How Hot Should Todd Bowles’ Seat Get?
Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
Three weeks ago, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers appeared to be well on their way to beating the Atlanta Falcons. With 22 seconds left in the game, the Falcons’ offense had the ball at Tampa’s 49-yard line with no timeouts remaining. At this exact point in time, the Buccaneers’ win probability was at 93%, and it seemed like the Bucs would secure a crucial road win against a Falcons team that posed the biggest threat to steal the NFC South.
Instead, the Buccaneers managed to defy all odds and snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. Kirk Cousins connected with Drake London on two key plays for a total of 20 yards during those last 22 seconds. This was enough to set up a 52-yard field goal by Younghoe Koo, which he drilled through the uprights to tie the game at 30 heading into overtime. Atlanta won the coin toss and elected to receive, and their offense only needed four plays before KhaDarel Hodge caught a short pass from Cousins that he turned into a 45-yard game-winning touchdown.
Me personally, I can’t blame Bucs fans for being absolutely furious with that choke job Tampa pulled off. Granted, that first matchup between the Buccaneers and Falcons felt a bit flukey, and some people such as myself thought the loss wasn’t necessarily a harbinger for things to come. That optimism died last week when Kirko Chainz came to Raymond James Stadium and snatched the Bucs’ chain by handing Tampa Bay a 31-26 loss, allowing the Falcons to take the mantle as the best team in the NFC South. With the Buccaneers out of the playoff picture and with sub-50% playoff odds, is this recent loss of momentum enough to put Todd Bowles on the hot seat?
On one hand, Tampa Bay has been pretty successful under Bowles’ leadership. Since being promoted from defensive coordinator to head coach in 2022, Bowles has led this team to two consecutive NFC South division titles with two different quarterbacks. Tom Brady only played one year with Bowles as head coach before retiring, but even after Brady’s retirement, the Bucs managed to stay atop the division with Baker Mayfield under center. Mayfield revived his career in 2023 in Tampa Bay, and signed a three-year, $100 million extension this offseason.
Bowles is a highly respected defensive-minded head coach who the players love, and it may be a bit premature to consider firing him at this juncture. Despite their recent struggles, the Buccaneers are still 4-4, and hope is nowhere near lost. If this team rattles off a couple of wins, they could end up stealing the Philadelphia Eagles’ wild card spot. It certainly helps that the Buccaneers dismantled the Eagles earlier this season, as that head-to-head win will be a factor in tie-breaking procedures should the two teams finish with the same record.
However, the most concerning aspect of the Bucs’ recent woes is the way they’re losing games. Despite being a defensive-minded head coach, the Buccaneers’ defense has been really struggling. Tampa’s defensive unit is allowing 387 yards per game this season, which ranks 30th in the NFL. While the Buccaneers have dealt with injuries to Vita Vea, Calijah Kancey, and Antonie Winfield Jr. throughout the year, a good defensive coach can overcome those injuries to a certain extent.
The fact of the matter is the Buccaneers’ defense has gradually gotten worse year-over-year since he took over. In Bowles’ first season as head coach in 2022, the Bucs ranked 10th in passing defense. In 2023, the team regressed massively and finished the year as the 29th-ranked passing defense. Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse in 2024, we see that Tampa Bay currently has the 30th-ranked passing defense.
The Bucs’ rushing defense has fared better, which is to be expected when you have one of the best nose tackles in the league in Vita Vea as your anchor. In 2022, Tampa was slightly above average with the 15th-ranked rushing defense, and in 2023 they had the fifth-ranked rushing defense in the NFL. But this year, the Buccaneers’ rushing defense ranks 21st in the league. Part of that has to do with Vea and Calijah Kancey suffering early season injuries, but overall Bowles’ defense has left a lot to be desired.
So, should the coach be on the hot seat? If you’re just basing this off of team defense statistics, then absolutely. However, with Bowles’ previous success in 2022 and 2023 and the Bucs still being in playoff contention at 4-4, he has given himself enough room for error to avoid getting canned surprisingly early like Robert Saleh was. That being said, the heat is gradually turning up, and it’s not going to go back down unless the Bucs can solve their problems and get back into the playoffs.
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