Baker Mayfield Continues To Do More With Less
Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
Sunday saw Baker Mayfield face a test like he’d never had before in a Tampa Bay Buccaneers uniform. With both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans out of the lineup against the Atlanta Falcons, Mayfield took the field without the players on the receiving end of 49% of Mayfield’s passing yards and 11 of his 18 touchdowns. Was Mayfield truly the level of quarterback Tampa needed, or just an option that Godwin and Evans could elevate? We were going to find out.
The Bucs may have lost 31-26, sending their record down to .500, but if you wanted hope that Mayfield could keep the team afloat, you got it. We’re not talking about a mistake-free day from Baker — he turned the ball over twice in Atlanta territory, a major factor in the loss. But the good news is, Mayfield looked more-or-less like himself, even without his two biggest threats. After the dust settled, Mayfield had 330 yards with three touchdowns (and the two picks), an outing that gave him a passer rating of 94.6 — or about the level of a top-15 QB league-wide.
How?
As our own Preet Shah mentioned on Monday, Liam Coen had Mayfield executing a much different offense than the downfield attack Tampa was known for last season. That version of the Bucs had Mayfield use his big arm to take deep shots on the regular. His Intended Air Yards per attempt was sixth in the NFL, with his average attempt going 8.5 yards down the field. Basically, he played like Josh Allen or Jordan Love.
Coen has already been phasing out the big play from Tampa’s repertoire this season, but without Evans and Godwin to stretch the field, they all but abandoned the pretense of the deep ball. We can see just how little Mayfield bothered to air it out, with 34 of his 50 passing attempts coming within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.
This short-passing approach allowed Mayfield to be hyper-efficient on Sunday. Within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, Baker was 32-for-34 for 236 yards, and the short passes kept the offense moving the chains. Mayfield went 9-for-12 on third downs, converting seven of those for a fresh set, and setting up a QB sneak on 4th-and-1 on an eighth.
Compared to last season, that’s a radical change, but it’s really more of the same offense Coen and Mayfield have executed this year. Just more so.
The short game has been where Mayfield has truly thrived this season. Baker has the NFL’s second-most passing attempts between 0 and 9 yards from scrimmage, behind only the Seattle Seahawks’ Geno Smith. In terms of efficiency, Mayfield is unparalleled. Pro Football Focus gives him an 89.1 grade in that range, which is far and away the league’s best. So are his 12 touchdowns on short throws, which is four more than second-place Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow.
Paradoxically, Mayfield is having more success than last season despite going from the top of the heap in throwing deep to 31st of 35 quarterbacks in Intended Air Yards per attempt. Coen and Mayfield are letting their pass-catchers run wild, and they’ve done a lot of heavy lifting when it comes to gaining yardage. Baker ranks fifth in the NFL with his receivers breaking off an average of 6.7 yards after the catch.
You want to give Coen and Mayfield the credit for adjusting to the losses of his top two receivers… and if they had adjusted, you should. But the fact is, we’re seeing the Coen offense in full force now, and it’s been perfectly suited for both his quarterback and for surviving without Evans and Godwin. It’s not ideal to see this offense forced into being quite this one-dimensional, but if not for another poor showing from the secondary, Mayfield and the Bucs’ offense may well have done just enough to pull off a win.
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