What Happened To Jalen Nailor’s Breakout Season?
Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images
The Minnesota Vikings had a chance to put the game away and leave Nashville with a convincing victory over the Tennessee Titans. Up 23-13 with 11:05 left in the fourth quarter, Sam Darnold spotted Jalen Nailor blazing downfield past Amani Hooker and Darrell Baker Jr. A seemingly rejuvenated Darnold, who was having arguably his best game of the season, decided to take the deep shot towards the end zone. The pass was picture-perfect, but Nailor dropped the ball.
This drop by Nailor could have been the dagger. https://t.co/mEcZIGR43Y
— Kevin Brown (@KevinBrownNFL) November 18, 2024
For the record, this writer has been aboard the “Speedy” Nailor hype train ever since he was drafted by the Vikings. I’ve maintained a full, unwavering belief that he was destined to be Minnesota’s long-term slot receiver, even going as far as to participate in a half-hour-long debate staunchly defending his qualifications as a starter. There was definitely a feeling of vindication after Nailor reeled in seven catches for 106 yards and three touchdowns through the first three games of the season.
It looked like he was going on a breakout season, but Nailor’s dropped touchdown pass against the Titans serves as a microcosm of his performances as of late. Nailor has been extremely inefficient with the opportunities he’s been given. Over the last three games, he’s been targeted just six times and only has 18 yards on two receptions and no touchdowns to show for it. Is Nailor’s inefficiency simply due to poor execution on his part, or are there underlying factors behind his recent struggles?
Nailor’s role on offense expanded in Week 2, when T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison were both sidelined. Kevin O’Connell implemented Nailor in a variety of different ways, most notably in the intermediate passing game. This first clip below is from the Vikings’ home opener against the San Francisco 49ers. Nailor works the middle of the field, which normally isn’t something the Vikings ask him to do. Darnold’s throw was slightly off-target, but Nailor made the adjustment in stride to haul it in.
Absolutely love this 18-yard catch by Jalen Nailor against the San Francisco 49ers. Jalen isn't asked to work the middle of the field often, but I thought he did a nice job on this play. Sam Darnold's pass was thrown a bit behind him, but Nailor is able to make the adjustment. pic.twitter.com/PMTSXv1OYY
— 𝙩𝙮𝙡𝙚𝙧 (@TylerTalksBall) November 19, 2024
O’Connell did an excellent job of scheming Nailor open in this next clip. This play below is from the Vikings’ Week 3 matchup against the Houston Texans. Minnesota has the ball at their 26-yard line on 2nd & 7. Rather than following conventional wisdom by running the ball to reach 3rd & manageable, O’Connell has Nailor motion to the weakside. That motion gives him a free release from the line of scrimmage on the deep out route, and Nailor takes full advantage of it.
Fantastic playcall by Kevin O'Connell here. Texans defense thought this would be a run on 2nd and 7 at the MIN 26 yard line to get to 3rd and manageable. The motion to the weakside gives Jalen Nailor a free release at the line of scrimmage, and he takes full advantage of it. pic.twitter.com/bahYoAm6uS
— 𝙩𝙮𝙡𝙚𝙧 (@TylerTalksBall) November 19, 2024
Below is a pie chart that illustrates the direction of all the targets Nailor has received from Weeks 1-8 — before Hockenson returned to the starting lineup. Notice the amount of short middle passes on this chart. While three targets to the short middle of the field through eight weeks isn’t a lot, it’s worth noting that Nailor was efficient running routes over the short middle, catching two of his three targets in that area of the field.
Made a pair of pie charts that illustrates the direction of all the targets Jalen Nailor has received from two different timeframes. Here is Nailor's target direction pie chart prior to T.J. Hockenson's return… pic.twitter.com/cg0RBEMjeX
— 𝙩𝙮𝙡𝙚𝙧 (@TylerTalksBall) November 19, 2024
Now here’s a pie chart of the direction of the targets Nailor received from Weeks 9-11. The most obvious takeaway here is the fact that Nailor hasn’t been targeted in the short middle of the field at all since Hockenson’s return. Nailor had just one target towards the deep middle of the field, and that pass resulted in an incompletion. Hockenson’s return, combined with Josh Oliver’s ascension, has negatively impacted Nailor by taking up the bulk of the intermediate passing game targets.
…and here's how Nailor's usage has changed following T.J. Hockenson's return against the Indianapolis Colts, to present day (post-Week 11). What stands out to you? pic.twitter.com/aXleaFNjpy
— 𝙩𝙮𝙡𝙚𝙧 (@TylerTalksBall) November 19, 2024
Nailor has struggled over the last three weeks trying to re-adapt to a low-usage role where he’s only getting one or two targets per game. In addition to the tight ends’ emergence, Nailor is sharing more snaps with Trent Sherfield and Brandon Powell. Unlike earlier in the season, when O’Connell was forced to put “Speedy” on speed dial, Nailor’s role has been reduced to exclusively working the outside areas of the field. The lack of diversity in Nailor’s route tree makes it harder to sell routes because opposing defenses can safely predict which area of the field he’s running toward.
In the Vikings’ Week 9 matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (the game Hockenson returned), there was a play that provided a glimmer of hope for Nailor. During the play below, Minnesota has Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson all on one side of the formation, with Nailor and Aaron Jones on the other side. With the defense’s attention turned towards Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson, Jones sets a pick that gives Nailor enough separation underneath for the go-ahead touchdown.
Nailor gets an easy touchdown on the crossing route here. Perhaps a bit too easy. The Colts wanted an offensive pass interference call against Aaron Jones for an illegal pick, and they may have had a case on that one. pic.twitter.com/SwjNzB81nH
— 𝙩𝙮𝙡𝙚𝙧 (@TylerTalksBall) November 19, 2024
That was Nailor’s only target of the entire game, but the play was designed with him in mind. When you have a low-usage guy who is struggling to get in rhythm, the best thing a coach can do is to get him involved by scheming him open in the red zone. The key to success for Nailor will be re-establishing his efficiency with limited targets, and one positive play can go a long way towards rebuilding confidence. That’s exactly what he needs more of right now.
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