Did Antoine Winfield Jr. Fix the Bucs’ Defense?
Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
Spoiler: Having your All-Pro Safety in the lineup is a good thing. Even on a day where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense put up 44 of their 51 points in Sunday’s win, the big story of the day might have been Winfield’s return from a Week 1 injury. With Winfield back in the fold, the defense shined, not in small part to their star safety.
Catch. Fumble. And a touchdown for Antoine Winfield Jr.!
📺: #TBvsNO on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/mWrp01OUnD— NFL (@NFL) October 13, 2024
It was a return to form that was desperately needed for the defense, having given up 95 points in their previous three games. And while Winfield wasn’t the only player to get healthy last week (hello, Calijah Kancey, we see you and your sack on Sunday), he was clearly the most impactful.
So, Tampa’s in a good spot, right? Giving up 27 points in the second quarter seems suspect, sure, but one of those New Orleans Saints touchdowns was off a punt return, while another 10 points came from two drives that went a combined 27 yards following Baker Mayfield turnovers. Being ungenerous, however, we can pin 20 points on the defense.
That means in each of their two games with Winfield, the Bucs held the opposing offense to 20 points. Neither was a small feat, in retrospect. The Washington Commanders are tied for second in the NFL — with the Bucs — with 29.7 points per game, and the Saints are tied for fifth (27.8). Their Winfield-having defense gave up 299 and 303 yards in Weeks 1 and 6, respectively, giving them a 301.0 average that would sit ninth in the NFL in yards allowed per game.
In contrast, let’s look at the Bucs defense without Winfield. In those four weeks, their 27.8 points allowed per game, which would be tied with the Los Angeles Rams for 28th in the NFL. They surrendered an average of 398 yards per game, with Week 5 against the Philadelphia Eagles being the only game they held an opponent to under 350 yards. If we just had the four Winfield-less games to go on, Tampa would be the worst yardage defense in the NFL.
It makes sense for the defense to get this big of a bump with Winfield back. He’s a legitimate difference-maker who, frankly, deserves more than his one All-Pro selection. PFF graded him as the league’s best safety in 2023, 11th in 2022, and second in 2021. Todd Bowles has built his defense around Winfield’s talents.
But it might not be a cure-all. The numbers with and without Winfield are stark, yes, but both of those games came against rookie quarterbacks. Jayden Daniels has been a revelation in the NFL, but Tampa drew him for his debut game, when he wasn’t fully unleashed as a passer. Spencer Rattler also made his debut on Sunday and was a considerably lesser prospect than Daniels. While Tampa drew Bo Nix in Week 3 without Winfield, they also faced Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, and Jalen Hurts and their nine combined Pro Bowl appearances. That’s a significantly harder slate of QBs.
The next four weeks will test how much impact Winfield has on the team. Lamar Jackson, a grudge match with Cousins, Patrick Mahomes, and Brock Purdy are going to put Winfield, the secondary, and the full defense through the wringer. If you’re wondering whether Winfield is the big fix this unit needs, worry not. This time next month, we’ll know the answer.
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