Dolphins Keys: Challenge Bills To A Track Meet
Credit: Jasen Vinlove-Imagn Images
The Miami Dolphins are a long shot, but they’ve got no choice but to play it. A tough win on the road against the Buffalo Bills would go a long way to giving them a puncher’s chance (13% playoff odds, that is), but that’s been easier said than done. The Dolphins have famously lost 12 of their last 13 games against Buffalo, as Josh Allen has eaten Miami’s lunch for a 12-2 career head-to-head record.
While Tua Tagovailoa is back, key defensive pieces in Zach Sieler and Jevon Holland will not be in the lineup. This game was never going to be easy, but again, they have little choice but to win. So how can the Dolphins pull off the upset?
Turn Buffalo Into A Track Meet
Usually, the key to winning games against the giants of the NFL is to hunker down and play a conservative, run-oriented game on offense and tough-as-nails defense.
Miami had Sieler and Holland in Week 2 and couldn’t do that at home, which means it feels tough to suggest they can execute that gameplan in Buffalo. So what option do they have left? Double down on the Miami identity and put the game in the hands of Tua, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle. Hill got a spark of life last week upon his QB’s return, now it’s time to set that spark ablaze.
That strategy hasn’t quite worked out for Miami before, but Buffalo is also a lot more vulnerable in their secondary than in years past. From 2021 to 2023, their PFF coverage grade has ranked fifth, tenth, and fourth in the NFL, respectively. This season? They sit 25th in the NFL. If there was a time for Miami’s offense to work on the Bills, it’s now.
And while playing at Buffalo in November sounds like one of those cold-weather games that Miami tends to do poorly in, the forecast for kickoff is 52 degrees and sunny. If you’re the Dolphins, you’d take that every time.
Keep De’Von Achane Involved
Just because the Dolphins should go for a track meet doesn’t mean they can ignore their backfield. De’Von Achane and Jaylen Wright both offer the speed that can keep Buffalo on their heels if Mike McDaniel and Tua can find them time and space, and Miami should work them to their advantage.
The good news is, they don’t have to adjust too much from what they did last week, at least when it comes to Achane. He took 10 carries for 97 yards, and Tagovailoa targeted him eight times, six of which Achane caught for another 50 yards and a touchdown. Beyond Achane, Raheem Mostert got nine carries (19 yards) and one catch on two targets (11 yards). It might be better to lay off Mostert that week and see if Wright can keep up the pressure with his speed whenever Achane needs to be spelled.
Take It To (And From) the Bills
What’s the difference between a competitive game (or even a win!) against the Bill and a blowout? Turnovers. When Miami can force a win in the turnover battle, they give themselves a fighting chance. Look at the gulf in quality of game with and without winning the turnover battle in the Mike McDaniel era:
Won Turnover Battle:
Sept. 25, 2022: Won 21-19
Dec. 17, 2022: Lost 29-32
Jan. 15, 2023: Lost 31-34
Jan. 7, 2024: Lost 14-21
Point Differential: Minus-11
Lost Turnover Battle:
Oct. 1, 2023: Lost 20-48
Sept. 12, 2024: Lost 10-31
Point differential: Minus-49
Any questions? Miami has to play mistake-free, and even then, they might, just maybe, have a shot at winning in Buffalo. Just like they might, just maybe, have a shot at climbing out of their 2-5 hole to make the playoffs. But they gotta roll those dice, and they might, just maybe, pull it off.
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