Can Tua Tagovailoa Save The Dolphins From Themselves?
Credit: Jasen Vinlove-Imagn Images
Guess who’s back, back again. Tua’s back, tell a friend! Yes, after four long, painful weeks of watching Skylar Thompson and Tyler Huntley play football, the Miami Dolphins’ starting quarterback has been cleared to practice. Tua Tagovailoa is expected to start for the Dolphins against Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals this upcoming Sunday. Tua’s return has brought with it a ton of good vibes in the locker room. Tyreek Hill spoke to reporters on Wednesday practically begging fantasy owners to start him this week.
Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill tells those who have him in fantasy football, “We’re back, baby! Strike up the f—ing band! Start me this week!” pic.twitter.com/tQT16V8sRI
— David Furones (@DavidFurones_) October 23, 2024
Tua coming back couldn’t have come at a much better time for Miami. We witnessed the Dolphins get blown out by the Seattle Seahawks on primetime television in a road game that was virtually unwinnable from the start. Then the Phins were handed another blowout loss to a god-awful Tennessee Titans team on Monday Night Football. Any hope that was gained from the team’s win over the New England Patriots ahead of the Week 6 bye was subsequently torn to shreds against an Indianapolis Colts team that was actively trying to throw the game away.
Miami has gotten their butts kicked repeatedly over the past few weeks and locker room morale has been at an all-time low. Now that the Dolphins have a legitimate starting QB, everything seems to be rainbows and roses over in Miami Gardens. Despite all of that, this is still a 2-4 football team that keeps shooting themselves in the foot, time and time again. Tua’s absence isn’t an excuse for the Phins playing sloppy football, and there have been enough red flags to wonder if he can really save the Dolphins from their biggest enemy: themselves.
Penalties have been a major problem for the Phins this season. The NFL has implemented a new set of rules regarding what is and what isn’t an illegal shift, which has greatly impacted a Miami Dolphins offense that relies heavily on pre-snap motions. The Dolphins currently lead the league in combined illegal formation, illegal shift, and illegal motion penalties with twelve on the season. To make matters worse, Miami’s o-line is tied for the fifth-most combined false start and offensive holding penalties, and the team as a whole is the eighth-most penalized in the NFL.
Unforced errors have been part of the reason why the Dolphins have struggled on third downs. Whether it’s a five-yard illegal shift penalty or a ten-yard offensive holding penalty, it makes it that much harder to sustain drives. Statistically speaking, Miami has been one of the worst offensive teams in the NFL. Over the last three weeks, the Dolphins hold the worst third-down conversion percentage, and the only team that has been worse at keeping possessions alive on all downs are the Cleveland Browns.
— Tyler Ireland (@TylerIrelandNFL) October 24, 2024
There is a very legitimate argument to be made that the Dolphins’ offensive woes will continue even with Tagovailoa as the starter. Tua is an above-average starting quarterback, but he isn’t a miracle worker. If Miami continues to be one of the league’s most penalized teams, then these problems may be too much for Tua to overcome on his own. Fortunately, there’s a silver lining to these stats which paints a brighter picture for the future.
Let’s start with Miami’s dreaded third-down conversion rate. Through the first two weeks when Tua Tagovailoa was healthy, the Dolphins’ third down conversion rate was ranked fourth-best in the league. Miami has also cleaned up those penalties in recent weeks. The line graph below shows all of the Phins’ accepted illegal formation, shift, and motion penalties through the first six games.
— Tyler Ireland (@TylerIrelandNFL) October 24, 2024
Notice how the majority of those penalties came in Week 3 and Week 4. I shouldn’t have to spell out what major injury happened between Week 2 and Week 3 that would negatively impact the Dolphins’ offense, thus creating an environment for more miscommunications to occur. The following graph is very similar, and it also illustrates how many penalties were accepted each week. Only this time, it’s for offensive holding and false start infractions.
— Tyler Ireland (@TylerIrelandNFL) October 24, 2024
This chart shows that over half of the Dolphins’ penalties in this category came in those first two weeks. From Week 1 to Week 2, Miami committed a total of ten combined offensive holding and false start penalties, but that number dropped to nine from Weeks 3 to 7. What’s encouraging is that the frequency of those penalties has been on a steady decline since those first couple of weeks, which perhaps means we can attribute those mistakes to rust.
Lastly, this chart shows the total amount of accepted penalties per week, regardless of what the infraction was.
— Tyler Ireland (@TylerIrelandNFL) October 24, 2024
For context, the league-wide average is 6.4 penalties per week. For most of the season, the Dolphins have been well above league average in penalties committed. That’s less than ideal, but the positive takeaway here is that Miami has been hovering slightly below the league average in that regard over the past couple of weeks.
The biggest takeaway from all these stats is that the Miami Dolphins have been slowly reducing their unforced errors in recent weeks, even with a backup quarterback at the helm. If these trends continue at this trajectory, Tua won’t need to save the Dolphins from themselves, because they’ll be operating at a league-average level in terms of how often they’re committing penalties. The hope for Miami is that Tua’s return helps these players get their swagger back. If Hill’s current mood is any indication, then things appear to be heading in the right direction.
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