically terrible playing in the cold, losing their last 10 games that started when the temperature was under 40 degrees.
Cleveland also gets the Los Angeles Chargers at home in Week 9, which is nice to see, considering you can never count out a team with Justin Herbert at quarterback. Along with hosting the Cowboys and their annual three divisional home games, the home/away split leans heavily in the Browns’ favor. Playing the Eagles in Philadelphia Week 6 is probably the toughest out-of-division away game on the schedule.
AFC North Inflation
Last season, the AFC North became the first division in 88 years to have every team finish above the .500 mark. Finishing with an average win percentage of .632, the AFC North was far and away the best division in the NFL. As everyone plays six games in the division, Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh will also face some of the most difficult schedules in the league.
It has been no secret that for the better half of a decade, the Browns have owned the battle for Ohio. No matter how good the Bengals get, this trend will most likely continue. That kind of dominance cuts both ways for Cleveland, though. A trend Cleveland hopes to break this season is their 20-game regular-season losing streak at Pittsburgh.
That may change this season, as the Browns are only trending upwards as the Steelers have been slowly slipping into mediocrity. The Ravens in Week 17 may end up being the Browns’ toughest challenge all season, but Deshaun Watson did lead Cleveland to a convincing road win last year, so anything is possible.
The team’s bye week is also in a very favorable part of the season. Week 10 is much better timing for the bye than last season, which saw Cleveland get a ludicrously early Week 5 bye. Still, even with all these advantages, the Browns have a handful to deal with next season. But if the squad plays their cards right, they can start fast and leave their Division rivals unable to catch up with everyone beating each other up in a slugfest. If the Browns can lean into these small schedule advantages, they have a great chance to stun their critics.
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