Pittsburgh Is Currently the NFL’s Best Bet
Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
The clock is ticking for NFL betting degenerates. With Week 1 less than two weeks away, there’s still some time left to pounce on the easiest season-long bet for 2023: over 8.5 wins for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The easy way out would be to point to Mike Tomlin having never won fewer than eight games over his 16-year career as head coach of the Steelers. Forget for just one second that the football world has never celebrated someone for being mediocre more than Tomlin. After all, the universally celebrated head coach with the never-ending supply of fun catch phrases hasn’t won a playoff game since 2016. Since 2011, Tomlin’s Steelers have won a whopping three playoff games. Yet here we are, still pretending that Tomlin is one of the best head coaches in the league.
No, the Steelers aren’t going to exceed their over/under win total because of the witchcraft that Tomlin has cast on his narrative around the league. Shoot, Pittsburgh managed to win nine games last season with the combo of a rookie quarterback and Mitch Trubisky leading the way — even after 2021 NFL Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt missed seven games with a pectoral injury. As long as Kenny Pickett takes even a modest jump in Year 2 and Watt can stay on the field, it’s hard not to like Pittsburgh’s chances of winning nine games.
Having said that, sometimes the easiest answer is right beneath our noses. And the biggest “why” behind Pittsburgh winning at least nine games this season can be found by simply looking at the Steelers’ schedule in 2023. Aside from the murderers row of contenders in the AFC North, Pittsburgh has about as easy of a schedule as one could possibly hope for. Excluding their six divisional games, here’s how the Steelers’ schedule shakes out. Let’s start with their cakewalk of non-divisional road games:
Week 3 @ Las Vegas Raiders (o/u 6.5 wins)
Week 4 @ Houston Texans (o/u 6.5 wins)
Week 7 @ Los Angeles Rams (o/u 6.5 wins)
Week 15 @ Indianapolis Colts (o/u 6.5 wins)
Week 17 @ Seattle Seahawks (o/u 8.5 wins)
As we all know, NFL rosters have a tendency of looking a hell of a lot different in August than they do in October and November. Some teams will be more fortunate than others with the dreaded injury bug. But as long as the Steelers don’t get completely decimated by health woes, they should easily win those first four road games against teams that will likely be jockeying for position for the top-overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Not to mention they’ll have a decent chance to beat a fellow preseason 8.5-wins team on the road at Seattle. For the sake of being level-headed today, let’s say the Steelers go 4-1 in those five non-divisional road games.
Next, let’s take a look at Pittsburgh’s non-divisional home schedule. It’s worth mentioning that Tomlin experienced his first four-loss campaign at Heinz Field last season. But, prior to 2022, Tomlin has historically rattled off wins in five or six home games per year.
Week 1 vs San Francisco 49ers (o/u 10.5 wins)
Week 8 vs Jacksonville Jaguars (o/u 9.5 wins)
Week 9 vs Tennessee Titans (o/u 7.5 wins)
Week 10 vs Green Bay Packers (o/u 7.5 wins)
Week 13 vs Arizona Cardinals (o/u 4.5 wins)
Week 14 vs New England Patriots (o/u 7.5 wins)
Of those six home games, they’ll be hosting four teams that the oddsmakers have pegged as inferior. This includes the clear leader in the clubhouse for the worst team in the NFL, the Arizona Cardinals. And as long as the Steelers take care of business on their home turf in those four games in which they’ll likely be favored, it’s fair to expect that they’ll go, at minimum, 4-2 in those non-divisional home games.
Which leaves them at a predictable eight wins before we even begin to worry about the six AFC North games. Is it too much to ask for Tomlin to win just one divisional game this season? Of course it’s not.
Week 2 vs Cleveland Browns (o/u 9.5 wins)
Week 5 vs Baltimore Ravens (o/u 10.5 wins)
Week 11 @ Cleveland Browns
Week 12 @ Cincinnati Bengals (o/u 11.5 wins)
Week 16 vs Cincinnati Bengals
Week 18 @ Baltimore Ravens
With the way Pittsburgh’s early-season schedule shakes out, there’s a realistic chance they come out the gate firing. Granted, it’s a big ask, but if the Steelers can steal a win at home in Week 1 against the San Francisco 49ers, they’re legitimately looking at winning seven or eight of their first nine games. The only real tests over the first two-and-a-half months of the season are home games against the 49ers, Browns, Ravens, and Jaguars.
Pittsburgh has the luxury of arguably the league’s easiest non-divisional schedule this season. That alone will carry anyone betting the over on the Steelers’ 8.5 wins across the finish line with some extra cheddar in their pockets.
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