The Kenny Pickett Equation
Photo Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports
The Pittsburgh Steelers’ biggest storyline heading into 2023 is unquestionably the progression of quarterback Kenny Pickett. Is he the long-term answer at the position? And how does his progress affect the Black and Gold’s future plans?
The NFL world is obsessed with quarterback greatness. We love to dissect it, debate it, and rank it. And it all makes sense from afar. The league’s history is littered with great quarterbacks who held up Lombardi trophies. From Bart Starr to Patrick Mahomes, the math equation has always seemed simple: Good Team + Great Quarterback = Super Bowl
But lost in the “GOAT” conversations and QB-ranking debates is how the modern NFL has changed the conversation. Not whether greatness at the position is or isn’t crucial, but how does greatness (and the money that goes with it) fit around a viable roster.
The inception of the NFL’s salary cap was supposed to put an end to the era of dynasties.
Enter Tom Brady.
While other all-time greats took the top of the league of money, Brady consistently took pay cuts to allow his team to put together elite rosters. Taking nothing away from Brady and his unbelievable run, it’s important to note that Brady has had more top-10 defenses in his career than Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Mahomes combined.
Before Mahomes’ win last year, in which he accounted for 17% of his team’s cap, Tom Brady’s 12.61% in 2021 made him the highest cap-percentage quarterback to ever win the game, surpassing his 2018 victory with the Patriots, when he represented 12.42%.
So, other than Mahomes’ last season, in 22 years no quarterbacks above 12.75% won a Super Bowl.
To put that in context, here are the quarterbacks who earned above 12.5% of their team’s cap in the last year:
|
PLAYER
|
POS
|
CONTRACT AVERAGE CAP PCT
|
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QB | 24.15 | ||
| 2 |
Russell Wilson DEN |
QB | 23.30% | |
| 3 |
Kyler MurrayARI |
QB | 22.14% | |
| 4 |
Deshaun Watson CLE |
QB | 22.09% | |
| 5 | QB | 21.61% | ||
| 6 |
Josh Allen BUF |
QB | 20.66% | |
| 7 |
Derek Car LV |
QB | 19.45% | |
| 8 |
Matthew Stafford LAR |
QB | 19.21% | |
Dak Prescot DAL |
QB | 19.21% | ||
| 10 |
Kirk Cousins MIN |
QB | 16.81% | |
| 11 |
Jared Goff DET |
QB | 16.09% | |
| 12 |
Carson Wentz WAS |
QB | 15.37% | |
| 13 |
Matt Rya IND |
QB | 14.41% | |
| 14 |
Ryan Tannehill TEN |
QB | 14.17% |
Some of these guys fall into what I lovingly call “The Alex Smith Zone.” These are the quarterbacks who aren’t quite good enough to be elite but are still good enough to get paid. What’s worse, they usually aren’t bad enough to lose their jobs or allow their team a top draft pick. You can spend all the time you want debating whether these guys belong in the upper echelon of NFL QBs, but the truth is if they were there wouldn’t be a debate. It’s worst-case scenario: football purgatory.
I should note that I named The Alex Smith Zone long before the rise of Kirk Cousins. It’s probably time for an update. Kirk Cousins is the Joe Montana of Alex Smiths.
Mahomes may just be a cheat code in all of this, so pause the article here and ask yourself: Does my team have Patrick Mahomes? If you answered yes, feel free to click out and move on with your day. This may not apply to you.
If the answer was no, continue.
It’s no coincidence Russell Wilson, Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, and Mahomes all won titles on their rookie deals. And that Roethlisbeger and Manning added second titles on years that their restructured extensions created low cap hits.
To win in a salary cap NFL, your equation has to make sense. The further the level of your quarterback rises above the level of your quarterback’s salary, the better you are positioned to go all-in.
As Pittsburgh surveys their division, they see three different versions of the same roster. For the foreseeable future, the Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, and Cincinnati Bengals will have quarterback-dominated salary caps. The rest of the AFC has much of the same with Allen and Herbert.
The second year of the Kenny Pickett experience provides an opportunity to realistically assess the sophmore quarterback’s progress and determine how far he is above his current contract — and, accordingly, how aggressively the Steelers should handle their following offseason.
If Pickett is 32-20th in the league in 2023:
It’s time to go back to the drawing board. You still have the makings of a good supporting cast and shouldn’t waste it chasing a youngster who couldn’t climb into the top 20 in his first two seasons.
If Pickett is in the 20-15 range:
You can certainly give him another year to see where this whole thing goes, but it wouldn’t be wise to commit cap dollars to the present that affect your long term.
If Pickett’s in the 15-10 range:
It’s time to start adding pieces. But be careful, he’s not out of the Alex Smith Zone yet. Don’t put yourself in a position to have an elite roster over-perform and raise his value ala Dak Prescott. You don’t want to financially commit to him if he can’t get you over the hump. Give your self some wiggle room.
If Pickett’s top 10:
Spare no expense. You are officially in a two-year Super Bowl window. Go all in, boom or bust, and try to get the Black and Gold their seventh title.
It will be a fun year for Steelers fans as hope surrounding the team continues to build. But Omar Khan and crew should be watching carefully — and patiently — to see if their young quarterback allows them to take advantage of the NFL’s current winning equation.
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