Does Liam Coen Need A Major Offensive Shift To Beat Baltimore?
Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
Liam Coen has done an admirable job of installing a high-flying offense for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this season. Baker Mayfield has already thrown for nearly 1,500 yards this season, and the Bucs passing offense is a borderline top-10 unit that averages 230.3 yards per game.
The Bucs’ offense under Liam Coen has been similar to Sean McVay’s offense, placing an emphasis on pre-snap motion, vertical concepts, and tailoring his playbook to his personnel, not the other way around. “I was taught in times of crisis, you think players, not plays,” said Coen. “It’s not about what maybe I like, or the play that I might like the most, but what is going to get the ball into our best players’ hands.”
Coen continued: “What can our guys execute at a high level, be able to go do and have confidence in? Also, in the back of my call sheet, I have a player box for multiple players. Ultimately, we want to get the ball in their hands, right now, no questions asked, the coverage is not going to change, it’s not [going to] matter what happens – the ball is going to their hands right now. Because this game is a personnel game, right? And at the end of the day, it’s about those guys.”
But any gameplan must account for their opponent, and you have to wonder if running a modern, McVay-styled offense is the right approach for Sunday’s meeting with the Baltimore Ravens. Perhaps a smarter idea would be to run more of a West Coast offense, emphasizing shorter passing plays that serve as an extension of the run game and an increase in fourth-down attempts. If executed properly, this strategy would help slow the game down, chew time off the clock, and keep Lamar Jackson off the field for as long as possible.
Generally, teams don’t change their entire offensive philosophy from game to game, but Coen’s offense has. The Bucs are coming off a huge win against the New Orleans Saints where the offense dropped over 50 points. Baker threw the ball for over 300 yards, and the run game showed signs of life with Sean Tucker rushing for 136 yards and a touchdown on 9.7 yards per carry. After all, why should the Bucs bother trying to fix something that isn’t broken?
With that being said, Spencer Rattler played much better than he should’ve against the Buccaneers’ defense, and there’s a big difference between playing against a rookie in Rattler versus Jackson. The Ravens offense is extremely efficient, boasting the most yards of total offense in the league. Trying to win in a shootout against the Ravens is a dangerous game.
Baltimore also has the NFL’s best run defense, allowing only 59 yards per game. Although the Buccaneers have been riding the hot hand at running back, their run game has been extremely inconsistent this season. If Rachaad White comes back, then we could potentially see a decrease in rushing efficiency given his struggles running the ball this season and the amount of carries he threatens to take away from Tucker and Bucky Irving.
Coen shouldn’t want to run the ball that much against the Ravens, because their defensive line is primed to win that matchup. Where they are vulnerable, however, is in the secondary. Yes, this is a team that has talented players in the secondary like Marlon Humphrey, Kyle Hamilton, and Brandon Stephens. But despite that, Baltimore ranks 31st in opponent passing yards per game.
The Bucs would be wise to use the short passing game as an extension of the run game. One player worth keeping an eye on is slot receiver Sterling Shepard, who was teammates with Baker Mayfield at Oklahoma. Shepard hasn’t played a ton of snaps behind Jalen McMillian throughout the season, however, that changed last week against the Saints where Shepard played in 75% percent of all offensive snaps, which is a season-high for the veteran receiver. McMillian may be the more promising player long-term, but Shepard has proven to be a competent slot receiver in the past and has pre-existing chemistry with Mayfield.
Coen could have Mayfield go vertical and try to beat Baltimore in a shootout, praying that the defense can make a key stop or two on Jackson and Derrick Henry. Maybe that is enough. But the smart play should be to keep the Ravens’ offense off the field for as long as possible, and chewing up the clock with short, high-percentage passes is the way to accomplish that goal.
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