Connor Bedard’s Sophomore Slump Is Better Than You Think
Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
After scoring 22 goals and 61 points as a rookie last season, the sky was supposed to be the limit for Connor Bedard. There have been few trials-by-fire like last year’s Chicago Blackhawks, but Bedard acquitted himself and more. Then Chicago went out and got him help in Teuvo Teräväinen and Tyler Bertuzzi to solidify the forward group. What was he capable of? We were going to find out.
Or so we thought. Through 16 games, Bedard is still waiting to launch into the stratosphere. Or even crack five goals. He’s scored three while adding another 10 assists. While few would bat an eye for most other players “only” getting 13 points in 16 games — no one in Tampa Bay is writing a Jake Guentzel thinkpiece — Bedard is now getting his share of scrutiny. What’s wrong? Is it his linemates? The competition? Has he lost his confidence?
It’s natural to worry, but, to offer a counterpoint: Relaaaaaaax.
When you see a big change in anyone’s production, the first thing you should ask yourself is: Are they playing any differently? Are they creating more or fewer chances? Are they passing up shots, or going for low-percentage plays? If not, it’s a safe bet everything is going to go back to normal soon. And on paper, 2024-25 Bedard doesn’t look like the rookie version — he looks better.
Bedard at 5-on-5, 2023-24: 7.9 shots per hour; 8.9 scoring chances per hour
Bedard at 5-on-5, 2024-25: 9.7 shots per hour; 10.2 scoring chances per hour
For someone with Bedard’s shot, you want to see that he’s using it on a frequent basis, and he is. He’s firing almost two more shots per hour, and it’s resulting in more scoring chances per hour. Looking at his shot map for this season, and Bedard is getting his shots from where you’d want to get them: By the net and in the high slot.
Those longer-distance shots from the top of the slot technically have a lower expected goal chance (around 5-10% odds of going in), but Bedard’s shot has been special enough that he dined out in those areas of the ice last season. Six of his 16 5-on-5 goals came from beyond the faceoff dots, so this isn’t a case where a young star is finding out he can’t beat NHL goalies from distance. He does — and has done so twice already this season.
Even with the chances, though, people are still concerned. The Athletic’s Scott Powers wrote on Tuesday:
“In Bedard’s last two games, not only was his goal production absent but so were the chances. He had one shot attempt, which wasn’t on net, in five-on-five play against the Dallas Stars on Thursday and then again just one shot attempt, which was on net, against the Minnesota Wild on Sunday.”
And while you’d rather see him get more shots than fewer, this isn’t an unfamiliar story with any player in an extended slump. How many times do you hear “he’s gripping the stick too tight” on the average broadcast, or see a slumping player in a drought try to force a play, or pass when they should shoot? Bedard might be superhuman, but human is at least half of that equation.
The ending of that story is just as familiar: The star gets one, and the floodgates open. And they will open. Obviously, his NHL history doesn’t have much to draw on, but he shot 10.7% last season, and there’s no chance he’s a sub-6% shooter. He’s just got to punch one in.
And the fastest way to do that is to have him load up on shots on the power play. He’s got 11 shots on the man advantage, which actually ranks second on the team (Bertuzzi has 12). That’s just 17% of the shots, which doesn’t feel like enough for a unit that should be built around Bedard’s shot. Getting some easy goals on the board at 5-on-4 should get his confidence going and turn down the scrutiny.
But even with the lower goal total, we’re still looking at a lot of progress from Bedard from last season to this. He might not have caught fire with his linemates, but the improvement of his two-way game and the talent around him has shored up his on-ice numbers. He’s near the break-even point in both goals and expected goals at 5-on-5, which is far ahead of where he was as a rookie. And even a version of Bedard that’s shooting 5.7% is still on pace for a 66-point season.
Bedard is going to turn the corner soon and put this slump behind him. Once that happens? The sky’s still the limit.
Up Next