Stepping Out Of The Steelers’ Waterfall
Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports
A waterfall is a magnificent piece of nature. It’s also a beautiful metaphor for the way we receive and perceive information. Where one stands in relationship to the waterfall changes ones perspective.
If you were to stand under Niagra Falls, the weight of the water would crush you. But if you were to step behind the waterfall, you could simply watch the water as it passes by you, leaving you unaffected by its intensity. In turn, you can choose when to step into the water and when to step out.
Since Sunday evening, I’ve spent some time in the football waterfall. Finally, I’ve stepped out.
Within minutes of the Wild Card matchups being set, the spread soared to +10 for the Pittsburgh Steelers. For those of you who don’t gamble, this means that the bookmakers believe the point difference between the Buffalo Bills and the Steelers on Sunday will be roughly 10 points in favor of Buffalo. That– in case you were wondering– is the largest spread of the weekend.
Frankly, I’m baffled by it. I’ve scoured the internet in search of valid reasoning behind it. I’ve looked for articles, sound bites, or interviews that made a legitimate case for the Bills as absolute favorites. Nothing sincere has come to mind. Thus, I’ve decided to step out of the waterfall, watch this national media narrative run wild, and come to a conclusion of my own.
One of the most popular narratives surrounding the Steelers’ certain demise on Sunday is that the Bills have “finished strong.” Media members cannot believe that the Bills returned from a 6-6 record and made the playoffs. Meanwhile, those same individuals seem to discard the 7-7 record the Steelers held after Mitch Trubsiky was at the helm for two weeks.
The Steelers managed to make the dance with numerous instances of adversity in a division with all teams finishing above .500 – a feat that hasn’t happened since the 1930s.
As I step back off my soapbox and look at this game objectively, it’s easy to see how one could get carried away with the Josh Allen show. Yet there is no guarantee that the good version of Josh Allen will show up on Sunday. Sure, he could throw for 300-plus yards and three touchdowns. He could also throw three interceptions and hand the Steelers the game.
If you think I’m being hyperbolic, take a look at the five-game stretch that the media pundits are drooling over.
Buffalo beat the skidding Kansas City Chiefs thanks to a terribly-timed offsides penalty. They were blown out by the Dallas Cowboys. They edged out the Los Angeles Chargers, sans Justin Herbert, by just two points. They held on to beat the moribund New England Patriots by less than a touchdown. And they won on Sunday thanks to a punt return and a circus catch in the back of the end zone. Forgive me if I’m not fawning over Buffalo’s resumé of late.
I don’t think the Steelers match up terribly with the Bills. I will be ready to eat crow if the Steelers lose big, but I just don’t see the lopsided tilt that fans are being presented.
With the cold weather on Sunday, I look forward to seeing Najee Harris run between the tackles. He could gash a banged-up linebacker group for Buffalo. The Bills have a formidable interior line, but I believe the Steelers can handle it both in the run game and in pass protection.
Defensively, Joey Porter Jr. has flourished since earning his starting role. He has allowed the fewest receptions allowed of any qualifying corner in the NFL this season (min. 50 targets). His allowed passer rating is 68.4. For context, Trubisky’s passer rating this season is 71.9. Porter has earned these stats covering the likes of Ja’Marr Chase, DeAndre Hopkins, D.K. Metcalf, and Puka Nacua. While Baffalo’s Stefon Diggs is a top-tier receiver, it shouldn’t be one-sided.
The Steelers are also welcoming back the two starting safeties, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Damontae Kazee, both of whom have been absent in the three-game win streak. They will provide a great deal of support both as tacklers and in the coverage game.
The inside linebackers in black and gold have continued to shore up in recent weeks. Myles Jack has drastically improved communication since wearing the green dot, and Elandon Roberts is trending in the right direction since his injury. While Mark Robinson is far from desirable as a cover linebacker, he tackles well and should be able to help the Steeler’s interior minimize James Cook.
Now, the elephant in the room: Pittsburgh will be without T.J. Watt. There’s not much to say on the matter. He’s the DPOY in the eyes of anyone who pays attention to football, and he will be standing on the sideline on Sunday.
The Steelers will employ a money-ball approach to help remedy the situation by using Nick Herbig and Markus Golden. Herbig has recorded three sacks and two forced fumbles in his limited snaps. Golden has four sacks on the season with also minimal opportunity. Together, they could at least provide a Band-Aid on the edge opposite Alex Highsmith.
Finally, Mason Rudolph has stood tall. He has thrown the ball well and hasn’t turned it over. He currently leads the league in completion percentage. I know, three games isn’t much to pull from, but if you put him side by side with Allen over the past three weeks, he has the same number of touchdowns, and Allen has three interceptions to Rudolph’s zero.
I know it’s a tall task. Sunday could be a track meet and the Bills could hang 30 on the Steelers. My gut tells a different story. If the Steelers finish the game +3 in the turnover margin and limit damage in special teams, the game should be in hand. If not, no one thought they could do it anyway.
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