Can Josh Oliver Seize The Moment?
Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
If you asked 100 Minnesota Vikings fans what player breaking out could make-or-break their season, most would land on one of several big names. Some might point out a big second year jump by Jordan Addison could by huge. Others might point to Aaron Jones, who is bringing a dynamic style of running to a backfield that has been devoid of stability for some time now, could re capture his previous status in a new system. The defense lovers might look for Ivan Pace Jr. to show the maturation that comes from getting a full NFL season under his belt. Those are all good answers.
But let me, a Vikings Sicko of the highest order, tell you what player I’ve got pegged as a key to the 2024 season: Tight end Josh Oliver.
I can hear your reaction all the way from inside your phone: Why?
Unfortunately, this is where I have to remind you that fellow TE and actual, 9th-century CE, Ivar-the-Boneless-type Viking T.J. Hockenson is starting the year on Physically Unable to Perform list. This means the star tight end isn’t eligible to return to game action until Week 5 of the regular season.
Week 5 is far from a guaranteed — or even reasonable — target, however. Hockenson will likely miss more than four games. It’s basic math. His ACL tear occurred on December 24, 2023. Due to swelling, the surgery to repair the ligament couldn’t take place until January 29. The average timeline for recovery for this type of injury is 9-12 months.
Add all of this up, and it doesn’t take too big of a leap to justify the thought that Hockenson may miss a significant portion of the season. It’s possible we won’t see him at all. This leaves a vacuum at the TE position and a golden opportunity for someone to step up and show what they can do at the NFL level.
There are currently three tight ends on the Vikings roster: Nick Muse, Johnny Mundt, and Oliver. None of these three have blown the doors off the NFL, combining for a total of zero seasons where they’ve topped 25 receptions. Muse only has one reception in two seasons, and while Mundt is a veteran of six years, his career-highs in yards (172) and touchdowns (1) came in 2023 (his 17 receptions fell two short of his 2022 season).
Oliver, entering his fifth season, hadn’t done much more before arriving in Minnesota. His 2022 with the Baltimore Ravens saw him log unimpressive career bests in receptions (14), yards (149), and touchdowns (2). In fairness to Oliver, however, he was stuck behind none other than Mark Andrews, who of course got the bulk of the passing downs and opportunities. Largely stuck behind another elite tight end in Hockenson in 2023, Oliver still managed to build on the momentum of his previous season, registering 22 catches, 213 yards, and another two scores.
Now the path is clear for Oliver, and there’s reason for me to believe in a breakout. It was a while ago, but it’s important to remember Oliver wasn’t just a “blocking” tight end in college. His 56 receptions in his final season at San Jose State University ranked third among FBS TEs that season.
Even more importantly, he passes the eye test. I’m a firm believer in the Denny Green school of thought, where you watch a player and focus on what they CAN do, as opposed to what they CANNOT do. Numbers and physical traits are helpful, but if you aren’t careful, they can blind you to what a guy is capable of. From what Oliver showed us last season, there’s more to him than his stats suggest.
Oliver doesn’t just have a wide-open opportunity on the depth chart, he’s playing for a team that needs him to succeed. While having outside weapons like Jefferson and Jordan Addison are great, Kevin O’Connell is going to want Sam Darnold to have some sort of security blanket. That’s often the job description of the tight end, so Oliver has a chance to establish himself early as a reliable target for Darnold in high-stress situations.
The table is set for Oliver and it’ll be up to him to seize the moment. Hockenson has big shoes to fill, but it’s not like the Vikings have never had a tight end come out of nowhere to have a breakout season. We’re gonna Remember Some Guys today. In 2007, Visanthe Shiancoe came over from the New York Giants after four seasons where he caught 35 passes… combined. No matter. Shiancoe would go on to be a rock-solid tight end, highlighted by him being a dynamic part of the Brett Favre Vikings in 2009, where he snagged 56 receptions for 566 yards and 11 touchdowns. Let’s hope we see some shadows of Shiancoe this year with Josh Oliver.
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