Can Zach Sieler Change Miami’s Defensive Strategy?
Credit: Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images
Help seems to be on the way for the Miami Dolphins’ defense. Mike McDaniel said that he is “optimistic” regarding Zach Sieler’s availability for the Dolphins primetime matchup against the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football. There is also a chance that Bradley Chubb is cleared to practice this week, though his status for the Rams game is less certain.
Both would be an immense boost to Anthony Weaver, who likes to be aggressive as a defensive play-caller, often bringing five or more guys to try and get after the quarterback. If anything, Weaver has tried to compensate for the prolonged absence of Chubb, Sieler, and Jaelan Phillips by doubling down on his attacking mindset. The Dolphins currently have the 13th-highest blitz percentage (27.2%) in the league, and I don’t think Phins fans will ever be totally against Miami sending pressure, even when the injuries offer diminishing returns. After all, aggressive defenses are fun to watch.
Nevertheless, I have my concerns with that strategy this week. The Rams last played in primetime against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 8. What’s famous about the Vikings’ defense, led by old… uh… not-friend Brian Flores, is that they hold the highest blitz percentage (39.9%) in the NFL. Although Matthew Stafford struggled with turnovers this season, he was absolutely unfazed whenever Flores brought the blitz. To be fair, Minnesota’s interior defensive line is lacking in talent, but can Sieler’s return allow the Dolphins to change their strategy defensively?
Matthew Stafford against the blitz yesterday (via @NextGenStats):
0 pressures, 0 sacks
9/12 for 131 yards
110.1 QB RatingAll of those are season-highs against a Vikings defense that gets pressure at a high rate. More on Stafford's stellar performance ⬇️https://t.co/4i1C8y79kE
— Wyatt Miller (@wymill07) October 25, 2024
The key for Miami will be whether or not they can generate pressure when sending four. Everybody knows that Sieler’s presence will help this defense generate more pressure, but will it actually solve the Dolphins’ biggest flaw? Weaver’s defense has been woefully inefficient at rushing the passer despite their high blitz frequency.
Pro Football Focus recently created a new metric called disruption rate, which evaluates the number of designed pass plays that do not result in a targeted pass. As of Week 7, Miami had the 10th-worst disruption rate (17.3%) in the league. Additionally, the Dolphins defense had the third-worst sack percentage (4.2%), trailing only the Carolina Panthers and the Atlanta Falcons.
But that’s where Sieler’s return comes in, as it provides an exploitable mismatch working in the Dolphins’ favor. The two weakest links within the Rams’ offensive line are left guard Justin Dedich and center Beaux Limmer, who both happen to be rookies.
Dedich is undersized for his position at 6-foot-2 and 300 pounds, which contributes to his tendency to struggle against bull rushes from more powerful defensive linemen. Meanwhile, Limmer is an offensive guard by trade who only had 13 career starts at center at Arkansas and is still learning the nuances of the position. Both players have struggled in pass protection as well. Limmer’s pass-blocking ranks 29th out of 34 centers, while Dedich’s pass-blocking ranks 68th out of 73 guards.
In theory, Weaver should now have the ability to play more conservatively on defense, putting seven guys in coverage. Jalen Ramsey is still a premier cornerback, and Kendall Fuller is a solid player to have as your second starter on the outside. Cam Smith hasn’t been great as a slot corner in lieu of injured Kader Kohou, and he still has a lot of upside as a former second-round pick. Talent at cornerback isn’t an issue for the Dolphins.
What is something to worry about, is the current state of the Dolphins’ linebacker room. We looked at this last week, but neither of Miami’s starting linebackers are particularly great in coverage. Both Jordyn Brooks and David Long Jr. are highly athletic, big-bodied inside linebackers who are better suited rushing the passer than they are playing in space and having to read the quarterback. Brooks’ coverage grade currently sits at 52.1, while Long’s coverage grade is 39.2.
Sieler being healthy again stands to tamp down these problems. If his presence helps foster a more efficient pass-rushing unit, then that could allow the Dolphins to blitz fewer players with more success. However, if Miami’s defense continues to have trouble with pass-rushing efficiency it could put Weaver in a precarious position where he’s be forced to blitz Stafford, simply hoping that the future Hall-of-Famer doesn’t carve up the Dolphins’ defense on primetime television like he did with the Vikings two weeks ago.
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